What is the risk of a war between Russia and Ukraine? | Canada News Media
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What is the risk of a war between Russia and Ukraine?

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Russian troop movements near Ukraine have drawn concern from Kyiv and the United States that it might be considering attacking its neighbour. Here is a look at some of the questions that raises.

WHAT ARE THE TWO SIDES SAYING ABOUT THE RISK OF CONFLICT?

Russia denies threatening anyone and says it can deploy its troops on its own territory as it pleases. It has accused Ukraine and NATO of whipping up tensions and suggested Kyiv might be preparing to try to seize back two eastern regions controlled by pro-Russian separatists since 2014. Russia’s foreign spy agency this week compared the situation with the build-up to a 2008 war in which Russia’s forces crushed those of neighbouring Georgia.

Ukraine denies planning any such offensive and says Russia has more than 92,000 troops massed near its borders for a possible attack.

HOW LIKELY IS A RUSSIAN INVASION?

Reuters spoke to more than a dozen sources, including Western intelligence officials and Russians familiar with Kremlin thinking, and nearly all agreed that an invasion is unlikely to be imminent. A more plausible scenario, they said, was that President Vladimir Putin is using the credible threat of military force to signal that Russia is serious about defending its “red lines” on Ukraine. It has stated numerous times in recent weeks that it is not prepared to accept the supply of NATO weapons to Ukraine or any NATO military presence there, let alone the prospect of eventual Ukrainian membership of the alliance. Putin, these sources added, is adept at escalating and de-escalating crises – as he did in the spring, when more than 100,000 Russian troops gathered near Ukraine’s border and subsequently pulled back. In this way, he is keeping Russia’s opponents guessing about his intentions and reminding the West that Russia is a force to be reckoned with.

IF IT DID COME TO WAR, WHAT MIGHT THAT LOOK LIKE?

Russia’s armed forces have 900,000 active personnel compared with 209,000 for Ukraine, an advantage of more than four to one, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). But Samir Puri, senior fellow in hybrid warfare at the IISS, said the real advantage for Russia was that it already has proxies fighting in the separatist war in eastern Ukraine, giving it the option to link up with them and extend the area already under their control. Were it to go for a broader invasion, he said, it could contemplate attacking from the north (from Russia and its ally Belarus), from the east or from the south (via Crimea, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014), with a naval assault on the cities of Odessa and Mariupol.

HOW PREPARED IS UKRAINE TO DEFEND ITSELF?

Ukraine is significantly stronger militarily than in 2014, when it lost Crimea to Russia without a real fight. It has advanced anti-tank missiles supplied by Washington, and could draw on U.S. intelligence support. But it would still face an overwhelming adversary – the Russian advantage in battle tanks, for example, is more than three to one.

“For Ukraine, the issue would be … to resist as much as they can, pray for assistance from the West, and ultimately fight back,” said Mathieu Boulegue, a research fellow at London’s Chatham House think-tank. “If Russia invades in full, the question for Kyiv will be to mount counter-insurrection-style warfare to make the cost of invasion tremendous for Russia.”

WHAT ELSE MIGHT DETER MOSCOW?

The West imposed sanctions on Russia after the seizure of Crimea and could add painful new measures, such as preventing it from pumping Russian gas through the newly built Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany. Putin would risk a complete rupture of relations with the West if he invaded. It is unclear how far NATO might come to the defence of Ukraine, something that would be fraught with risk for all sides. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but doing nothing would leave the alliance looking irrelevant.

“This is the brinkmanship game that is playing out. Both in NATO in Brussels and in Moscow there will be calculations around where the escalatory steps could lead. If NATO was to deploy to fight … the Russians would see this as an unbelievable escalation,” said Puri.

“Whether (Ukraine) ends up as a battleground I think is unlikely – but really that’s the issue that Russia and NATO are fencing around at the moment in Ukraine.”

 

(Reporting by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Alison Williams)

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Florida State asks judge to rule on parts of suit against ACC, hoping for resolution without trial

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Florida State has asked a judge to decide key parts of its lawsuit against the Atlantic Coast Conference without a trial, hoping for a quicker resolution and path to a possible exit from the league.

Florida State requested a partial summary judgment from Circuit Judge John Cooper in a 574-page document filed earlier this week in Leon County, the Tallahassee-based school’s home court.

Florida State sued the ACC in December, challenging the validity of a contract that binds member schools to the conference and each other through media rights and claiming the league’s exit fees and penalties for withdrawal are exorbitant and unfair.

In its original compliant, Florida State said it would cost the school more than half a billion dollars to break the grant of rights and leave the ACC.

“The recently-produced 2016 ESPN agreements expose that the ACC has no rights to FSU home games played after it leaves the conference,” Florida State said in the filing.

Florida State is asking a judge to rule on the exit fees and for a summary judgment on its breach of contract claim, which says the conference broke its bylaws when it sued the school without first getting a majority vote from the entire league membership.

The case is one of four active right now involving the ACC and one of its members.

