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Week in Review: Pandemics and Politics – Balkan Insight

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Going Nowhere Quickly


Pedestrians walk in the Serb dominated northern part of the ethnically divided town of Mitrovica, Kosovo, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE/VALDRIN XHEMAJ

If the dialogue on normalising relations between Kosovo and Serbia was not complicated enough, the COVID-19 pandemic has added another layer of complexity. So has the recent vote of no confidence in the Kosovo Government.

Our analysis explores the challenges facing negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, over and above the usual disagreements. Analysts seem to agree that it is unrealistic to expect any progress until the pandemic subsides. Yet even after that, numerous challenges will remain – Serbia will hold elections, while Kosovo will need to resolve its own political crisis. Not least, rival mediators are competing to lead the dialogue.

Read more: Pandemic Adds Fresh Uncertainty to Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue (April 16, 2020)


Power Politics


Turkish Military Cargo Plane which carries medical aid lands Sarajevo International Airport Photo: Twitter account of NATO Headquarters Sarajevo

Powers great and small from around the world are competing with each other to provide medical aid to the countries of the Balkan region – at least in part to counterbalance each other’s influence – albeit at differing speeds.

Despite a growing pandemic crisis at home, Turkey is racing not to be outdone, or at least to remain at the table. Turkish military planes bearing aid landed in Belgrade, Podgorica, Pristina, Sarajevo and Skopje bearing medical aid on April 8. The aid came with the best wishes of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Yet while Turkey rushes to project power in the region, a crisis rages closer to home.

Read more: With Balkan Aid Flights, Turkey Projects Big-Power Image (April 10, 2020)


Risky Ideas


People in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE/FEHIM DEMIR

In what seems to have been a clumsy attempt to prevent the spread of COVID 19, Bosnia’s Croat-dominated Canton 10 attempted on March 22 to prevent the entry of other Bosnian citizens – apart from the police, army and medics – into the canton. The rationale was that the canton was, on the one hand, still corona-free, while on the other it lacked the resources to handle any outbreak.

The decision was quickly withdrawn after outrage in Sarajevo, where Bosniak politicians saw the move as unconstitutional, even claiming it smacked of separatism, or an attempt to force the creation of a long-mooted third entity. In light of this, Valentino Grbavac offers a thought-provoking analysis of what Bosnian Croat politicians really want. Despite their rhetoric about a third entity, as well as broad support among Bosnian Croats for the idea, Grbavac argues that those same political elites would stand to lose much from the implementation of such an idea.

Read more: Third Entity Would Destroy Bosnia’s Croat Political Elite (April 10, 2020)


Stuck


Migrants at a military barrack in Blazuj, suburbs of Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Photo: EPA-EFE/FEHIM DEMIR

One of the neglected aspects of the coronavirus pandemic in the Balkans is how it is affecting migrants and refugees stuck in camps along the ‘Balkan route’. Social distancing and lock downs are bad enough for those stuck in their homes.

But what about those stuck in camps which lack basic amenities even at the best of times? Our report looks at how migrants and refugees stuck in these camps are coping in Bosnia and Serbia.

Read more: Movement Ban Worsens Migrants’ Plight in Serbia, Bosnia (April 9, 2020)


Pollution Problems


Power plant Kostolac, B block, in eastern Serbia. Photo: eps.rs

Air pollution is one of the biggest, yet probably least talked about killers in Serbia, as in much of the Balkans. Some estimates put the number of pollution-related deaths at 175 per 100,000 people, one of the highest in Europe. The World Health Organization estimates that around 6,500 people die prematurely in Serbia due to poor air quality each year.

Despite this, the Serbian Government has done remarkably little to reign in the country’s coal-fired power plants, one of the main sources of the problem. At the beginning of the year, Europe’s Energy Community opened proceedings against Serbia due to the country’s failure to adopt a national harmful emissions strategy. We analyse the scale of the problem and what is (not) being done about it.

Read more: No Limits: Serbia Fails to Rein in Coal-Fired Polluters (April 15, 2020)


Flying the Flag(s)


Young Montenegrin girls wrap the national flag. Photo: EPA/BORIS PEJOVIC

Flying flags might seem like a benign topic at first sight, but in many countries it is a sensitive issue. This is particularly so in the countries of the former Yugoslavia, with their burdens of recent wars and sizeable ethnic minorities.

Montenegro is one country which has, until recently, had very restrictive laws on the flying of flags of other nations. Last December, the law was relaxed somewhat to allow the flying of flags of recognized minorities, albeit alongside the Montenegrin flag. Yet many representatives of non-Montenegrin communities complain that the legal framework is still too restrictive.

Read more: Montenegro Loosens Rules on National Flags, but Debate Still Rages (April 13, 2020)

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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