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US unemployment: 5 things to look for in Thursday's jobs report – Aljazeera.com

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With the viral outbreak worsening and unemployment at Depression-era levels, the government will issue on Thursday what will almost surely be another remarkable jobs report.

Hiring in June might have reached the highest monthly total on record – three million. Yet, so deep were the layoffs during the lockdowns that a gain so large would still leave tens of millions of Americans out of work and the unemployment rate in double digits. And even a jobless rate above 10 percent would not fully capture the scope of the pandemic’s damage to the job market and the economy.

The economic bounce produced by the initial lifting of shutdown orders may have run its course as the recovery stalls and business re-openings flatten. 

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In states that are suffering the sharpest spikes in reported virus cases – Texas, Florida, Arizona and others in the Sun Belt – progress has reversed, with businesses closing again and workers losing jobs, in some cases for a second time.

However, because Thursday’s jobs report will be based on data gathered in the second week of June, it will still likely reflect an improving trend. The plateau of the past week will likely appear in the July jobs report.

Economists have forecast that employers added three million jobs in June and that the unemployment rate dropped to 12.3 percent from 13.3 percent in May, according to data provider FactSet. If they are correct, the job gain will top the surprise increase of 2.5 million in May, which was a record.

But it would also mean that Americans have still recovered just one-quarter of the jobs they lost in March and April, when states engineered widespread shutdowns of restaurants, bars, stores, hotels movie theatres and other retail establishments.

Will the government count everyone correctly?

The government counts the number of unemployed through a monthly survey. Since March, its survey-takers have been classifying many Americans as employed even if their employers are closed because of the pandemic. In many cases, these people believe they still have jobs. But the Labor Department said if they are not working, they should be considered temporarily unemployed.

A nurse helps people put a woman in a wheelchair at a hospital in Houston, Texas, one of the states which has seen the sharpest spikes in reported coronavirus cases [File: Callaghan O’Hare/Reuters]

In May, 4.9 million people were counted as working when they should have been counted as unemployed. Had these people been properly classified, the unemployment rate would have been reported as 16.4 percent, not 13.3 percent.

Even accounting for the misclassification, unemployment is still declining, if only slowly. In April, if the same adjustment had been made, the jobless rate would have been 19.5 percent instead of 14.7 percent.

How many layoffs are permanent?

Another unique aspect of the coronavirus recession is that many more laid-off workers than usual consider their job losses to be only temporary and expect to return to their old employers. 

Many restaurants, shops and gyms had expected to be closed for only a brief period to combat the pandemic before reopening for good.

And indeed, as states began reopening, many people were called back to their old jobs. In May, even among people who were still out of work, roughly three-quarters regarded their job losses as temporary.

But with many consumers still reluctant to dine out, travel, shop or congregate in groups, more business closures are becoming permanent. In May, the number of people who said their jobs were gone for good rose nearly 300,000 from April. If that figure keeps growing as the pandemic surges back, the job market and the economy will take longer to recover.

Unequal job gains

Since the recession began in February, it has struck Black and Hispanic Americans harder than the overall US population. According to a Census Bureau survey, 53 percent of Black households and nearly three-fifths of Latino households have lost income since the viral outbreak struck.

But the job losses are not reversing at the same pace for everyone. While the unemployment rate for white Americans fell by 2 percentage points in May to 12.4 percent, it rose slightly for Black workers, to 16.8 percent. Unemployment for Latinos also fell but was still higher than for all other groups, at 17.6 percent.

Will state and local governments shed more jobs?

In May, even as most large US industries added jobs, state and local governments cut 550,000 workers, after having slashed 950,000 in April. The job losses have raised concerns that even as the economy slowly recovers, faltering sales tax and income tax revenues will force state and local governments to keep cutting jobs.

That would damage the recovery. In fact, most economists say that widespread state and local government layoffs weakened the recovery from the 2008-2009 Great Recession. 

Will more Americans stop looking for work?

Millions of Americans still have jobs but have been reduced to working part time rather than full time, leaving them with less money to spend and thereby slowing economic growth.

In May, more than 10 million part-time workers would have preferred full-time work – more than double the number in February, before the virus struck.

And many of those who have lost jobs have not looked for new ones. That’s either because they are discouraged by high unemployment, or they fear being infected by the virus. People who do not search for new jobs are not counted as unemployed.

