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Warning: Canada's Real Estate Market Could Plunge 33% – The Motley Fool Canada

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Cracks are appearing in Canada’s real estate market. The residential property sector has been kept afloat by robust immigration, strong job numbers, and easy liquidity. Now, all three factors have receded, which means a housing market crash could be imminent in 2020. 

Things are worse for the commercial real estate sector. Shops, malls, hair salons, and office buildings have been abandoned altogether. These businesses aren’t designed to withstand a prolonged shutdown. With income drying up, tenants could be at risk of missing rent payments, which ultimately dents the landlord’s balance sheet. 

Here’s a closer look at what’s ahead for Canada’s real estate sector and how investors can protect themselves. 

Real estate correction

For much of the past decade, Canada’s real estate sector has been a source of immense wealth creation. A booming economy coupled with strong immigration created ample demand for houses, shops, and office space across the country. Record-low interest rates amplified this demand further. Debt was cheap, so landlords splurged. 

In fact, the market was so strong that real estate investment trusts (REITs) outperformed the rest of the stock market over the past 10 years. The iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index ETF delivered 6.9% compounded annual growth since 2010. The iShares TSX 60 Index delivered only 4.4% over the same period. 

However, the real estate market was, arguably, overvalued. The rental yield was too low, and the leverage ratio was too high. In other words, investors were counting on capital appreciation rather than income to drive results. Now, the market could lose value. 

REITs at the epicentre

Online searches for keywords like “force majeure” or “can’t pay rent” have skyrocketed in recent weeks. Meanwhile, major banks and private lenders have become more risk averse. It’s a lot more difficult to get a mortgage now. 

Commercial landlords, like American Hotel Income Properties and Brookfield Property Partners are particularly vulnerable. Small businesses are shutting down on an unprecedented scale. This could expand the vacancy rate and lower the rental yield on all their properties. 

With banks pulling back on lending and unemployment skyrocketing, the residential market could face a similar problem. According to the International Monetary Fund, real estate in Canada’s largest cities were nearly 50% overvalued last year. That means a 33% correction could make the properties “fairly valued.” 

Now that the economy has been disrupted, that plunge to fair value seems like a real possibility in 2020. Stocks like Boardwalk REIT and Minto are particularly vulnerable to a correction in the residential real estate sector.  

Investors who’ve relied on these rock-solid dividend stocks may have to take a step back. I wouldn’t be surprised if a number of high-profile REITs cut or suspended their dividends over the next few months. 

Essential REITs

Some businesses and sectors are booming, because the government has deemed them essential during this crisis. Grocery stores and healthcare properties, for example, have seen a surge in demand. These properties are better placed to withstand the ongoing economic storm. 

Investors looking for a robust income stream during this crisis should take a closer look at Northwest Healthcare Properties and Brookfield Infrastructure Partners. These REITs offer attractive dividend yields and better prospects for the years ahead. 


Fool contributor Vishesh Raisinghani has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends BROOKFIELD INFRA PARTNERS LP UNITS, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, Brookfield Property Partners LP, and NORTHWEST HEALTHCARE PPTYS REIT UNITS.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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