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USD/CAD Extends Top as Crude Oil Prices Rise, Yen May Gain Next – DailyFX

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Canadian Dollar, Crude Oil, Euro, Yen, Australian Dollar – Asia Pacific Market Open

  • Canadian Dollar gains with crude oil, USD/CAD extended reversal
  • S&P 500 rose, White House pondering stock-investing tax incentive
  • U.S. Airbus tariff hike may fuel risk aversion, boosting the Yen next

Canadian Dollar Gains Alongside Crude Oil Prices, Euro Weakens

The Canadian Dollar outperformed against its major counterparts on Friday, extending the rally that prolonged throughout the week. Its rise occurred amid a pickup in crude oil prices, a key source of revenue for Canada. That can imply knock-on effects which could translate into monetary policy expectations.

Sentiment-linked crude prices were elevated as the markets continued shrugging off concerns about the impact of coronavirus on global growth. This follows China revising the method for counting cases, resulting in a strong surge in reports this past week. A swelling in the Fed’s balance sheet added liquidity into markets.

The S&P 500 closed 0.18% to the upside on Friday after reports crossed the wires that the White House is looking into tax incentives for households to purchase stocks. The fate of this, alongside middle-class tax cuts, arguably leans on the outcome of this year’s presidential election.

The Euro underperformed, closing at its lowest point against the US Dollar since April 2017. The single currency has been under pressure amid slowing European growth expectations. Preliminary figures showed Eurozone fourth-quarter GDP unexpectedly slowing to 0.9% y/y versus 1.0% anticipated.

Monday’s Asia Pacific Trading Session – Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar

After market close Friday, the United States Treasury Representative announced that the country will raise levies on European-imported aircraft to 15% from 10%. This follows a green light from the WTO last year that ruled in favor of the United States imposing about $7.5b in tariffs against the European Union.

This may translate into a cautiously pessimistic mood as the new week gets rolling. Wall Street is offline Monday for the Presidents’ Day holiday, lowering levels of liquidity. If Asia Pacific equities trade lower, the anti-risk Japanese Yen may gain at the expense of the sentiment-linked Australian Dollar.

Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis

As expected, USD/CAD turned lower following the emergence of bearish technical signals. Prices took out rising support from late January and have since seen downside follow-through. That places the focus on immediate support at 1.3208.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily-3%11%9%
Weekly5%13%12%

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Extends Top as Crude Oil Prices Rise, Yen May Gain Next

Chart Created Using TradingView

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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Canada's housing market moderately vulnerable, CMHC says in first quarterly report since COVID-19 began – CBC.ca

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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says there was some evidence of overvaluation in Canada’s housing market this spring amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Crown corporation says in cities such as Victoria, Moncton and Halifax, there was a widening gap between the selling price of houses and the price economists would expect, based on population growth, disposable income, mortgage rates and employment.

That data comes from the agency’s housing market assessment, which gives the housing market a grade based on whether homebuilding and rising prices could ultimately affect the stability of the economy.

CMHC says there was a “moderate degree of vulnerability” in the housing market as of the end of June, the same grade the market received in February.

The preliminary report shows the slowdown during the height of COVID-19 lockdown measures, but doesn’t include the record-setting home sales in July and August — nor does the data reflect the ending of government income supports and mortgage payment deferrals.

CMHC economist Bob Dugan says that — despite giving the housing market a steady grade this summer — CMHC still expects a severe decline in home sales and in new construction to come as the economy recovers from the pandemic.

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Sentinel teacher mulling WorkSafe claim over COVID-19 exposure – North Shore News

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A teacher at Sentinel Secondary in West Vancouver is considering filing a WorkSafe claim after contracting COVID-19 – most likely from a student – reportedly without being warned that she was potentially a close contact by health authorities.

Over half a dozen students from Sentinel and that teacher are now in isolation after a Grade 12 student in their class tested positive for COVID-19 last week.

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According to West Vancouver Teachers Association president Renee Willock, the teacher was not told to self-isolate by health authorities doing contact tracing on the student – only students sitting closest to that person were told to stay home.

But two days later, the teacher started to develop symptoms and has since tested positive for the virus, said Willock.

Willock said the situation has left teachers concerned that there hasn’t been enough transparency and notification around COVID-19 exposures in schools.

That only some students in the classroom were told to stay home isn’t how teachers thought the cohort system would work, said Willock.

“It’s difficult because the protocols have been changing almost daily,” she said.

If the teacher decides to file a claim, it would likely be the first claim connected to COVID-19 in schools as a workplace issue, said Willock.

A Grade 12 student at the school who spoke to the North Shore News Monday said some of his friends who are in that class and still attending school with a substitute teacher are wondering why they haven’t been told to self-isolate.

“None of the other students in that class have necessarily been told why it’s ok for them to stay in,” he said, noting the physical constraints of the classroom mean students don’t have large spaces between them.

“They’ve heard nothing.”

Teachers and parents were first made aware of the COVID-19 exposure when Principal Michael Finch sent an email notice on the weekend, stating, “We have been made aware that a member of our school community has tested positive for COVID-19.”

Since then, however, there have been few details provided by either the West Vancouver School District or Vancouver Coastal Health.

That’s left teachers stressed and confused, said Willock.

Willock said it’s also concerning that the school has not been listed on Vancouver Coastal Health’s web page of school exposures.

“I know this is inaccurate,” said Willock.

Nine students at Collingwood School, a private school in West Vancouver, are also self-isolating this week after being exposed to a student with the virus at the school last week.

“This is a standard measure that is taken to ensure that there is no ongoing transmission in the school and does not mean that they are sick,” wrote Head of School Lisa Evans in a letter to parents.

