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War's high toll on the Russian economy – The Hill

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Historically, currency collapses and bank-runs generally do not end well for economies that experience them. The currency collapse and bank-run now occurring in Russia will prove to be no exception. As occurred during the 1998 Russian financial market crisis, Russians should brace themselves for a deep economic recession and high levels of unemployment as a direct result of the invasion.

Over the weekend, the United States and Europe substantially escalated financial market sanctions on Russia as the price for its Ukraine invasion. These sanctions included freezing assets of the Russian central bank and excluding certain Russian banks from the SWIFT banking system.

Anyone doubting that these sanctions have precipitated a Russian currency crisis and provoked a bank-run need only look at what has been happening on the ground in Russia.

With the Russian central bank now hobbled in its ability to defend the currency by international reserve sales from its $630 billion foreign exchange stockpile, the Russian ruble has plunged by more than 40 percent over the past few days. As a result, the ruble now only buys around 1 U.S. cent. This represents among the largest currency collapses on record and exceeds Russia’s 1998 currency collapse. That collapse in turn has contributed to the Russian stock market losing about half of its value since the invasion.

At the same time, as the public’s trust in the safety of their bank deposits has evaporated, long lines of people desperate to withdraw their deposits have been seen at banks around the country. This has forced the central bank to have to assure depositors that the banks are sound and to more than double interest rates to 20 percent.

Normally a country in Russia’s dire financial market straits would approach the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for an economic adjustment program that might help restore lost credibility. By doing so, it would hope to receive the IMF’s seal of approval of its policies and its financial support. But with the country effectively at war with the West, this is hardly an option open to Russian economic policymakers. 

One way that the Russian central bank could quell a bank run is by printing all the rubles that depositors might demand to take out of the banks. However, printing money on such a scale would be a sure recipe for further currency weakness and for putting the country on the path for an economically destructive bout of hyperinflation.

Another way that Russian economic policymakers can respond to the crisis is in the way that they now seem to be choosing to do. They can let the currency find its own level and they can sharply increase interest rates. But this runs the risk of bankrupting many domestic companies and households by substantially increasing their debt servicing costs, especially of dollar-denominated debt. A wave of bankruptcies is hardly likely to restore confidence in the banks or to help stabilize the currency. 

This leaves Russian policymakers with the less unpalatable but still costly option of imposing exchange rate controls and strict limits on the amount of money that depositors can withdraw from the banks. While such measures can stabilize the currency and quell bank runs, they will do so at the heavy long-run economic cost of preventing a properly functioning financial system.

All of this suggests that whatever foreign policy objectives Russian President Vladimir PutinVladimir Vladimirovich PutinBiden State of the Union: A plea for unity in unusual times Watch: Key moments from Biden’s first State of the Union address Reynolds response hammers Biden for ‘weakness on world stage’ MORE might achieve by his Ukraine invasion, they will come at a very heavy economic cost for the average Russian household. It is far from clear that the Russian citizenry will think that Putin’s war was worth their having to pay those economic costs.

Desmond Lachman is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He was formerly a deputy director in the International Monetary Fund’s Policy Development and Review Department and the chief emerging market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney 

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Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

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