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USD May Rise After Trump Called for Post-Election Delay in Stimulus Talks – DailyFX

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2020 Election, USD, Trump, US Fiscal Stimulus Package – Talking Points

  • Trump calls of fiscal stimulus talks until after election, markets pay the price
  • Biden-Trump spread widest ever recorded ahead of vice presidential debate
  • AUD/USD fundamentals and technicals aligning – where is the pair headed?
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28 DAYS UNTIL THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

It is officially four weeks until the US presidential election, and political volatility around the situation continues to build. President Donald Trump was recently released from the Walter Reed medical center, where he was being temporarily treated for Covid-19. Despite his quick return to the White House, recent polling data is indicating a landslide victory for Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

2020 US Election Polls

Source: RealClearPolitics

Following the first presidential debate on September 29, the spread between Mr. Biden and Trump widened to 25.5, the biggest divergence ever recorded between the two candidates. With the upcoming vice-presidential debate on October 7, this dynamic will likely be amplified if Biden’s running mate Kamala Harris outperforms VP Mike Pence.

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Fiscal Stimulus Talks Break Down, Drag Markets with Them

On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced that he is instructing key officials in his administration to cease all fiscal stimulus-related negotiations with Democrats until after the election on November 3. While talks up until this point were not encouraging, market price action suggested that investors were betting that the atmosphere of urgency for additional aid would force Republicans and Democrats to work together.

This kind of sentiment yielded results with Europe when the North-South fissure was temporarily put aside for greater unity, and perhaps investors thought the same political dynamic would occur in the US. House Democrats passed a $2.2 trillion stimulus package last week, but the bill has encountered friction from Republicans who fear that such a large stimulus would balloon the national debt even more.

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Why the market reaction to the news of the breakdown in talks between congressional lawmakers has elicited such a strong reaction reflects how urgent stimulus is needed. The growth-stimulating provisions of the last package are fizzling out or have already expired, leaving the economy running on fumes as cases spike and the need to reimpose lockdowns grow. In this environment of uncertainty, the haven-linked USD may rise.

AUD/USD Price Analysis

Perhaps not entirely by coincidence, the fundamental backdrop perfectly fits into the technical narrative. AUD/USD has been hovering at the lower tier of a key inflection range between 0.7206 and 0.7181 and is now showing signs of capitulation. The pair experienced its biggest one-day drop since the selling bout in September and may now retest support at 0.7018.

AUD/USD – Daily Chart

AUD/USD chart created using TradingView

— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or@ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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