COVID-19 levels are declining from the devastating peaks of the second wave across much of Canada, but experts say the threat of more contagious coronavirus variants threatens to jeopardize our ability to prevent a third wave.
Canada has close to 850 confirmed cases of the variants first identified in the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, with at least six provinces now reporting community transmission — meaning there’s probably a lot more spreading beneath the surface than we know.
But as variant cases increase, overall COVID-19 numbers have dropped steadily in Canada, with just over 31,000 active cases across the country, about 2,900 new cases per week and 54 cases daily.
“Overall, we’re still doing well,” Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, said during a news conference on Tuesday. “But things could change rapidly.”
So, is Canada destined for a third wave? Or will we be able to adequately respond to the threat of variants spreading across the country to avoid one altogether?
Parts of the country that have seen notable declines in cases have recently moved to reopen non-essential businesses and lift lockdowns in the face of fast-spreading variants, despite public health officials cautioning against doing so.
WATCH | Federal modelling warns COVID-19 cases will rise with variants:
Variants are spreading and the virus is changing. But Ottawa’s new modelling reinforces a familiar message. Case rates may be down now, but ease up on restrictions too soon, and disaster could be close behind. 1:50
Is a 3rd wave in Canada inevitable?
Much like the first and second waves of the pandemic in Canada, the situation varies greatly across the country for a number of different reasons — ranging from geographic and demographic to political.
But even provinces and territories that have had fewer COVID-19 cases are still at high risk of devastating outbreaks, overwhelmed health-care systems and severe outcomes for vulnerable populations if variants spread rapidly.
Tam said Newfoundland and Labrador is a cautionary tale for the rest of Canada, where an outbreak of the variant first identified in the U.K., also known as B117, led to a spike in new cases in the community during a time when public health measures were “less stringent.”
“Provincial health authorities knew something was different when cases escalated over a matter of days, even before laboratory evidence confirmed the presence of the B117 variant,” she said.
Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease physician and scientist with Toronto General Hospital, said variants have made it hard for anyone to predict the likelihood of a bad third wave of the pandemic in Canada with any degree of confidence.
“When you factor in variants of concern and you factor in not enough immunity in the population to protect ourselves, it’s clear that a third wave is certainly a possibility,” he said. “But I wouldn’t say it’s an inevitability.”
Storm clouds are pictured above a shipping vessel moored in English Bay in Vancouver on Jan. 25. Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease physician and scientist with Toronto General Hospital, says a third wave of the pandemic is possible but not inevitable. (Ben Nelms/CBC)
Bogoch said the likelihood of a third wave depends on how Canadians respond to the loosening of restrictions and the increase in opportunities to mingle together and get into situations where the virus can more easily be transmitted.
“It also completely depends on how the provincial governments and the public health authorities choose to reopen their provinces and their ability to rapidly react to a rise in cases,” said Bogoch, a member of Ontario’s COVID-19 vaccine distribution task force.
“It doesn’t mean you have to stay locked down until everyone is vaccinated. It just means that as places reopen, they have to be extremely careful, proceed very slowly and be able to rapidly pivot if there’s any indication that there are cases plateauing or rising.”
What is the likelihood of a 3rd wave in Canada?
Raywat Deonandan, a global health epidemiologist and an associate professor at the University of Ottawa, says that based on what we know right now, a third wave is “mathematically inevitable” in Canada because of three key factors.
The first is we know what third waves typically look like from previous pandemics, such as the 1918 Spanish Flu, which saw a brutal third wave during the winter and spring of 1919 — around the same point of the pandemic we’re in now.
Deonandan said societal behaviour is another factor that could lead to a more severe third wave if variants drive outbreaks as restrictions left and Canadians don’t strictly adhere to public health guidelines.
And the third factor is variants, which Deonandan said could be the driving “mechanism” for a devastating third wave in Canada given the extent to which they’ve already spread in recent weeks.
But he said the likelihood of a bad third wave could change with two major caveats.
“The first is: It is avoidable with sufficient public health response and precautionary action, but our history shows us that most governments are unwilling to do the hard public health response, and most populations are unwilling to tolerate that level of action,” he said.
“The second caveat is of course vaccination.”
A nurse prepares doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine at a clinic at St. Michael’s Hospital in Toronto on Dec. 22. Experts say we may not be able to vaccinate enough of the population fast enough in Canada to adequately slow the spread of variants in time before they take over. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)
But the catch is we may not be able to vaccinate enough of the population fast enough in Canada to adequately slow the spread of variants in time before they take over.
“It’s a race against time. We want to get the vaccines out there now, before variants get in,” said Dr. Anna Banerji, a physician and infectious disease specialist at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health.
“I really believe that we can get on top of this if we get people vaccinated and then make modifications to the vaccines as we need to.”
