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Want to Understand the Weird Economy? Watch the Super Bowl.

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What’s the best way to understand the economy? I guess you could ask around about it. Hey, you might say to a stranger, do you have a job? All right, and your weekly income? Thanks, and how much did you last pay for eggs? You could also read government reports on employment and prices, but they’re long and complicated, and they have broad error margins.

So maybe just watch the Super Bowl.

Advertising might be the art of fibbing responsibly, but marketing budgets can’t help but be honest: You either spend $7 million on a 30-second spot or you don’t. That’s why the biggest day in American sports, which is also the biggest day in American ads, is a useful measure of which firms and sectors believe themselves to be the future of the economy—and why it’s an excellent barometer for bubbles.

In 2000, 14 young “dot-com” companies bought ad time in the Super Bowl, including Pets.com, OnMoney.com, E-Stamps.com, Epidemic.com, HotJobs.com, and e1040.com. The next year, the dot-com bubble had popped, and the software industry slashed its advertising budget below the threshold of Super Bowl spots. Two decades later, almost all of the above start-ups are dead.

Last year, a cluster of crypto companies—including FTX, Coinbase, Crypto.com, and eToro—ran ads during the big game. The surge of blockchain-related spots inspired some people to call it the Crypto Bowl. But since then, crypto-asset values have crashed. Several crypto firms have gone bankrupt. And FTX, the brainchild of the disgraced crypto maven Sam Bankman-Fried, is a dumpster fire. And what do you know, the industry has “zero representation” at this year’s Super Bowl.

In general, the ad roster seems to be snapping back to the pre-COVID status quo. Anheuser-Busch leads all firms with three minutes of airtime. Other alcohol brands such as Heineken and Diageo are in. So are M&M’s and Doritos and movie studios and automakers. This year’s Super Bowl is going to feel a lot like 2019 or 2020—except with a shiny fleet of new electric vehicles.

This sharp pendulum swing to crypto and back to junk food is clearly reminiscent of the dot-com boom and bust. But it’s also reflective of what I’ve called the yo-yo nature of the pandemic economy.

The clampdown on the physical world in 2020 funneled economic activity online. Restaurants closed, and streaming accounts opened. Investors poured into speculative tech such as crypto, believing that we were accelerating into a berserk digitized future. When the pandemic receded and the economy recovered, inflation spiked, rates increased, and risky start-ups and growth stocks that thrived in a low-rate environment crashed. It’s the revenge of the touch-grass economy.

The crypto yo-yo is just one of many vertiginous ups and downs that the U.S. economy has gone through in the past few years. Gas prices went up and down; shipping costs went up and down; the price growth of durable goods (think: furniture, jewelry) went up and down; savings rates, housing investment, and tech employment went up and down.

I’m anxious about saying something as simplistic as “the U.S. economy is just a long line of price bubbles,” but that’s true enough. The crypto bubble reflected in last year’s Super Bowl really is a microcosm of the U.S. economy.

And yet. Some bubbles enjoy life after death. The dot-com companies that perished in the early 2000s fertilized the software boom that changed the world in the 2010s. Although the 2023 Super Bowl clearly represents a return to the old normal, we might look back two decades from now and see that, just as the death of Pets.com augured the rise of online shopping, the bursting of the crypto bubbles presaged the rise of a new weird kind of digital economy. I guess we have no choice but to keep watching.

Derek Thompson is a staff writer at The Atlantic and the author of the Work in Progress newsletter.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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