Vancouver Island's economy disrupted but adapting, State of the Island report finds – Campbell River Mirror - Campbell River Mirror | Canada News Media
During COVID times, especially, the ‘State of the Island’ differs greatly sector by sector.
The Vancouver Island Economic Summit concluded Thursday, Oct. 28, with the annual presentation of the State of the Island report from Susan Mowbray, senior economist with MNP.
This year’s report highlighted “the sectoral nature of the impacts of COVID-19.” Whereas pandemic health restrictions harmed industries such as tourism, service, arts and entertainment, recreation and transportation industries, other sectors such as health and certain financial and professional services that transitioned to remote work environments reported growth.
Mowbray recalled that last year’s State of the Island report came in more uncertain times, when different pandemic restrictions were in place and vaccines weren’t yet available.
“We definitely have more clarity on where things are going, but there has not been a single narrative or data point that describes the economic journey we’ve been on or will be on going forward,” she said. “Really, the theme this year is about this ongoing disruption we’re experiencing.”
Increasing adoption of digitization is another theme common across sectors, Mowbray said, and it’s created both challenges and opportunities. In an era of worker shortages, she said, “hybrid” business models that incorporate some remote work can be helpful.
“Employers need to adapt to our new labour market conditions. They need to be creative,” she said. “For employers who can have part of their staff working remotely, that’s a way for them to actually attract, potentially, and retain staff.”
She added that the construction industry, for example, has shown technological advancements in pre-fabrication that creates efficiencies and reduces waste.
“We’re going to see increasing adoption of technology in areas where we never would have expected it before, and that’s actually good for our productivity,” Mowbray said.
Conversely, some workers have struggled to keep up with technology and that is one of the reasons for the labour shortage, she said, as there are gaps in digital skills.
“It’s areas that might come as a surprise. Something as simple as knowing how to process an online order if you’re a retailer … or maybe it’s how to use a tablet if you’re an electrician and you’re doing your invoices,” she said.
On the Island, the administrative, professional, scientific and technical services added jobs between 2019 and 2021, whereas employment numbers dropped in construction, hospitality and retail.
Mowbray was surprised by the construction job losses, but said they can be attributed to the completion of some large-scale projects on the Island, and also to supply chain problems.
As for the forestry sector, Mowbray said production is expected to remain stable at 2019-2020 levels following a period of persistent decline before that.
The Island’s unemployment rate in the first half of 2021 was 6.5 per cent, below B.C.’s rate of 7.3 per cent, and rebounding from an 8.7-per cent unemployment rate during 2020. Because of the Island’s aging population, though – 25 per cent of residents are 65-plus – the Island has the lowest employment and labour force participation rates in the province.
The Island’s population grew more modestly last year than during the previous five years, but the Island’s 1.2-per cent population growth was still slightly above B.C. rate of 1.1 per cent. Alberni-Clayoquot, Comox Valley and Capital regional districts were the Island’s fastest-growing regions at 1.3 per cent last year, with Nanaimo and Strathcona close behind at 1.2 per cent.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
