Vaccine news is great. It won't help the economy much this winter - CNN | Canada News Media
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Vaccine news is great. It won't help the economy much this winter – CNN

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A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here.
This just in: Moderna (MRNA) has announced that per early results, its Covid-19 vaccine is 94.5% effective.
Stocks — which jumped dramatically when Pfizer said its vaccine was more than 90% effective last Monday — are rallying again. Futures of the S&P 500, which hit an all-time high on Friday, are up sharply. The Dow is also in record territory.
Breaking it down: Wall Street sees positive vaccine developments as a major confidence booster, firming up expectations for a big economic rebound next year. If companies have faith that vaccine distribution can begin in late 2020 or early 2021, they can start to make more concrete plans for the future.
Unfortunately, vaccines won’t prevent an extremely tough winter. Many European countries are still under modified lockdowns, and the United States surpassed 11 million coronavirus cases on Sunday. At least 45 states have reported more new infections this past week than the previous week, according to Johns Hopkins University.
“The good news on vaccines is tempered by the fact that they won’t come soon enough to prevent a difficult winter for many economies,” Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients on Monday.
The contraction in activity between October and December expected in Europe won’t be as bad as what countries experienced this spring.
“Clearly the lockdowns this time around are much less stringent than they were earlier in the year,” Ben May of Oxford Economics told me, noting that schools mostly remain open.
He also pointed to a lower fear factor, which is likely to boost the economy through decreased voluntary social distancing, and a healthier environment for exports.
Oxford Economics now predicts that global growth will come in around 0.7% for the fourth quarter, compared to roughly 7% between July and September.
“The pace of growth in [the fourth quarter] has fallen back very sharply,” May said.
The global situation is made better by the recovery in China, which said Monday that industrial production in the world’s second-largest economy rose nearly 7% last month. Retail sales rose by slightly more than 4% — the fastest pace this year.
Big picture: News on the vaccine front does change the outlook for 2021, however. “It’s possible to believe that life will start to become a bit more normal next year,” Shearing said.
May said that indications there will be viable vaccines firms up expectations for a sizable rebound in activity by the middle of next year. Per Shearing, if all goes well with immunization, top economies could “return to pre-virus levels of output around six months earlier” than expected.

PNC to buy US business of Spain’s BBVA for $11.6 billion

PNC (PNC) is spending billions to cement its place among America’s largest banks.
The Pittsburgh-based lender is buying the American unit of Spanish financial group BBVA for $11.6 billion, the companies said Monday. The tie-up will create the fifth-largest US retail bank by assets, PNC said.
The all-cash deal will be the second-biggest banking sector merger since the global financial crisis, coming nearly two years after BB&T bought SunTrust for $28 billion to create Truist. Shares in BBVA surged as much as 16% in London.
PNC said in a statement that the transaction “significantly accelerates” its national expansion strategy. BBVA’s US subsidiary has over $100 billion in assets, and operates more than 630 branches in Texas, Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Colorado and New Mexico.
“When combined with PNC’s existing footprint, the company will have a coast-to-coast franchise with a presence in 29 of the 30 largest markets in the US,” PNC said.
Scoreboard: The combined entity will have more than $560 billion in assets, placing it behind only JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup when ranking US retail banks by size.
Investor insight: The deal comes amid a trying year for US banks, which have been weighed down by rock-bottom interest rates. They’ve also had to set aside billions of dollars to cover bad debts stemming from the coronavirus recession.
But Wall Street analysts, buoyed by hopes for Covid-19 vaccines, are increasingly confident that US bank stocks can turn it around in the coming months. The KBW Bank Index, which tracks US lenders, jumped 11.5% last week for its best performance since June.

Unilever’s plan to conquer home ice cream delivery

In the world of ice cream, one company reigns supreme. Unilever, whose brands include Klondike, Ben & Jerry’s and Magnum, sells ice cream in 63 countries around the world. The Anglo-Dutch firm commands almost a fifth of global ice cream sales, a bigger share than its next four competitors combined, according to market research firm Euromonitor.
Now, as the coronavirus pandemic rages on, the company is plotting to conquer one final frontier: ice cream delivered to your home on demand, my CNN Business colleague Hanna Ziady reports.
Ice Cream Now, the company’s home delivery business, has boomed during the pandemic. What began as a pilot program in 2016 at Deliveroo’s London headquarters with a single freezer is now available in more than 100 cities.
“As an ice cream gang we’re a bit messianic,” said Matt Close, the company’s executive vice president for global ice cream. “We believe that people want it, we’ve just got to find a way to get it to them.”
Through partnerships with the likes of Uber Eats and Domino’s Pizza, customers can get ice cream delivered within 30 minutes. The company has even teamed up with Terra Drone Europe to explore delivery by air.
The plan is working: The growth of ice cream at home is on track to more than offset the collapse in its out-of-home ice cream revenue this year, which includes sales to restaurants and catering companies. Looks like Ben & Jerry’s picked a good year to launch a flavor called Netflix & Chilll’d?
Casper Sleep (CSPR), JD.com (JD) and Tyson Foods (TSN) report results before US markets open. Baidu (BIDU) and SmileDirectClub (SDC) follow after the close.
Also today: The Empire State manufacturing index for November posts at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Coming tomorrow: Home Depot (HD), Kohl’s (KSS) and Walmart (WMT) report earnings as more US shoppers take advantage of curbside pickup and online shopping.

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Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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