"We saw a major shift": How did Covid-19 impact the real estate market? We asked TREB's senior analyst - Toronto Life | Canada News Media
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"We saw a major shift": How did Covid-19 impact the real estate market? We asked TREB's senior analyst – Toronto Life

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“We saw a major shift”: How did Covid-19 impact the real estate market? We asked TREB’s senior analyst

Earlier this week, the Toronto Real Estate Board released its market report for March 2020, which includes information about property transactions in the GTA. As Covid-19 keeps locals on lockdown and nearly halts the economy, most people are wondering how significantly the virus impacted the real estate landscape. We spoke to Jason Mercer, TREB’s senior market analyst, about how Covid-19 killed a red-hot market and why there’s reason for cautious optimism.

Could you summarize the Toronto real estate market before the Covid-19 pandemic? 

Right into March, we saw a continuation of 2019, when a lot of buyers who had previously moved to the sidelines were starting to purchase homes. The market had tightened, meaning increased competition among buyers and a high volume of listings resulting in sales. Those factors typically lead to an acceleration in price. For the first half of March 2020, sales were up 46 per cent over March 2019. For historical context, the Toronto market peaked in 2016 with a record 113,000 sales. Then, in the first quarter of 2017, the Fair Housing Plan came into effect, which included a 15 per cent non-resident tax and expanded rent control. That was followed by the new OSFI mortgage stress test rules in 2018, which made it more difficult to borrow. So for the better part of two years, we saw a dip in sales as a result, which is often the case when government policy targets a certain sector of the economy. But demand accumulates over time. After that, you get a return to the marketplace in fairly strong numbers. That’s what we saw in early March.

A month ago, TREB issued a report predicting 97,000 sales in 2020. Is it safe to assume that you’d like to amend that estimate? 

Yes. That prediction came out on February 6, so that’s what we forecasted then, along with $900,000 for the average price in GTA, Halton, Peel, Toronto, Durham and some of the smaller municipalities. That’s for all home types including condos. We were well on the way to that sales figure, if not higher. Then, in mid-March, when serious measures were taken across Ontario to prevent the spread of Covid-19,  we saw a major shift in market activity. We haven’t updated our predictions yet. We’re only a couple of weeks into the period of enforced social distancing, so we need a little more time to evaluate what’s happening. When we’re midway through April, we’ll be able to provide a more accurate forecast.

In the meantime, which market indicators are you keeping an eye on?

I’m looking at the health-related forecasts, specifically those that look at how long we’ll be social distancing. There was a piece in the Globe recently, based on research out of Simon Fraser University, which laid out some predictions. Last Friday, when the premier gave us the predictions on health outlook, there was a considerable range: between 3,000 and 15,000 deaths, depending on how successfully we self-isolate. So that’s what we’re waiting to see. If you look at the greatest driver of economic growth in Canada, it’s the consumer sector. At the moment, health is the major concern, but once we get on the other side of this, consumers are going to want to dip into the marketplace again, whether that’s going out to restaurants, shopping or resuming their search for a home. The recovery for this will likely be quite fast. It’s just a matter of when that recovery will start.

I like your sunny outlook, but what about all the consumers who go several weeks or months without earning an income?

Certainly, a lot of households are going to feel the pinch from an income perspective. That’s just another factor that depends on duration. Where we may see some differences here compared to a traditional recession is the way the federal government has acted quickly to account for some of the lost wages. A lot of companies are taking advantage of the 75 per cent top-up. We’ve seen that with Air Canada, where they were able to rehire a lot of employees. The point is: there are more programs in place to help people get through this.

Before Covid-19, the biggest issue with the Toronto real estate market was that supply couldn’t meet demand. Is that still the case?

Right into early March, we saw sales growth overtake listing growth, which meant conditions were getting tighter and prices were accelerating. In the second half of the month, we saw a dip in both sales and new listings. When you look at it on a year-over-year basis, both were down by a similar amount. That means the relationship between buyers and sellers has remained consistent—there’s still a similar number of people interested in each individual listing. If that continues, prices might remain relatively stable.

And if it doesn’t, is there a possible silver lining for buyers looking to break into the previously impenetrable Toronto market?

If listings increase and sales flatten or go down, buyers are going to have more negotiating power, but right now it doesn’t make a lot of sense to be out there buying. I think we’re still going to see people taking a wait-and-see approach. The case may be that people want to take advantage of the change in market conditions, but it’s hard to do that when people are being asked to stay at home.

And yet your latest report shows 3,300 sales happened after Ontarians were asked to isolate at home. What does that mean?

I think it’s likely that a lot of those deals were already in progress before self-isolation measures were implemented. We’re going to have to wait until April to really get a sense of the market under strong social-distancing orders.

When the market does come back, is there any type of buyer who may be particularly well-positioned?

I would say first-time buyers may have a possible advantage, in that they won’t have to worry about selling, so they’ll have greater flexibility and could potentially move in right away.

Any predictions on what’s going to happen with mortgage rates in the next six months? The next year?

In the short term, I’d imagine the Bank of Canada will be holding firm until recovery is well under way. The impact on variable rates is likely that they’ll remain somewhat flat, at very low levels. Fixed-term rates are more based on yields in the bond market. From a short-term perspective, right now, rates are low. Considering it’s a tough time in the economy, expect to see rates remain low as we move into 2021.

