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Waning Covid Cases Helped India's Economy Steady in July – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — Sign up for the New Economy Daily newsletter, follow us @economics and subscribe to our podcast.

India’s economy held steady in July as waning Covid-19 cases paved the way for a gradual improvement in manufacturing and services activity.

All eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News remained unchanged last month, based on the three-month weighted average scores to smoothen out volatility in the single-month readings. That kept the needle on a dial measuring the so-called animal spirits steady at 5 — the same speed as June.

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Relaxation in restrictions and a lower-than-expected hit to the economy from the second wave of the pandemic is fueling hopes of a faster recovery in coming months. Data due Aug. 31. will likely show gross domestic product expanded 21% in the April to June quarter from a year ago. That is thanks mainly to a favorable base effect, with activity last year coming to a halt owing to a nationwide lockdown to control the virus’s spread.

Here are the details of the dashboard for July:

Business Activity

Factory managers in India saw a surge in activity in July, reflecting a pick up in orders as pandemic curbs were lifted. A similar survey of services’ purchasing managers showed improvement, although the reading remained below the 50 level that divides contraction and expansion. That kept the composite index in shrinkage territory during the month.

Exports

Exports rose 49.8% year-on-year in July. While that was way slower than the 196% increase seen in April, the ebbing gains largely reflect the base effect wearing off. Two positive takeaways are the return of demand for petroleum products, with shipments jumping 231%, and gems and jewelry exports growing 131%. 

Consumer Activity

Retail auto sales, a bellwether of consumer demand, posted robust sales despite a steep rise in commodity prices and supply disruptions, according to Rajesh Menon, director general of the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. Motorcycle and two-wheeler sales, an indicator of animal spirits in smaller towns, were little changed last month. 

Bank credit grew 6.5% in July from a year earlier, picking up from the 5.8% level seen in June, to post the fastest pace since March, central bank data showed. Liquidity conditions remained comfortable last month, with the banking system flush with surplus cash, implying room for better credit off-take.

Industrial Activity

Industrial production expanded 13.6% in June from a year earlier, slowing for a second straight month after a record 135% growth in April. Easing gains are again attributable to the base effect wearing out.

Similarly, output at infrastructure industries, which makes up 40% of the industrial production index, expanded 8.9% in June, slowing from year-on-year growth of 16.3% in May and 61% in April. Both data are published with a one-month lag.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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China Wants Everyone to Trade In Their Old Cars, Fridges to Help Save Its Economy – Bloomberg

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China’s world-beating electric vehicle industry, at the heart of growing trade tensions with the US and Europe, is set to receive a big boost from the government’s latest effort to accelerate growth.

That’s one takeaway from what Beijing has revealed about its plan for incentives that will encourage Chinese businesses and households to adopt cleaner technologies. It’s widely expected to be one of this year’s main stimulus programs, though question-marks remain — including how much the government will spend.

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German Business Outlook Hits One-Year High as Economy Heals – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — German business sentiment improved to its highest level in a year — reinforcing recent signs that Europe’s largest economy is exiting two years of struggles.

An expectations gauge by the Ifo institute rose to 89.9. in April from a revised 87.7 the previous month. That exceeds the 88.9 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A measure of current conditions also advanced.

“Sentiment has improved at companies in Germany,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. “Companies were more satisfied with their current business. Their expectations also brightened. The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers.”

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A stronger global economy and the prospect of looser monetary policy in the euro zone are helping drag Germany out of the malaise that set in following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week that the country may have “turned the corner,” while Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also expressed optimism, citing record employment and retreating inflation.

There’s been a particular shift in the data in recent weeks, with the Bundesbank now estimating that output rose in the first quarter, having only a month ago foreseen a contraction that would have ushered in a first recession since the pandemic.

Even so, the start of the year “didn’t go great,” according to Fuest. 

“What we’re seeing at the moment confirms the forecasts, which are saying that growth will be weak in Germany, but at least it won’t be negative,” he told Bloomberg Television. “So this is the stabilization we expected. It’s not a complete recovery. But at least it’s a start.”

Monthly purchasing managers’ surveys for April brought more cheer this week as Germany returned to expansion for the first time since June 2023. Weak spots remain, however — notably in industry, which is still mired in a slump that’s being offset by a surge in services activity.

“We see an improving worldwide economy,” Fuest said. “But this doesn’t seem to reach German manufacturing, which is puzzling in a way.”

Germany, which was the only Group of Seven economy to shrink last year and has been weighing on the wider region, helped private-sector output in the 20-nation euro area strengthen this month, S&P Global said.

–With assistance from Joel Rinneby, Kristian Siedenburg and Francine Lacqua.

(Updates with more comments from Fuest starting in sixth paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Parallel economy: How Russia is defying the West’s boycott

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When Moscow resident Zoya, 62, was planning a trip to Italy to visit her daughter last August, she saw the perfect opportunity to buy the Apple Watch she had long dreamed of owning.

Officially, Apple does not sell its products in Russia.

The California-based tech giant was one of the first companies to announce it would exit the country in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

But the week before her trip, Zoya made a surprise discovery while browsing Yandex.Market, one of several Russian answers to Amazon, where she regularly shops.

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Not only was the Apple Watch available for sale on the website, it was cheaper than in Italy.

Zoya bought the watch without a moment’s delay.

The serial code on the watch that was delivered to her home confirmed that it was manufactured by Apple in 2022 and intended for sale in the United States.

“In the store, they explained to me that these are genuine Apple products entering Russia through parallel imports,” Zoya, who asked to be only referred to by her first name, told Al Jazeera.

“I thought it was much easier to buy online than searching for a store in an unfamiliar country.”

Nearly 1,400 companies, including many of the most internationally recognisable brands, have since February 2022 announced that they would cease or dial back their operations in Russia in protest of Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine.

But two years after the invasion, many of these companies’ products are still widely sold in Russia, in many cases in violation of Western-led sanctions, a months-long investigation by Al Jazeera has found.

Aided by the Russian government’s legalisation of parallel imports, Russian businesses have established a network of alternative supply chains to import restricted goods through third countries.

The companies that make the products have been either unwilling or unable to clamp down on these unofficial distribution networks.

 

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