But including involuntary part-time workers and those who are not looking for a job, the so-called “underemployment rate” was 21.2 percent in May, far above the official unemployment figure but down from a record 22.8 percent in April.

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Meta stock slides after second quarter outlook disappoints

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Meta (META) reported its first quarter earnings on Wednesday, and while it beat analysts’ expectations on the top and bottom lines, a disappointing Q2 forecast sent shares of the social media giant plummeting as much as 14% in early trading Thursday.

Meta says it will see second quarter revenue between $36.5 billion and $39 billion, falling short of midpoint estimates of $38.24 billion.

In addition to the downbeat Q2 forecast, Meta CFO Susan Li raised the company’s full-year total expenses estimate from a range between $94 billion and $99 billion to between $96 billion and $99 billion due to higher infrastructure and legal costs.

On the company’s earnings call, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said, “As we’re scaling capex and energy expenses for AI, we’ll continue focusing on operating the rest of our company efficiently. But realistically, even with shifting many of our existing resources to focus on AI, we’ll still grow our investment envelope meaningfully before we make much revenue from some of these new products.”

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Li said Meta also continues to expect its Reality Labs division to report increased year-over-year operating losses as the company builds out its various AI, AR, and VR efforts.

“While we are not providing guidance for years beyond 2024, we expect capital expenditures will continue to increase next year as we invest aggressively to support our ambitious AI research and product development efforts,” Li said in a release.

Meta reported earnings per share of $4.71 in the quarter on revenue of $36.46 billion. Wall Street was anticipating EPS of $4.30 on revenue of $36.12 billion, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Meta stock had been on a tear, climbing 131% over the last 12 months and more than 39% year to date. That’s far better than chief rival Google (GOOG, GOOGL) which is up 50% in the last 12 months and 13% year to date.

While part of Meta’s stock performance has to do with a recovery in the digital advertising market, the company’s stock price also rocketed higher last quarter after the social media company announced it was initiating a $0.50 per share dividend and increased its stock buyback authorization by $50 billion.

The company did not announce any updates to its shareholder return initiatives on Wednesday.

Meta has made a series of announcements regarding its AI efforts in recent months, including debuting its Meta AI chatbot and Llama 3 large language model on April 18.

The chatbot, however, has already garnered controversy after it joined a private Facebook group for mothers in Manhattan and claimed to have a child of its own, 404 Media reported.

On the metaverse front, CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced on Monday that Meta will make its Horizon operating system for headsets open source, allowing third-party companies like Lenovo and Microsoft to use it to build their own devices using the software. The idea is to bring more headsets to market while increasing Meta’s reach in the AR/VR space.

The company also stands to benefit significantly if Congress’s TikTok ban, which President Biden signed into law on Wednesday, survives legal challenges. If the app is locked out of the US, it stands to reason that users and creators would turn to rival platforms like Instagram to scratch their social media itches.

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'I would never move:' Lakefield, Ont. couple who won $70M Lotto Max jackpot says they are staying put – CP24

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A couple from Lakefield, Ont. says despite winning a $70 million Lotto Max jackpot, they aren’t even considering moving from their house in the small Central Ontario community near Peterborough that they call home.

“I need a new kitchen,” Enid Hannon said with a laugh. “The house is going to be renovated. We are going to stay where we are. Our neighbours are amazing. Our location is perfect. So no, I would never move.”

In a video released by the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation on Thursday, Hannon recalled the moment she discovered that they had won the jackpot from the Feb. 20 draw.

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“I had called my husband and said, ‘Do you want me to stop and pick up some lottery tickets? He says, ‘No. Just come on home, have supper, we need to discuss something. I went, ‘Oh, what did I do.’”

Doug Hannon said he waited until after dinner to share the news with his wife.

“I took her to the computer and I had the OLG website up and I said, ‘Do you want to check these numbers please?’”

Enid said she initially thought they had won $70,000.

“He goes, ‘Look at it again,’” she said. “I just started crying and he started crying and that was it.”

In addition to the renovation, the couple said they have a few family trips planned. 

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Honda’s $15B Ontario EV plant marks ‘historic day,’ Trudeau says – Global News

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Japanese automaker Honda is putting $15 billion into their Ontario operations with a new electric vehicle manufacturing plant in Alliston, Ont. with a joint $5 billion coming from the federal and Ontario governments.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Honda executives made the announcement at the Alliston plant Thursday morning.

