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Wall Street Cuts China Growth Forecasts as Economy Disappoints

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(Bloomberg) — China’s disappointing economic growth figures prompted several economists to downgrade their forecasts for the year, citing major weaknesses in the recovery and Beijing’s relatively muted stimulus response.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. were among banks to cut their projections for economic growth this year to 5%, putting Beijing’s official gross domestic product target of around 5% at risk.

Official figures released Monday showed the economy lost momentum in the second quarter, with consumer spending growth weakening notably in June and property investment contracting.

Here’s a look at economists’ key takeaways following the data release:

GDP growth target under threat

Citigroup Inc. economists lowered their forecast for GDP growth this year to 5% from 5.5%, saying Beijing’s official target — set in March at around 5% — was now at risk.

The new projection takes into account “more realistic” policy support over the coming months, the economists including Yu Xiangrong wrote. They said while a meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo later this month will provide clues about policy thinking, there are risks that policy could “fall behind the curve or short of expectations.”

JPMorgan trimmed its forecast to 5% from 5.5%, while Morgan Stanley reduced its estimate to 5% from 5.7%. United Overseas Bank Ltd., Capital Economics Ltd. and Societe Generale SA also lowered their predictions.

No major policy stimulus package on the cards

Investors should trim their expectations for a “fast, cure-all package” of stimulus measures, said Nomura Holdings Inc. Chief China Economist Lu Ting.

“We don’t think today’s data will push Beijing to step up stimulus measures,” he said, though Nomura held its GDP forecast for 2023 at 5.1% expansion.

While Lu expects Beijing to introduce some supportive measures, including two policy rate cuts of 10 basis points and additional fiscal transfers to local governments, he said “these measures may not turn things around.”

Lu cited challenges including weak confidence, the collapse of land sales as a revenue source creating a “huge fiscal cliff,” along with “clogged transmission channels, a shrinking tool box” and “slow decision-making on economic matters.”

Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC Holdings Plc., said that overly stimulating demand right now “may prove counter-productive by stoking the build-up in debt and accentuating some of the economy’s imbalances, such as its reliance on a vast housing construction sector.”

Budget constraints of local governments may be another factor limiting stimulus, according to Zerlina Zeng, senior credit analyst at CreditSights.

Property market recovery is key to growth prospects

Beijing will need to revive the housing market in order to see better growth in the economy, said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas SA.

“The only growth driver left is investment, whose biggest problem is property,” Rong said. “The most urgent support needed for property is to stabilize the supply side — too many developers have been in trouble and there can’t be more large-scale defaults, otherwise housing development will come to a halt.”

Consumer confidence is waning

Monday’s data showed a marked slowdown in retail sales growth — June’s figure grew 3.1% from the prior year. That was worrying, according to Louis Kuijs, chief economist for Asia Pacific at S&P Global Ratings.

“What we all expected was a consumption and service-led recovery. If that is sputtering, then there’s no engine left for the recovery,” Kuijs said, nodding to concerns about trouble in exports — which had been a driver of growth for the last few years — as well as real estate.

“If exports and real estate are both weak, that means we cannot expect too much on the industrial side,” Kuijs said.

Youth unemployment to climb further

China’s youth unemployment rate, which was above 20% for a third consecutive month, could climb even higher in July, government officials warned on Monday. It’s expected to cool after the summer — a traditionally high time for unemployment among young people, when they have graduated and are looking for jobs.

“The youth unemployment rate is more of a structural issue,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China & North Asia at Standard Chartered Plc. He added that the government will likely take more targeted measures to address that issue, rather than “blanket stimulus” including interest rate cuts.

Deflation risk is now real

Concerns about deflation mounted last week after China reported no growth in consumer prices in June and a 5.4% contraction in producer prices. Monday’s data showed the GDP deflator, a measure of economy-wide prices, was negative in the second quarter for the first time since 2020. The deflator is calculated as the difference between the nominal GDP growth rate and inflation-adjusted rate.

The “risk of deflation is serious,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management.

–With assistance from Rebecca Choong Wilkins and Yujing Liu.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

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