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What is the Maple Leafs’ bigger concern: Defence or goaltending? – Sportsnet.ca

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After a long stretch of uneven play, a familiar question is coming from fans and media once again: What’s wrong with the Toronto Maple Leafs?

As usual, the focus has been on the Leafs’ defensive play, or lack thereof, with leads evaporating and goalies being lit up on the regular. I was asked how the Leafs have been doing defensively in February because this month they’ve posted the 29th-ranked team save percentage in the NHL at 5-on-5, so it would be logical to assume they’re giving up far too many chances.

Looking at things in a general sense, though, that hasn’t been the case.

Obviously, this doesn’t completely capture how the Leafs have performed defensively — where there are some glaring weaknesses — but they do look closer to league average than being bad at 5-on-5 in February by pure rankings. With that said, let’s see if we can’t glean a little more nuance out of their defensive numbers to see if the issue is more than just Frederik Andersen struggling.

Using the same method I used to evaluate the skills of deadline targets for goal scoring, playmaking, and defending, let’s see how much better or worse than league average the Leafs have been in various categories each month of the season.

In this instance, because we’re measuring events that occur against the Maple Leafs, negative numbers are good as they show the events are less frequent than league average. For the purposes of looking at impact on save percentage specifically, we’re going to stick to shots that hit the net in our analysis.

Breaking it down on a month-by-month basis, we can see where things have been a bit more varied over time, and where there are persistent strengths and weaknesses.

The Leafs started the season strong with one of their best months in recent years in limiting shots from the inner slot and cutting down traffic in front of their goaltenders – but they gave up slot passes more often than most teams. Overall, by limiting rush chances, one-timers, and inner slot shots, things should have been going great defensively, but Andersen struggled mightily out of the gate and the Leafs’ offence was terrible during the same period, so despite these good metrics, they got off on the wrong foot.

Andersen rebounded in November and December, but the defence in front of him struggled to limit chances against and allowed more volume from dangerous areas, more deflections, more one-timers, and more rush chances.

In January the Leafs pushed back on the inner slot area, but they were killed from the high slot and hence, the slot overall, giving up over 20 per cent more scoring chances on net than the average team. That extra focus on the inner slot also came with a more conservative approach to defending the blue line, and as a result the Leafs were ripped to shreds off the rush, giving up nearly 47 per cent more than the league average.

In February, things have shifted once more, as the Leafs have given up more inner slot chances than at any other point in the season and are also allowing more deflections on net. But they’ve drastically cut down on slot shots overall, one-timers, rush chances, cycle chances, and slot passes. Overall, February is likely their best defensive month since October, and it hasn’t come at the cost of neutering their offence, but they’re losing the net front battles.

The deflections look a little scary on that chart, and it’s never good to give up a ton of those, but I do think the sample size is so small that there’s a lot of randomness involved in any single month. There appears to be a heavy correlation between deflections and inner slot shots though, so it is an area in which the Leafs are struggling.

There’s still no way I would call the Maple Leafs a strong defensive team, but at 5-on-5 I see more positive movement in February than negative. They’re just not getting the goaltending every team needs to win consistently.

The biggest positive to my eye is that the Leafs’ most consistently bad area has improved to league average levels. All season long Toronto has given up about 10 per cent more chances off the cycle than the average team, until February when they gave up about 0.5 per cent less. Cutting down on slot passes and one-timers should make a huge difference for goaltenders, even if it hasn’t been the case so far with the Leafs.

Another point I’ve seen made recently is that the Leafs are terrible while shorthanded, and their 26th-ranked penalty kill percentage at just 76.5 per cent would lend a lot of credence to that. But are the skaters the problem, or something else?

The Leafs give up more one-timers than the average team while down a man, and that likely coincides with giving up more East-West passes by forwards below the tops of the faceoff circles. But overall, they protect the slot very well and have been flat out incredible at fending off opposing forechecks.

Despite the Leafs’ inconsistent defence at 5-on-5, the penalty kill hasn’t been a problem for the skaters. They’ve been doing their jobs at an above average level even if they’re lacking natural centres to start the shifts off. This is on the goalies as well.

Unless Andersen is able to recapture the form he’s expected to have very quickly, we might see a bit more Jack Campbell, who has been very good since joining the Leafs.

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Canada’s Marina Stakusic falls in Guadalajara Open quarterfinals

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GUADALAJARA, Mexico – Canada’s Marina Stakusic fell 6-4, 6-3 to Poland’s Magdalena Frech in the quarterfinals of the Guadalajara Open tennis tournament on Friday.

The 19-year-old from Mississauga, Ont., won 61 per cent of her first-serve points and broke on just one of her six opportunities.

Stakusic had upset top-seeded Jelena Ostapenko of Latvia 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 (0) on Thursday night to advance.

In the opening round, Stakusic defeated Slovakia’s Anna Karolína Schmiedlová 6-2, 6-4 on Tuesday.

The fifth-seeded Frech won 62 per cent of her first-serve points and converted on three of her nine break point opportunities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Kirk’s walk-off single in 11th inning lifts Blue Jays past Cardinals 4-3

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TORONTO – Alejandro Kirk’s long single with the bases loaded provided the Toronto Blue Jays with a walk-off 4-3 win in the 11th inning of their series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday.

With the Cardinals outfield in, Kirk drove a shot off the base of the left-field wall to give the Blue Jays (70-78) their fourth win in 11 outings and halt the Cardinals’ (74-73) two-game win streak before 30,380 at Rogers Centre.