WATCH | How vaccines can keep up with coronavirus variants:
New coronavirus variants won’t necessarily mean new vaccines or vaccine boosters are needed. And if adjustments are needed, they would take less time to develop than the original vaccines. 2:01
Banerji said even if Canada has a third wave, it likely won’t be as bad as previous waves because she feels Canadians have learned tough lessons in the pandemic — such as in December, when people gathered over the holidays and cases skyrocketed.
“People see that our individual actions have an impact on the outcome, and so I think while people may feel disempowered, they’re realizing that their behaviour really does count,” she said.
“Once we get the vaccines out, things will change and we’ll start opening things up. So I’m still optimistic for the future, even if there’s a lot of fear out there.”
How bad could a 3rd wave be in Canada?
Deonandan said that while Canada may not be able to completely “vaccinate our way out of a third wave,” it could look completely different than waves we’ve seen in the past.
“What might happen is that our third wave is very high in cases but not as high in deaths, because we have done a pretty good job in vaccinating our long-term care centres if nothing else, and that’s where a large proportion of our deaths come from,” he said.
“But hospitalizations might be a different matter.”
Dr. Sumon Chakrabarti, an infectious disease specialist at Trillium Health Partners in Mississauga, Ont., said once those at highest risk are vaccinated, including seniors living in the community and in long-term care, hospitalizations will likely decrease.
“But people are going to worry if we open up, we’re just going to get tons of cases,” he said. “Yes — but they’re not going to be severe.”
Chakrabarti said if Canada sees a smaller third wave, or “wavelet,” the health-care system might be able to “absorb” the impact of COVID-19 better than previous waves and avoid becoming completely overwhelmed.
A nurse tends to a patient suspected of having COVID-19 in the ICU of a Toronto hospital in May. Infectious disease specialist Dr. Sumon Chakrabarti says if Canada sees a smaller third wave, or ‘wavelet,’ the health-care system might be able to ‘absorb’ the impact of COVID-19 better than previous waves. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)
South Africa recently saw a notable decline in COVID-19 cases despite the variant first identified there driving a spike in transmission, which could bode well for other countries hoping to control that variant from spreading.
But experts caution that a decline in cases could be short lived, as evidenced by countries hit hard by B117, such as Portugal, Spain, Ireland and the U.K., that later saw an even greater spike in cases driven by the variant.
“We know how to prevent this from happening. We have the tools that work, we know how to do this, we can prevent a third wave,” he said.
“There’s no reason to have a third wave. There’s no reason to have another lockdown. This is not related to the virus, and we have enough information about how this virus is transmitted. This is truly based on policy.”
Deonandan said while he agrees that a third wave could be prevented, he’s all but convinced Canada is destined to face one because of a lack of political will from parts of the country that are already pushing to reopen.
“It’s highly likely. I think we could do heroic things to avoid it, but we won’t,” he said.
“But what is uncertain is what the hospitalization and death toll of a third wave will be — it might not be as severe.”
EDMONTON – Ontario country artist Jade Eagleson has won album of the year at the 2024 Canadian Country Music Association Awards in Edmonton.
The singer from Bailieboro, Ont., was up for six awards alongside Alberta’s MacKenzie Porter.
Eagleson took home album of the year for “Do It Anyway” and says he’s thankful to his wife and management team for helping him reach the level he’s at.
The James Barker Band from Woodville, Ont., also won fans’ choice and group of the year at the award show, held in Edmonton.
During their acceptance speech, frontman Barker hinted at new music and a possible tour in 2025.
Another Ontario crooner, Josh Ross, has taken home a trio of awards, receiving entertainer of the year, male artist of the year and single of the year.
He says he and his band play roughly 150 shows every year and are never home, but says taking home entertainer of the year makes the hard work worth it.
Porter took home female artist of the year, ending the five-year streak of Tenille Townes being awarded the coveted hardware.
Porter had been nominated seven times previously for the award in the past decade but hadn’t won until tonight.
The artist from Medicine Hat, Alta., says it takes a lot of hard work and hustle to succeed as a female in the country music industry and gave a shout out to her fellow singers and her newborn daughter.
Joining the two artists in the winners’ circle was Ontario singer-songwriter Owen Riegling, who won for breakthrough artist of the year.
The show began with American artist and co-host Thomas Rhett being dubbed an honorary Canadian by Edmonton Oilers players Corey Perry and Leon Draisaitl.
Rhett donned an Oilers jersey that was gifted to him by the pair.
The return of k.d. lang and the Reclines was expected to be a highlight of the show.
The appearance will mark the first time the Alberta songstress has teamed up with the band in 35 years and is tied to lang’s induction into the Canadian Country Music Hall of Fame.
The awards show is back in Alberta’s capital for the first time since 2014. It was held in Hamilton last year and in Calgary in 2022.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.
