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Welcome to the worst economy ever – CNN

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This is the worst economy ever. That’s according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who previewed some truly awful economic data headed our way when he spoke to reporters Wednesday.
“We are going to see economic data for the second quarter that is worse than any data we have seen for the economy,” Powell said. “There are direct consequences of the disease and measures we are taking to protect ourselves from it.”
It’s worse for minorities than for white Americans. Powell noted that a few months ago, the US labor market was the best ever for minorities. But as stay-at-home orders have shuttered restaurants, movie theaters, retailers and many other businesses, a disproportionate number of non-white Americans have lost their jobs.
“It is heartbreaking, frankly, to see that all threatened now,” Powell said of previous gains in non-white unemployment.
Read a deep dive into the economic data for the first part of the year, when the coronavirus stopped a booming economy in its tracks.
Health care hurt the economy. But not for the reason you think. Incredibly, one of the biggest drivers of decline was the health care industry. As hundreds of thousands of Americans contracted a deadly virus, overwhelming hospitals in New York especially, it was the suspension of money-making elective procedures that created one of the biggest hits to the economy.
Nonessential health care, essential meat processing. While much of the economy remains shut by the government, President Donald Trump essentially deemed meat processors essential to national security and has said, despite safety concerns, that they must stay open.
Tyson Foods, one of the largest meat processors, has promised two $500 bonuses for some workers. And they are ramping up safety in their plants.
It’s notable, however, that a good portion of the workers in meat processing plants are immigrants and minorities.
Read this story from CNN Business, which quotes a meat plant worker who tested positive for Covid-19 and doesn’t think many of his coworkers will return to the shuttered plant at the moment:
“I’m still trying to figure out: What is he going to do, force them to stay open? Force people to go to work?” he asked.
Human sacrifice zones. David Michaels was the Assistant Secretary of Labor for Occupational Safety and Health during the Obama administration. He slammed Trump’s executive order during an appearance on CNN.
“What President Trump has done is said, ‘We solved the bottleneck, we’re going to make you stay open,'” Michaels said. “It is a disaster for workers. We’re making these workplaces, these meat packing plants into human sacrifice zones.”

Very good news

There’s great hope about a drug called remdesivir to treat Covid-19. And the government broke normal protocol to tell us all about it.
Recovering more quickly — New data suggests patients with severe Covid-19 who took remdesivir could recover faster than patients who didn’t take it, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said Wednesday.
Fauci feels good — “The data shows that remdesivir has a clear-cut, significant, positive effect in diminishing the time to recovery,” said the institute’s director, Dr. Anthony Fauci.
It’s not a 100% recovery rate, but… — “Although a 31% improvement doesn’t seem like a knockout 100%, it is very important proof of concept,” Fauci said. “What it has proven is that a drug can block this virus.”
Telling us early — Normally, data about a drug’s efficacy wouldn’t be released this early from a preliminary trial.
But “whenever you have clear-cut evidence that a drug works, you have an ethical obligation to immediately let the people in the placebo group know so that they can have access,” Fauci said.

‘Operation Warp Speed’

The Trump administration is launching a project to accelerate the development of a potential coronavirus vaccine, a senior administration official told CNN’s Jim Acosta. The project, called “Operation Warp Speed,” has the goal of manufacturing hundreds of millions of doses that can be made available to Americans by the end of the year, the official said. Read more here.
This is great! And I don’t want to complain about it (I suggested a real-deal Manhattan Project in this newsletter this week). But why are they just now doing this? Why didn’t they do this months ago, before tens of thousands of Americans died?

Trump and Kushner have their own reality

On Tuesday, Trump told a reporter the US would soon be able to meet a Harvard-researcher-recommended benchmark of 5 million tests per day.
That same day Trump’s person in charge of testing said that would never happen.
“There is absolutely no way on Earth, on this planet or any other planet, that we can do 20 million tests a day, or even 5 million tests a day,” Adm. Brett Giroir, the assistant secretary of health, told Time Magazine.
He called the Harvard recommendation an “Ivory Tower, unreasonable benchmark.”
A great success? Really? Presidential adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner bragged about the level of testing in the US during an interview on Fox News. He predicted much of the country would essentially be back to normal in June, and called the whole thing a success.
“Now that the tests are out there, it’s really about scaling supply chain, really in a historic manner and pace. So somebody asked me why it took so long, you should look at how did we do this so quickly? What’s really happened, it’s really extraordinary. So we don’t want to let Dr. Fauci down and we will make sure we get enough tests into the market,” he said.

Data vs. decisionmaking

It does not appear any states have met the vague White House-endorsed benchmark of 14 days of downward virus trajectory. About half are starting to open up anyway.
Among the notable openers — Georgia and Texas — there has certainly not been a decrease.
We’ve actually got a chart for new infections in every US state. See them here.
And while anyone looking objectively at the curve of infections and deaths might wonder why things have plateaued, Kushner says that “we are on the other side of the medical aspect of this.”
State of denial still. CNN’s Stephen Collinson put it extremely well (as he always does), when he stated the clear fact that Trump still doesn’t grasp the enormity of this:
Humanity is facing three crises at the very least — medical, economic and social — that will cause financial and geopolitical reverberations for years. The grim state of the economy was underscored Wednesday morning when it was reported that first-quarter GDP fell 4.8%, the worst contraction since the Great Recession.
Yet Trump says he sees “light at the end of the tunnel” and acts as if America is nearly home free.

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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