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What a 20% unemployment rate would actually mean for our politics – CNN

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While Mnuchin made clear this was just one of a number of possible scenarios and Congress seems poised to pass a massive stimulus bill as soon as today, it’s worth thinking about the political impact of a 20% unemployment rate.

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(Nota bene: Obviously political considerations aren’t the first thing any of us would think about if unemployment even approximated these levels. It would be the people who are out of work and how we could get them back in the workforce. But such a drastic change in the labor market would quite clearly have major political consequences.)
Let’s dig into the history of extremely high unemployment rates — and what they meant politically.
The only time the unemployment rate has been over 20% in modern American history in a four-year period from 1932 to 1935 — right in the teeth of the Great Depression. During that time, the unemployment rate peaked at 24.9% in 1933.
The 1932 presidential election saw the public turn strongly against President Herbert Hoover, handing his challenger Franklin Roosevelt a sweeping victory. Down-ballot Democrats picked up nearly 100 House seats and retook control of the Senate based on voters blaming Hoover and Republicans for the Great Depression.
Democrats built on those gains at the congressional level in the 1934 midterm election — buoyed by Roosevelt’s New Deal policies. Two years later Roosevelt was reelected in a landslide as his party again picked up seats in the House and Senate. (By December of 1936, the unemployment rate had dropped to 16.9%.)
After years of single-digit unemployment rates, it wasn’t until 1982 when the unemployment rate again skyrocketed — back up to 10.8% in December of that year — amid a recession that actually began in 1981. It was President Ronald Reagan’s first midterm election after winning the White House in 1980 and he entered it with high unpopularity numbers due to the state of the economy. Democrats picked up 27 seats in the House although they netted only a single Senate seat.
By 1984, however, the recession was over, unemployment dipped back to 7.3% in December and Reagan, like Roosevelt in 1936, won a crushing national victory — beating Minnesota Sen. Walter Mondale everywhere but in the senator’s home state.
Then came the financial crisis of 2008. Unemployment that year was 7.3% in December, but the failures of major Wall Street banks that fall suggested massive volatility in the labor market. Barack Obama, running on a message of hope and change, easily defeated John McCain, who had fatefully said that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong” in the midst of the collapse. Democrats also picked up eight Senate seats and almost two dozen House seats.
By 2009, the unemployment rate had soared to 9.9% and voter anger with the lack of progress made by Obama to turn things around led to a disastrous 2010 midterm election for the president’s party. Republicans scored a massive 63-seat gain in the House as the GOP took back the chamber.
By December 2012, however, with the unemployment rate back under 8%, Obama was reelected and Democrats picked up seats in the House and Senate.
What does all of that tell us about what a soaring unemployment rate — even if it falls well short of Mnuchin’s doomsday 20% prediction — could mean for the 2020 election? The short answer is BIG change, that would likely fall heavily on Republicans in the White House and Senate.
But — and this is very important — the challenge posed by the coronavirus is unlike any of these past economic downturns. While in the past blame could be laid at the feet of the occupant of the White House for instituting (or not instituting) policies that brought about such an unemployment mess, it’s far more difficult to blame an administration for a global pandemic.
Does that mean voters won’t? No. Voters — and people — aren’t terribly rational. If the unemployment rate is in the double digits come November, they may vote Trump out solely to effectuate a change, even if they don’t think he was terribly responsible for what happened.
The simple lesson from history is this: When we see unemployment rates anywhere near what Mnuchin floated on Tuesday, you can expect MAJOR shakeups in the political world to follow.

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Youri Chassin quits CAQ to sit as Independent, second member to leave this month

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Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.

He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.

In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.

Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.

He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.

Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.

He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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‘I’m not going to listen to you’: Singh responds to Poilievre’s vote challenge

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MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.

“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.

“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”

Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”

“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.

“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”

While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.

“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.

Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.

Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.

“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.

New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.

The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.

It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.

While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.

Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.

He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.

Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.

The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.

With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.

The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.

The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Social media comments blocked: Montreal mayor says she won’t accept vulgar slurs

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Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.

She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.

Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.

They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.

However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.

Her statement on X is closed to comments.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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