Voters head to the polls today in Halifax and other Nova Scotia municipalities

British Columbia voters are heading to the polls, and political podcast co-host Mike McDonald says he is watching five ridings as bellwethers.

Here are the five ridings he’s watching as indicators of whether the NDP or the B.C. Conservatives will form government, and why:

Nanaimo-Lantzville

McDonald says one of the key factors in determining bellwethers is a history of centre-right support in places that swung to the NDP in 2020.

Nanaimo-Lantzville is a new riding, carved mostly out of Nanaimo and Parksville-Qualicum, both of which went to the NDP in 2020.

McDonald says Parksville-Qualicum in particular had been held by the BC Liberals since 1996 until Adam Walker’s victory for the NDP in 2020. But Walker has since been removed from the NDP caucus and is running for re-election as an Independent.

Meanwhile, the B.C. Conservatives are running Gwen O’Mahony, another former NDP MLA, who represented Chilliwack-Hope from 2012 to 2013.

North Vancouver-Seymour

This Metro Vancouver riding had been BC Liberal territory from 1991 to 2020, when Susie Chant became the first New Democrat to win there since 1972.

McDonald says while the riding had been held for decades by the BC Liberals, the centre-right margin of victory had been diminishing from 32 percentage points in 2009 before it ultimately flipped to the NDP.

He says the heavily urban riding is “not a great fit” for the B.C. Conservatives’ and their rural lean but it may still swing right if the momentum for change carries into Metro Vancouver.

Surrey-Cloverdale

This is a rare riding where two sitting MLAs will battle for a place in the next legislature.

NDP incumbent Mike Starchuk won the riding in 2020 with 52 per cent of the vote, but it had previously been staunch BC Liberal turf, all the way back to 1991 when the riding was created.

Starchuk faces one of the highest-profile candidates on the B.C. Conservative slate: Elenore Sturko, the MLA for Surrey South who won that riding as a star candidate for BC United. But she defected to the Conservatives this year to run in Surrey-Cloverdale.

McDonald says this may be the front line between B.C. Conservative support in the Fraser Valley and the NDP’s base in urban areas, the so-called “orange wall.”

Langley-Willowbrook

McDonald calls this another “orange wall” riding.

He says the newly created riding has experienced demographic changes spurred by urban families spreading out in search of affordability, making it “kind of an NDP place.”

Incumbent New Democrat Andrew Mercier won in 2020 with 47 per cent of the vote when the riding was known as Langley. The new riding comprises mostly of that seat that had gone to BC Liberal or Social Credit candidates in every previous election back to 1966.

Maple Ridge East

This riding has sided with the party that formed government in every provincial election since 2001.

It is held by the NDP’s Bob D’Eith while the Conservatives are running political newcomer Lawrence Mok.

McDonald notes that every riding he has chosen as a bellwether includes a Green party candidate. He says the Greens have seen some momentum as the NDP shifts to the centre in response to the Conservatives on policies such as the carbon tax and involuntary care.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

WASHINGTON – Pierre Trudeau famously described living next to the United States as “sleeping with an elephant,” a sentiment his son is intimately aware of amid this year’s tumultuous and polarized American election.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has likely reflected on his father’s words about Canada’s proximity to the U.S.: “one is affected by every twitch and grunt.”

The U.S. is Canada’s closest neighbour and largest trading partner and who wins the White House in November will be in charge during the review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement in 2026.

While Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump approach trade differently, both are selling protectionist policies that could cause uncertainty for Canada.

“We’ve done this before,” Trudeau said recently when asked about both presidential candidates saying they’d push the review of the crucial trade pact.

“We can do it again if we need to.”

Harris has been campaigning on her vote against the trilateral agreement and has made comments in support of the Biden administration’s Buy American procurement rules.

Meanwhile, Trump’s professed love of tariffs is the centrepiece of his agenda. He previously proposed a 10 per cent across-the-board tariff — pushing it upwards of 50 per cent in recent interviews.

“To me the most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘tariff’,” Trump said Tuesday.

The rhetoric rings alarm bells north of the border. More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S and 60 per cent of Canada’s gross-domestic product is derived from trade.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce earlier this month released a report suggesting Trump’s 10 per cent tariffs would reduce the size of the economy between 0.9 and one per cent, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs. Things would be even worse if other countries retaliated with tariff walls of their own.

Trump’s first administration demonstrated how vulnerable Canada is to America’s whims when the former president scrapped the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Negotiation of CUSMA, commonly dubbed “the new NAFTA,” was a key test for Ottawa following Trump’s victory.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland called the updated trilateral pact a “victory for all Canadians,” and experts say it was more moderate than Trump originally threatened.

But Trump’s trade representative Robert Lighthizer critically recounted the renegotiation, writing in his book that at one point “NAFTA was hanging on by a thread.”

“With Trump in charge he’s definitely a very volatile individual,” said Laura Dawson, an expert on Canada-U. S. relations and the executive director of the Future Borders Coalition.

“And his affect global stability and security and international relations with the United States are going to be significant — and not in a good way.”

Canada has taken lessons from his first presidency. Trump followed a fairly orthodox Republican trade agenda punctuated by explosive bursts of personal attention, Dawson said. He handed most responsibility for the trade relationship to a more predictable Lighthizer.