Kirk enjoyed a two-hit, two-RBI outing.

Erik Swanson (2-2) pitched a perfect 11th inning for the win, while Cardinals reliever Ryan Fernandez (1-5) took the loss.

Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman enjoyed a seven-inning, 104-pitch outing. He surrendered his two runs on nine hits and two walks and fanned only two Cardinals.

He gave way to reliever Genesis Cabrera, who gave up a one-out homer to Thomas Saggese, his first in 2024, that tied the game in the eighth.

The Cardinals started swiftly with four straight singles to open the game. But they exited the first inning with only two runs on an RBI single to centre from Nolan Arendao and a fielder’s choice from Saggese.

Gausman required 28 pitches to escape the first inning but settled down to allow his teammates to snatch the lead in the fourth.

He also deftly pitched out of threats from the visitors in the fifth, sixth and seventh thanks to some solid defence, including Will Wagner’s diving stop, which led to a double play to end the fifth inning.

George Springer led off with a walk and stole second base. He advanced to third on Nathan Lukes’s single and scored when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. knocked in his 95th run with a double off the left-field wall.

Lukes scored on a sacrifice fly to left field from Spencer Horwitz. Guerrero touched home on Kirk’s two-out single to right.

In the ninth, Guerrero made a critical diving catch on an Arenado grounder to throw out the Cardinals’ infielder, with reliever Tommy Nance covering first. The defensive gem ended the inning with a runner on second base.

St. Louis starter Erick Fedde faced the minimum night batters in the first three innings thanks to a pair of double plays. He lasted five innings, giving up three runs on six hits and a walk with three strikeouts.

ON DECK

Toronto ace Jose Berrios (15-9) will start the second of the three-game series on Saturday. He has a six-game win streak.

The Cardinals will counter with righty Kyle Gibson (8-6).

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Stampeders return to Maier at QB eyeing chance to get on track against Alouettes

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CALGARY – Mired in their first four-game losing skid in 20 years, the Calgary Stampeders are going back to Jake Maier at quarterback on Saturday after he was benched for a game.

It won’t be an easy assignment.

Visiting McMahon Stadium are the Eastern Conference-leading Montreal Alouettes (10-2) who own the CFL’s best record. The Stampeders (4-8) have fallen to last in the Western Conference.

“Six games is plenty of time, but also it is just six games,” said Maier. “We’ve got to be able to get on the right track.”

Calgary is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2004.

“I do still believe in this team,” said Stampeders’ head coach and general manager Dave Dickenson. “I want to see improvement, though. I want to see guys on a weekly basis elevating their game, and we haven’t been doing that.”

Maier is one of the guys under the microscope. Two weeks ago, the second-year starter threw four interceptions in a 35-20 home loss to the Edmonton Elks.

After his replacement, rookie Logan Bonner, threw five picks in last week’s 37-16 loss to the Elks in Edmonton, the football is back in Maier’s hands.

“Any time you fail or something doesn’t go your way in life, does it stink in the moment? Yeah. But then the days go on and you learn things about yourself and you learn how to prepare a little bit better,” said Maier. “It makes you mentally tougher.”

Dickenson wants to see his quarterback making better decisions with the football.

“Things are going to happen, interceptions will happen, but try to take calculated risks, rather than just putting the ball up there and hoping that we catch it,” said Dickenson.

A former quarterback himself, he knows the importance of that vital position.

“You cannot win without good quarterback play,” Dickenson said. “You’ve got to be able to make some plays — off-schedule plays, move-around plays, plays that break down, plays that aren’t designed perfectly, but somehow you found the right guy, and then those big throws where you’re taking that hit.”

But it’s going to take a team effort, and that includes the club’s receiving corp.

“We always have to band together because we need everything to go right for our receivers to get the ball,” said Nik Lewis, the Stampeders’ receivers coach. “The running back has to pick up the blitz, the o-line has to block, the quarterback has to make the right reads, and then give us a catchable ball.”

Lewis brings a unique perspective to this season’s frustrations as he was a 22-year-old rookie in Calgary in 2004 when the Stamps went 4-14 under coach Matt Dunigan. They turned it around the next season and haven’t missed the playoffs since.”

“Thinking back and just looking at it, there’s just got to be an ultimate belief that you can get it done. Look at Montreal, they were 6-7 last year and they’ve gone 18-2 since then,” said Lewis.

Montreal is also looking to rebound from a 37-23 loss to the B.C. Lions last week. But for head coach Jason Maas, he says his team’s mindset doesn’t change, regardless of what happened the previous week.

“Last year when we went through a four-game losing streak, you couldn’t tell if we were on a four-game winning streak or a four-game losing streak by the way the guys were in the building, the way we prepared, the type of work ethic we have,” said Maas. “All our standards are set, so that’s all we focus on.”

While they may have already clinched a playoff spot, Alouettes’ quarterback Cody Fajardo says this closing stretch remains critical because they want to finish the season strong, just like last year when they won their final five regular-season games before ultimately winning the Grey Cup.

“It doesn’t matter about what you do at the beginning of the year,” said Fajardo. “All that matters is how you end the year and how well you’re playing going into the playoffs so that’s what these games are about.”

The Alouettes’ are kicking off a three-game road stretch, one Fajardo looks forward to.

“You understand what kind of team you have when you play on the road because it’s us versus the world mentality and you can feel everybody against you,” said Fajardo. “Plus, I always tend to find more joy in silencing thousands of people than bringing thousands of people to their feet.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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