For all the bluster among federal political leaders about not wanting an election any time soon, the political truth is as cold as a winter’s wind: the potential for one is a reality in 2021.
For now, political parties say getting through the long dark winter without the health-care system collapsing due to COVID-19 is a priority, as is ensuring vaccines quickly and effectively reach all parts of the country.
But running parallel to that is the ongoing debate over how to cushion the economic blow caused by the pandemic.
Who has the best ideas on that score and ought to be entrusted with running the country as Canada builds itself back up is expected to be the dominant ballot box question come the next election.
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Here’s a look at some of the factors at play that could shape how or when that election is called.
The Liberals
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau laid out the broad strokes of his vision for Canada in the fall throne speech and subsequent economic update. He’ll return to it again in the 2021 budget.
But with a minority government, his desire to “build back better” rests on continuing to get support from other parties for any legislation he seeks to advance.
3:33 Coronavirus: ‘I do not want an election,’ Trudeau says
Coronavirus: ‘I do not want an election,’ Trudeau says – Sep 16, 2020
That the Liberals have survived thus far is largely thanks to the New Democrats who have propped up the government in several confidence votes.
Should Trudeau want to go to the polls to seek a majority mandate — a decision he may make based on public polling suggesting one is possible — he may have to slip a poison pill for the NDP into a confidence motion to ensure they vote him down.
Meanwhile, on their right flank the Liberals will seek any opportunity to jump on comments from Conservative MPs or their leader, Erin O’Toole, that could allow the party to be painted as extremely right wing.
A recent fundraising email to that effect using some of O’Toole’s own comments helped the Liberals hit one of their strongest weeks of online fundraising since the 2019 campaign.
The Conservatives
The goal for the Conservatives in the next election is to form government.
Their path to victory revolves around making the case the Liberals are unfit to manage the post-pandemic recovery, and 2021 will see the Tories roll out their ideas and arguments for why their approach would be better.
Newly minted leader Erin O’Toole — he won the job in August — must become better known to Canadians; while Trudeau spent the lead-up to Christmas doing year-end interviews with major national media outlets, O’Toole’s approach was to avoid most and focus on regional players.
2:28 Conservative Leader O’Toole says he has no confidence in government — but doesn’t want election
Conservative Leader O’Toole says he has no confidence in government — but doesn’t want election – Oct 20, 2020
Expanding the party’s reach beyond its loyal and committed base is the primary challenge for O’Toole.
Doing so requires a delicate dance between ensuring card-carrying members of the party see their demands met and not alienating potential voters.
Those two goals may come to a head at the party’s upcoming virtual convention.
What motions O’Toole supports or ignores there will signal which direction he wants to take the party, especially with groups like the anti-abortion Campaign Life Coalition mobilizing to advance its causes on the convention floor.
The New Democrats
The Liberals have hoovered up NDP ideas like Santa eating cookies on Christmas Eve: pharmacare, paid sick days and the cancellation of interest on student loans are now part of the policy package for the government.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has said the government must act on those promises to ensure his party’s ongoing support, but they also have other demands, like increased taxes on the “ultrarich.”
The NDP secured concessions from the Liberals in pandemic-response legislation, but a decision to prop them up in a vote over WE Charity raised some eyebrows.
0:53 NDP leader describes Trudeau’s election threat as outrageous and absurd
NDP leader describes Trudeau’s election threat as outrageous and absurd – Oct 20, 2020
Taking the ethical high ground is a central talking point for the party and painting the Liberals as corrupt friends of the rich is core to the their political strategy.
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Singh says he is guided by doing what’s best for Canadians, but how much runaway he has within his own party to keep propping up the government is unclear.
Also of note: in 2021, the party retires its $10 million debt from the 2019 election, allowing the NDP to focus on refilling its coffers for the next run.
The Bloc Quebecois
While their opponents are in the game to win the country, for the Bloc Quebecois, a minority government where they hold a significant chunk of seats is actually a better outcome as it allows them to wield more power than they would in a majority.
The pandemic has put federal-provincial relations under exceptional strain and this is fertile ground for the Bloc Quebecois to till as they position themselves as the only party truly committed to Quebec’s interests in Parliament.
At a recent year-end press conference, Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet accused the Liberals of using the pandemic to seize and centralize power without a care for the provinces.
0:27 Blanchet suggests he has lost confidence in the Trudeau government
Blanchet suggests he has lost confidence in the Trudeau government – Aug 12, 2020
He also checked off a list of causes dear to Quebec that his party fought for in 2020, including compensation for supply-managed industries and action to force airlines to refund customers who couldn’t travel during the pandemic.
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Expect the Bloc to also press back hard against the Liberals’ plan to institute some kind of national strategy to guide long-term care homes, which Quebec has said is beyond the scope of federal power.
The BQ’s main political rival come 2021 is the Conservative party, which continues to insist it is the best placed to achieve actual change for Quebec. Much like the Liberals, expect the Bloc to focus on knocking down Erin O’Toole where they can.
The Green party
The Greens have appeared poised for an electoral breakthrough for years as Canadians demand more aggressive action on climate change, but it has been a slog to convert national support in the polls to winning seats.
They currently hold three, and but despite best efforts so far, new Green Leader Annamie Paul doesn’t have one.
5:27 Annamie Paul elected as new federal Green Party leader
Annamie Paul elected as new federal Green Party leader – Oct 4, 2020
Increasing her profile is crucial in the coming months, but challenging without a seat in Parliament.
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She’s been working the media circuit and holding regular news conferences, but an election would give her a much-needed boost, especially if she is afforded a seat at nationally televised debates.
The Liberals’ goal to focus on a “green recovery” post-pandemic could see the Greens own approach get renewed attention.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.
Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.
Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”
The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.
Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.
“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”
Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.
Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.
Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.
B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.
The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.
“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”
Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.
Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.
The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.
Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.
Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.
NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.
But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.
He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.
Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.
Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