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Competition Bureau gets court order for probe into Canadian Real Estate Association

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The Competition Bureau says it’s obtained a court order as part of an investigation into potential anti-competitive conduct by the Canadian Real Estate Association.

The bureau says its investigation is looking into whether CREA’s commission rules discourage buyers’ realtors fromoffering lower commission rates or whether they affect competition in other ways.

It’s also looking into whether CREA’s realtor co-operation policy makes it harder for alternative listing services to compete with the major listing services, or gives larger brokerages an unfair advantage over smaller ones.

The court order requires CREA to produce records and information relevant to the investigation, the bureau said, adding the investigation is ongoing and there is no conclusion of wrongdoing at this time.

CREA’s membership includes more than 160,000 real estate brokers, agents and salespeople.

The association said it’s co-operating with the bureau’s investigation.

In a statement, CREA chair James Mabey said the organization believes its rules and policies are “pro-competitive and pro-consumer” and help increase transparency.

Court documents show the bureau’s inquiry began in June, as the competition commissioner said he had reason to believe CREA engaged in conduct impeding the ability of real estate agents to compete.

The documents note CREA owns the MLS and Multiple Listing Service trademarks and owns and operates realtor.ca, which real estate groups use to list homes for sale.

Websites like realtor.ca are where the public can view home listings, while MLS systems contain data that’s only accessible to agents such as additional information on listings, sales activity in the area and neighbourhood descriptions. Some of this data is not publicly available for privacy reasons.

Access to the MLS system is a perk offered to members by real estate boards and associations.

The Competition Bureau in recent years has been reviewing whether the limited public access to these systems stunts competition or innovation in the real estate sector.

Property listings on an MLS system must include a commission offer to the buyers’ agent, and when a listing is sold, often the agent for the buyer is paid by theseller’s agent, according to the court documents.

They allege these rules reduce incentives for buyers’ agents to offer lower commissions because if buyers aren’t directly paying their agent, they may be less likely to select an agent based on their commission rate.

The bureau alleges the rules also incentivize buyers’ agents to steer their clients away from listings with lower-than-average commissions.

The documents also say CREA’s co-operation policy, which came into force at the beginning of 2024, favours larger brokerages because of their ability to advertise to bigger networks of agents.

The policy requires residential real estate listings to be added to an MLS system within three days of them being publicly marketed, such as through flyers, yard signs or online promotions.

The documents also allege the co-operation policy disadvantages alternative listing services as it’s harder for them to compete on things like privacy or inventory.

Last year, the Competition Bureau said it was investigating whether the Quebec Professional Association for Real Estate Brokers’ data-sharing restrictions were stifling competition in the housing market.

It obtained a court order in February 2023 related to the ongoing investigation, looking into whether QPAREB and its subsidiary, Société Centris, engaged in practices that harm competition or prevent the development of innovative online brokerage services in the province.

Much of the data-sharing activity in question was linked to an MLS for Quebec real estate.

— With files from Tara Deschamps

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 3, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Toronto home sales rose in September as buyers took advantage of lower rates, prices

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in September rose as buyers began taking advantage of interest rate cuts and lower home prices.

The board says 4,996 homes were sold last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 8.5 per cent compared with 4,606 in the same month last year. Sales were up from August on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was down one per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,107,291.

The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 4.6 per cent year-over-year.

The board’s CEO John DiMichele says recently introduced mortgage rules, including longer amortization periods, will give home buyers more options and flexibility as the housing market recovers.

New listings last month totalled 18,089, up 10.5 per cent from a year earlier.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 3, 2024.

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Vancouver home sales down 3.8% in Sept. as lower rates fail to entice buyers: board

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Vancouver-area home sales dropped 3.8 per cent in September compared with the same month last year, while listings grew to put modest pressure on pricing, said Greater Vancouver Realtors on Wednesday.

There were 1,852 sales of existing residential homes last month, which is 26 per cent below the 10-year average, and down 2.7 per cent, not seasonally adjusted, from August.

The board says the results show recent interest rate cuts haven’t yet led to the expected rebound in activity, and that sales are still coming in below its forecast.

“September figures don’t offer the signal that many are watching for,” said Andrew Lis, the board’s director of economics and data analytics, in a statement.

The Bank of Canada has already delivered three interest rate cuts this year to bring its policy rate to 4.25 per cent. With further cuts expected at its next two decisions, including what some banks say could be a half-percentage-point cut, there’s still room for an upward swing in the market, said Lis.

“With two more policy rate decisions to go this year, and all signs pointing to further reductions, it’s not inconceivable that demand may still pick up later this fall should buyers step off the sidelines.”

For now though, there are many more sellers entering the market than buyers.

There were 6,144 newly listed properties in September, up 12.8 per cent from last year, to bring the total number of listings to 14,932. The total number of listings makes for a 31 per cent jump from last year, and is sitting 24 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average.

The combination of fewer sales and more listings left the composite benchmark price at $1,179,700, which is down 1.8 per cent from September 2023 and down 1.4 per cent from August.

The benchmark price for detached homes stood at $2.02 million, up 0.5 per cent from last year but down 1.3 per cent from August. The benchmark for apartment homes came in at $762,000, a 0.8 per cent decrease from both last year and August 2024.

The board says the sales-to-active listings ratio across residential property types was at 12.8 per cent in September, including 9.1 per cent for detached homes, while historical data indicates downward price pressure happens when the ratio dips below 12.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 2, 2024.

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