Alec Beck, chairman of the fifth congressional district for the Republican party of Minnesota, said he believes talks about Trump as an isolationist are overstated. Beck, whose state shares an 885-kilometre border with Canada, said both countries must work together and tariffs are a bad idea.

“They might feel good but it’s a sugar high,” the Republican said earlier this month.

If Harris wins, there will be more normal relations based on established patterns and rules, said Aaron Ettinger, a politics professor at Carleton University in Ottawa.

It’s expected the vice-president will follow the path laid by President Joe Biden, which brought some stability but not much change. He largely kept Trump’s tariffs in place, despite promises to reverse them.

Biden also signed an executive order to revoke the permit for the Keystone XL, which would have transferred oil from Alberta to Nebraska.

Dawson said she expects a Harris administration would continue nationalist and protectionist actions.

Harris has campaigned on returning manufacturing jobs to the U.S. It is a great slogan and bumper sticker, Dawson said, “but it’s terrible if you are Canada.”

The impact of these policies on Canada-U. S. relations might not be clear to voters, who get behind the America first slogans.

Jeremy Washington says he believes electing the Republican presidential candidate would help both countries. The 27-year-old, who was at a recent Trump rally in Butler, Pa., said change is needed “because the things that have ruined … America have also affected Canada, like unfettered immigration, high housing prices, the currency seeming like its worthless.”

Experts have warned the trade and tariff threats will also bring costs for Americans.

Dawson cautioned Trudeau’s team during a cabinet retreat in August that no matter who wins the U.S. presidency, Canada will have to work harder to maintain existing benefits of integrated trade and travel.

Canada will rely more on one-off lobbying and advocacy to get special treatment as both Republicans and Democrats move away from the security of historical trade deals.

Experts and business groups have been sounding the alarm about Canada’s changing role to its closest ally. Many say the relationship between the two countries shifted from being strategic to transactional as Canada became less critical compared with other places in the world.

A report from the independent Expert Group on Canada-U. S. Relations, which includes former diplomats, policy advisers and business leaders, warned Ottawa was “sleepwalking” ahead of the 2026 trade pact review. That July report described Trump’s current relationship with the Liberal government as “chilly at best.”

Dawson said Canadian concerns won’t be appeased in the next few weeks ahead of the election. It won’t be clear what either camp really has in store for the Canadian relationship until long after November.

“I am much more concerned in how we are in this trajectory, in these falling dominoes, that are going to be moving through that new NAFTA review.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 19, 2024.

Blake Tait says he’s still healing from being outed by his school’s guidance counsellor when he was 14.

Feeling safe at his school in Saskatoon, he started telling people he was transgender. But he felt uneasy when his guidance counsellor set up a meeting for Tait to tell his family.

His parents were supportive. His mom’s ex-husband, whom they lived with at the time, was not, leading to four years of emotional abuse that manifested in alcoholism, drug misuse and a suicide attempt.

“He kicked me out right after I was discharged from the psych ward,” said Tait, 24.

On Thursday, Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe said banning “biological boys” from sharing change rooms with “biological girls” would be his party’s first order of business if it’s re-elected on Oct. 28.

Tait is one of many LGBTQ+ advocates who say the campaign promise is hateful and puts transgender youth at risk.

“If this legislation had existed when I was a kid, I would not have survived high school and that’s the fact of the matter,” he said. “School was my one safe space, the only place where I felt I could be authentic.”

Moe has said the promise for a change room policy came in response to a complaint that two biological males had changed for gym class with girls at a school in southeast Saskatchewan.

NDP Leader Carla Beck accused Moe of stoking fear and division with voters and making vulnerable kids more at risk.

Moe’s promise also comes one year after the Saskatchewan Party government passed a law requiring parental consent for children under 16 to use different names or pronouns at school.

Beck told reporters this week her party would repeal the law if it wins the provincial election, a move Moe said would take away parents’ rights to be involved in their children’s lives and allow teachers to “keep secrets from parents.”

Most kids don’t want to hide from their parents, Tait said, but those who do typically have a reason.

“It is entirely out of safety and safety concerns,” he said. “It’s a rare story, but it’s a story that still happens.

“It’s a harmful narrative to say that kids want to hide from their parents and it’s a harmful narrative to say that schools are keeping things from parents purposefully.”

Heather Kuttai, the mother of a gender-diverse child and a former commissioner with the Saskatchewan Human Rights Commission, said Moe is targeting transgender children to bring in voters because they are an “easy target.”

“He did it before, and he’s just doing it again,” she said. “It’s a direct attack on the rights of trans adults and children.

“When they hear this kind of rhetoric, even just the talking about it, it’s harmful. It sounds hateful and mean, like you’re not valued, like you don’t matter.”

Prince Albert Pride posted on social media that organizers feel “saddened, fearful and frustrated” by the proposed change room directive and that the group was not consulted.

It said transgender youth are being treated as “political pawns.”

“Forcing trans girls to change with teenage boys will not keep anyone safe,” it said.

“It will put trans and two-spirit youth in harm’s way, and at greater risk of assault, sexual assault and bullying.”

Tait said a change room policy is a distraction from real election issues like health care, and it could have a long-lasting impact on gender-diverse youth and their ability to exist “in their most authentic form,” Tait said.

“(We) need queer and trans folks,” said Tait.

“We bring light, we bring joy. And to me, it feels like we have a government that is trying to erase us.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 19, 2024.