VANDERHOOF, B.C. – British Columbia Conservatives are promising changes they say will bring more stability to the province’s struggling forest industry.
Leader John Rustad announced his plan for the sector a week before the official launch of the provincial election campaign, saying a Conservative government would do away with stumpage fees paid when timber is harvested and instead put a tax on the final products that are produced.
Rustad said Saturday that under a provincial Conservative government, a small fee may be charged upfront, but the bulk would come at the end of the process, depending on what type of product is created.
He also promised to review how wildfires are managed, as well as streamline the permit process and review what he calls the province’s “uncompetitive cost structure.”
“British Columbia is by far the highest cost producers of any jurisdiction in North America. We need to be able to drive down those costs, so that our forest sector can actually be able to do the reinvestment, to be able to create the jobs and make sure that they’re still there to be able to support our communities,” he said.
The governing New Democrats meanwhile, say eliminating stumpage fees would inflame the softwood lumber dispute with the United States and hurt forestry workers.
In a statement issued by the NDP, Andrew Mercier, the party’s candidate in Langley-Willowbrook, said Rustad failed to support the industry when he was in government under the former BC Liberals.
“Not only will Rustad’s old thinking and recycled ideas fail to deliver, his proposal to eliminate stumpage would inflame the softwood lumber dispute — punishing forestry workers and communities,” Mercier said, accusing Rustad of ignoring the complexity of the challenges facing the industry.
The softwood lumber dispute between the U.S. and Canada stretches back decades. In August, the U.S. Department of Commerce nearly doubled duties on softwood lumber.
International Trade Minister Mary Ng has said Canada has taken steps to launch two legal challenges under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.
Rustad said a provincial Conservative government would push hard to get a deal with the United States over the ongoing dispute “whether it’s with the rest of Canada or by itself.”
He said his party’s proposed changes are in the name of bringing “stability” and “hope” to the industry that has seen multiple closures of mills in rural communities over the last several years.
Most recently, Canfor Corp. decided to shutter two northern British Columbia sawmills earlier this month, leaving hundreds of workers unemployed by the end of the year.
According to the United Steelworkers union, Canfor has closed 10 mills in the province since November 2011, including nine in northern B.C.
Jeff Bromley, chair of the United Steelworkers wood council, said Saturday the idea of changes in favour of taxing the final product has been floated in the past.
He said the finer details of the Conservative plan will be important, but that the system needs to be improved and “new ideas are certainly something I’d be willing to entertain.”
“Something needs to happen, or the industry is just going to bleed and wither away and be a shadow of its former self,” Bromley said.
“Politics aside, if (Rustad) can come up with a policy that enables my members to work, then I would be supportive of that. But then I’m supportive of any government that would come up with policies and fibre for our mills to run. Period.”
When Canfor announced its latest closures, Forests Minister Bruce Ralston said the sector was a “foundational part” of the province and the current NDP government would work to support both local jobs and wood manufacturing operations.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024
SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) — The San Francisco 49ers placed All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey on injured reserve because of his lingering calf and Achilles tendon injuries.
The move made Saturday means McCaffrey will miss at least four more games after already sitting out the season opener. He is eligible to return for a Thursday night game in Seattle on Oct. 10.
McCaffrey got hurt early in training camp and missed four weeks of practice before returning to the field on a limited basis last week. He was a late scratch for the opener on Monday night against the Jets and now is sidelined again after experiencing pain following practice on Thursday.
McCaffrey led the NFL last season with 2,023 yards from scrimmage and was tied for the league lead with 21 touchdowns, winning AP Offensive Player of the Year.
The Niners made up for McCaffrey’s absence thanks to a strong performance from backup Jordan Mason, who had 28 carries for 147 yards and a touchdown in San Francisco’s 32-19 victory over the New York Jets. Mason is set to start again Sunday at Minnesota.
After missing 23 games because of injuries in his final two full seasons with Carolina, McCaffrey had been healthy the past two seasons.
He missed only one game combined in 2022-23 — a meaningless Week 18 game last season for San Francisco when he had a sore calf. His 798 combined touches from scrimmage in the regular season and playoffs were the third most for any player in a two-year span in the past 10 years.
Now San Francisco will likely rely heavily on Mason, a former undrafted free agent out of Georgia Tech who had 83 carries his first two seasons. He had at least 10 touches just twice before the season opener, when his 28 carries were the most by a 49ers player in a regular-season game since Frank Gore had 31 against Seattle on Oct. 30, 2011.
The Niners also have fourth-round rookie Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor Jr. on the active roster. Guerendo played three offensive snaps with no touches in the opener. Taylor had 65 carries for Green Bay from 2021-23.
San Francisco also elevated safety Tracy Walker III from the practice squad for Sunday’s game against Minnesota.