Collingwood was also not on a school exposure list from Vancouver Coastal Health – which had not listed any schools in the region on Monday – including Mulgrave private school in West Vancouver where a group of Grade 9 students and their teachers spent 14 days in

Isolation earlier this month after a student in the group tested positive for COVID-19.

In contrast, the Fraser Health Authority listed 14 schools in the Surrey School District with COVID-19 exposures on Monday.

According to information posted on the website, an “exposure” is defined as when a single person with a lab-confirmed case of COVID-19 attended school during their infectious period.

Henry said Monday that all school exposures were supposed to be posted.

Henry also told reporters that even if they are in the same classroom as someone who has tested positive for the virus, most students won’t be considered close contacts. “If you’re sitting at a desk and you’re not close to them, you’ve not had close contact with them,” she said.

“And unless we start to see transmission within the classroom, it would be very unlikely that an entire classroom would have to self isolate.”

Henry said when people have been potentially exposed to the virus at school “I absolutely am sure that my colleagues and VCH are following up with the individuals who were exposed.”

In some cases, a teacher or student may have become infected with the virus through family or other social contacts but haven’t been in the school during their infectious period, said Henry.

Vancouver Coastal Health did not respond to several requests for comment on the school exposures at Sentinel and Collingwood.

She said so far most of the school exposures have been adults in the school setting.

This week health authorities also changed the list of symptoms that would require children to stay home from school, taking several of those – like a runny nose – off the list. That’s because a runny nose by itself is much less likely to be a symptom of COVID-19, especially among children, said Henry. A fever or cough – by themselves or in combination with other symptoms are much more likely to be a symptom of the virus.

 

 

 

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CMHC saw 'moderate' risk of overvalued markets, stands by price forecast – Yahoo Canada Finance

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The Canadian Mortgage Housing Corporation (CMHC) saw ‘moderate’ evidence of an overvalued housing market in the Spring of 2020.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="The organization’s Housing Market Assessment report released Monday says real estate imbalances (whether the market skewed towards a buyer or seller’s market) in Canada had eased by the end of 2019.” data-reactid=”13″>The organization’s Housing Market Assessment report released Monday says real estate imbalances (whether the market skewed towards a buyer or seller’s market) in Canada had eased by the end of 2019.

In the second quarter, the Vancouver market sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) sunk from the mid-60 per cent range to mid-40 per cent, swinging it closer to a buyer’s market. For Toronto, the ratio fell to 55 per cent in the second quarter, but only because COVID-19 lockdowns temporarily hit the brakes on transactions. At the beginning of the third quarter, the market began to rebound with pent-up demand bringing the ratio back closer to 65 per cent.

However, the pandemic led to rising unemployment and reduced hours worked, which lowered income in most regions. Prices rose more than expected in areas like eastern Canada, Ottawa, Montréal, Moncton, and Halifax, considering factors like lower population growth, rising unemployment, lower income, and lower mortgage rates.

Sales fell slightly more than new listings, which tumbled at a record pace. This tipped housing closer to a balanced market, with a drop in the sales-to-new-listing ratio to 61.9 per cent from 65.8 per cent in 2019. The shock of the pandemic shutting down open houses and stalling transactions caused the average house price to fall. However, the data do not reflect the federal government supports or the record-breaking house prices the country has seen in recent months.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="August may have set another record for house prices, though the Crown corporation stands by its nine to 18 per cent house price decline forecast in May. “We stand by our forecast in the sense that I think there remain a lot of conditions in the housing market and the economy, for that matter,” said CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan over the report’s briefing call, adding that there are risks with provinces lifting their lockdowns. “There are risks related to the different mortgages that are in place right now and for the risks to come upon them going forward. So I don’t think we’re out of the woods, yet.”” data-reactid=”17″>August may have set another record for house prices, though the Crown corporation stands by its nine to 18 per cent house price decline forecast in May. “We stand by our forecast in the sense that I think there remain a lot of conditions in the housing market and the economy, for that matter,” said CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan over the report’s briefing call, adding that there are risks with provinces lifting their lockdowns. “There are risks related to the different mortgages that are in place right now and for the risks to come upon them going forward. So I don’t think we’re out of the woods, yet.”

The simultaneous occurrence of [social distancing measures and employment losses] caused the number of transactions and the number of new listings entering the market to fall at a record pace. With sales falling by slightly more than new listings, the sales-to-new-listings ratio dropped to 61.9 per cent from a recent high of 65.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019 (Figure 1). SOURCE: CMHC

Consistent with the prior tightening of the resale market, the inflation-adjusted MLS national average price experienced four consecutive quarters of growth through to the first quarter of 2020. By the second quarter of 2020, following the sudden shock to housing market fundamentals and two quarterly declines of the sales-to-new-listings ratio, the real average price had fallen. Consequently, evidence of price acceleration also remains low. SOURCE: CMHC Consistent with the prior tightening of the resale market, the inflation-adjusted MLS national average price experienced four consecutive quarters of growth through to the first quarter of 2020. By the second quarter of 2020, following the sudden shock to housing market fundamentals and two quarterly declines of the sales-to-new-listings ratio, the real average price had fallen. Consequently, evidence of price acceleration also remains low. SOURCE: CMHC

Overheating in Canada’s Major Markets

The company’s estimates for overvaluation in Toronto and Vancouver picked up as both cities saw a boost in house prices in the second quarter despite the economic fallout from the pandemic.

Heading into the second quarter, the CMHC's concerns around overheating and price acceleration eased. However, the overall assessment purports that the region may have moderate degrees of vulnerability. SOURCE: CMHCHeading into the second quarter, the CMHC's concerns around overheating and price acceleration eased. However, the overall assessment purports that the region may have moderate degrees of vulnerability. SOURCE: CMHC

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