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What a Toronto-area byelection could tell us about federal politic

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On Dec. 12, voters in the federal riding of Mississauga-Lakeshore will go to the polls in a byelection called by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last month. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) riding has been without representation since last spring when three-term Liberal MP Sven Spengemann suddenly resigned to accept a role with the United Nations.

Mississauga-Lakeshore will be ground zero in the next federal election. It’s precisely the sort of suburban, diverse and middle-class riding the Conservatives must win if they’re to dislodge Trudeau’s Liberals after nearly a decade in power. By the same token, the Liberals must win ridings like this one across the GTA if they’re to secure a fourth consecutive mandate.

The stakes could not be higher in what’s been a surprisingly sleepy byelection campaign that has failed to garner national attention.

That’s because the results in Mississauga-Lakeshore on Monday evening could signal what’s to come on the federal political scene as the country looks ahead to an election that could be triggered at any point over the next three years. Which party prevails in this critical swing riding, and by what margin, will be instructive for party strategists as they plot a path forward for their respective parties in yet another precarious minority Parliament.

Byelection results can have little to no impact on national political trends, or they can foreshadow seismic shifts among the electorate. An unexpected byelection result can be illustrative of broader political sentiments across the country — attitudes that even mainstream media may not be attuned to.

There are dozens of byelection results over the decades that foretold nascent mindsets emerging on the ground. Take, for example, the byelection results from another “bellwether” GTA riding from almost a decade ago. In 2014, Whitby-Oshawa suddenly found itself with no representation after the death of its MP, Jim Flaherty, the former federal minister of finance.

At the time, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives led in most public opinion polling, despite approaching a decade in power. The once-dominant Liberal Party was a shell of its former self, reduced to third-party status in the House of Commons, and rookie leader Justin Trudeau was perceived as a lightweight by much of the Canadian establishment. In fact, it was the NDP’s Thomas Mulcair as leader of the Official Opposition who was seen as Harper’s chief opponent.

But when the votes were tallied, Liberal candidate Celina Caesar-Chavannes finished a close second, surprising many observers. It was this strong local showing that foreshadowed Trudeau’s unprecedented, come-from-behind win in 2015 when Liberals swept the GTA, easily winning Whitby-Oshawa — a riding they still hold today.

Just as often, byelection results mean nothing for the winning or losing party. The reality is these hyper-local elections give voters the rare opportunity to signal their frustration with the powers-that-be without being able to defeat the government. This dynamic often leads to poor byelection results for otherwise popular governments, as voters understand the stakes are merely local.

With this in mind, what are the dynamics at play in Mississauga-Lakeshore?

Voters cast their ballots in Monday’s federal byelection. The swing riding of Mississauga-Lakeshore will be ground zero in the next federal election, writes @andrewaperez. #cdnpoli

The riding is the textbook definition of a “bellwether” riding that almost always aligns with national or provincial trends. Provincially, the riding has been held by the governing party in every election since 1995. On the federal scene, it was represented by Liberal MPs for 26 of the past 30 years but fell to the Conservatives when Stephen Harper won a majority government in 2011.

Spengemann, its former MP, won the riding by more than 3,500 votes a mere 15 months ago. While national political dynamics have shifted somewhat over the past year as a result of Pierre Poilievre’s populist-inspired rise as Conservative leader, this recent margin of victory must be encouraging for Trudeau’s inner circle.

But that’s not all Trudeau’s Liberals have going for them as Dec. 12 approaches.

Their candidate, veteran politician Charles Sousa, comes to this local fight with a significant profile. As Ontario’s former minister of finance, Sousa comes armed with gravitas and substantial government experience. He’s well-connected in the riding’s Portuguese community and would be an immediate contender for a major cabinet post. Sousa’s prospects are also aided by the fact his party remains statistically tied with the Tories in most recent public opinion polls.

Sousa might be just what Trudeau’s Liberals need as they fight back the “three-term blues” amid an intensifying affordability crisis. Policy aside, the number 1 criticism launched against this government is its poor communications and inability to empathize with the everyday struggles Canadians confront in an increasingly uncertain world.

Sousa could serve as an antidote to some of the government’s challenges. A strong communicator, he’s long been extolled for his deep radio voice. He’s also a talented political organizer that could lend an important hand to the party’s efforts across the seat-rich GTA in the next election campaign. With only Minister of Transport Omar Alghabra representing Mississauga in Trudeau’s inner circle, Ontario’s third-largest municipality could benefit from a second voice at the cabinet table.

While some observers are predicting a significant margin of victory for Sousa on Monday, the race might ultimately be tighter, mirroring the national mood. Still, expect the Liberals to prevail due to the strength of Sousa’s personal appeal and the party’s remarkably enduring brand across the GTA.

Come the morning of December 13, the questions aren’t likely to centre around which party won Mississauga-Lakeshore, but on the margin of victory and what it portends for the dynamics at play in the next general election. After winning most Toronto-area ridings by wide margins over the past three elections, a photo-finish win for the Liberals could signal they’re losing ground across the seat-rich Greater Toronto Area. In the same vein, a clear loss for the Conservatives could foreshadow future challenges for the party in a region that traditionally determines which party forms government in this country.

Andrew Perez is a Toronto-based public affairs strategist, freelance writer, and political activist and commentator. He works as a senior consultant in the Toronto office of Hill+Knowlton Strategies.

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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