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“This is a historic day with the largest auto investment in Canada’s history,” Trudeau said at the start of his remarks Thursday morning.

“With this investment we will be creating Canada’s first electric vehicle supply chain from start to finish.”

The $15 billion project also includes plans to retool the existing Alliston plant to make solely electric vehicles, build a battery plant nearby and two battery part facilities elsewhere in Ontario.


Click to play video: 'Honda considering an EV battery plan in Ontario according to report'

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Honda considering an EV battery plan in Ontario according to report


“The world is changing rapidly and we must work toward the allies in carbon neutrality to sustain the global environment. Honda is making steady progress toward our goal to make battery electric and electric vehicles represent 100 per cent of our vehicle sales by 2040,” Honda global CEO Toshihiro Mibe said.

Canada’s target is to have all newly sold consumer vehicles be emission free by 2035.

Mibe added that North America is their largest market and he sees Canada and the United States as central to the company’s future plans. Honda’s goal is to have the electric vehicle facility up and running in 2028, with an annual production target of up to 240,000 vehicles.


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The company says this will create 1,000 more jobs, in addition to the 4,200 that already exist at the assembly plant. Trudeau added there will be additional construction jobs associated with the project.

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Unlike previous electric vehicle deals inked by Ottawa and Ontario, this one does not include production subsidies.

Instead, the federal government is contributing $2.5 billion through tax credits under the already existing clean technology manufacturing program and proposed electric vehicle supply chain tax credit included in the 2024 budget.

Ontario is contributing $2.5 billion through direct help on capital costs and indirectly through covering the land servicing costs for the future facilities.

The Conservatives say that when public money goes into projects like this, there should be assurances that any jobs created will be filled by Canadians and not temporary foreign workers.

“We can’t trust that his latest announcement of $5 billion in Canadian taxpayer money to another large multinational corporation will be any different. Conservatives will not let Justin Trudeau sell out Canadian union workers and taxpayers yet again,” innovation critic Rick Perkins and trade critic Kyle Seeback said in a joint statement.

“Canadians deserve a government that will stand up for Canadian workers. Common sense Conservatives will ensure Canadians’ tax dollars are used wisely, and that any taxpayer-funded jobs are given Canadians, not foreign replacement workers.”

Stellantis subsidiary NextStar signaled plans to bring in up to 900 temporary workers, predominantly with Korea to assist in the construction of their heavily subsidized battery plant in Windsor, Ont, which received a joint $15 billion from the federal and Ontario governments.

During the Honda press conference, Trudeau said that of the 2,000 construction workers in Windsor only 72 are temporary foreign workers. He added their main job is to train Canadians on how to use specialized equipment.

The prime minister defended public money going into this deal with Honda, saying moves like this are essential to competition in a shifting global vehicle market.

“It’s a legitimate debate, but I think they’re wrong as the world is turning towards new ways of manufacturing and cleaner products, cleaner vehicles, changing the way we build things, changing what we build, countries around the world are competing for investments,” Trudeau said.

“Yes, there are politicians who sit back and say ‘No, no, no, no, no. We’ve got to balance the budget at all costs. Even if it means not investing in Canadian workers and investing in the future.’ Well, I think they’re wrong.”

Ford echoed Trudeau’s defence of moves like this in attracting investments from multi-national automakers like Honda.

“This is generational. This is decades and decades down the road. What price do you put on that? There is no price you can put on that because we’re investing into the people. The money is staying here in Ontario. It’s not going overseas. It’s not going down to the U.S. It’s staying right here in Ontario for decades and generations to come,” Ford said.

Past EV subsidies

The federal and Ontario governments have already put up a combined $28.2 billion in subsidies to attract battery plants from Volkswagen and Stellantis LG to St. Thomas and Windsor, Ont. respectively.  This tactic was used to attract the plants to Canada instead of the United States, which included incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act.

These subsidies are contingent on hitting hiring, construction and production targets, which are expected to be dolled out over the years, ending in 2032.

The federal government is covering two-thirds of these costs, with the Ontario government paying for the remainder.

A report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) last September said that it will take Ottawa 20 years to break even on what the government characterized as an investment.

At the time, Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said the PBO report did not capture broader economic impacts on the supply chain associated with increased battery production, which he said could increase the economic benefit of the subsidies.

With files from The Canadian Press.

&copy 2024 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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