The ACC has sued Florida State in North Carolina, claiming the school is breaching a contract that it has signed twice in the last decade simply by challenging it.

The judge in Florida has already denied the ACC’s motion to dismiss or pause that case because the conference filed first in North Carolina. The conference appealed the Florida decision in a hearing earlier this week.

Clemson is also suing the ACC in South Carolina, trying to find an affordable potential exit, and the conference has countersued that school in North Carolina, too.

Florida State and the ACC completed court-mandated mediation last month without resolution.

The dispute is tied to the ACC’s long-term deal with ESPN, which runs through 2036, and leaves those schools lagging well behind competitors in the Southeastern Conference and Big Ten when it comes to conference-payout revenue.

Florida State has said the athletic department is in danger of falling behind by as much as $40 million annually by being in the ACC.

“Postponing the resolution of this question only compounds the expense and travesty,” the school said in the latest filing.

The ACC has implemented a bonus system called a success initiative that will reward schools for accomplishments on the field and court, but Florida State and Clemson are looking for more as two of the conference’s highest-profile brands and most successful football programs.

The ACC evenly distributes revenue from its broadcast deal, though new members California, Stanford and SMU receive a reduced and no distribution. That money is used to fund the pool for the success initiative.

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Australia’s Michael Matthews earns third win at Quebec cycling GP

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QUEBEC – Australian road cyclist Michael Matthews raced to victory at the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec on Friday.

Matthews earned a record third career victory in Quebec City. He was previously tied with Slovakia’s Peter Sagan with two wins.

The Jayco-AlUla rider won the fastest edition of the Quebec race on the UCI World Tour calendar.

Matthews, who claimed titles in 2018 and 2019, edged out Eritrea’s Biniam Girmay and France’s Rudy Molard in a thrilling sprint.

Tour de France winner Tadej Pogacar, the heavy favourite, was unable to follow through with his attack launched just over two kilometres from the finish line. He finished in seventh place.

Pogacar will look to redeem himself at the Montreal cycling Grand Prix on Sunday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Whitecaps loan Herdman to CPL’s Cavalry, sign two reserve players to first-team deals

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VANCOUVER – The Vancouver Whitecaps have loaned midfielder Jay Herdman to Cavalry FC of the Canadian Premier League and rewarded two Whitecaps FC 2 players with MLS contracts.

Midfielder Jeevan Badwal signed as a homegrown player through 2027, with options for 2028 and 2029, while forward Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau signed an MLS contract through 2025, with club options for 2026 and 2027.

Both have been playing for the Whitecaps’ MLS Next Pro team along with the 20-year-old Herdman, the son of Toronto FC coach John Herdman.

The moves were made before Friday’s MLS and CPL roster freeze.

Born in New Zealand while his father was working for the New Zealand Football Federation, Jay Herdman was also part of the New Zealand soccer team at the Paris Olympics with three appearances including two starts. Herdman’s loan deal runs through the end of the CPL season.

“Jay is an important signing for us, who will provide another attacking option for the run-in,” Cavalry coach and GM Tommy Wheeldon Jr. said in a statement. “He’s a player that we’ve been tracking since we played against Whitecaps in pre-season and he has very good quality, with terrific energy and the ability to contribute to goals.

“With the recent injury to Mael Henry, Jay’s positional profile and age helps us with on-field options and minutes that count towards the league’s required 2,000 U-21 domestic minutes during the regular season.”

Badwal, an 18-year-old from suburban Surrey, is the 26th academy player to sign an MLS contract with the Whitecaps.

“Having joined our academy in 2019, Jeevan continues to progress through our club and takes every challenge in stride,” Whitecaps FC sporting director Axel Schuster said in a statement. “He is comfortable on the ball, positionally sound, and does the simple things very well. We are excited for Jeevan to make the next step in his young career.”

Badwal has made 19 appearances with Whitecaps 2 this season, scoring two goals and adding three assists. A Canadian youth international, he started all three matches for Canada at the 2023 FIFA U-17 World Cup

Badwal made his first-team debut off the bench in the first leg of the Canadian Championship semifinal against Pacific FC.

Chateau was originally selected 74th overall by the Whitecaps in the 2024 MLS SuperDraft after spending two years at St. John’s University.

The 22-year-old from Ottawa signed an MLS NEXT Pro contract with Whitecaps FC 2 in March. He leads Whitecaps FC 2 in goal-scoring this season with eight goals across 21 appearances (including eight starts).

“Nicolas leads MLS NEXT Pro in shots on target, has a very strong work rate and willpower. We are looking forward to seeing his growth as he builds on his young professional career,” said Schuster.

Chateau made his first-team debut as a second-half substitute at CF Montreal on July 6.

Herdman, who joined the Whitecaps academy as a 13-year-old, has made 19 appearances for Whitecaps FC 2 in 2024, scoring six goals and adding three assists. He made his MLS debut in April as a second-half substitute in a 2-0 victory at the Seattle Sounders.

Internationally, Herdman has represented New Zealand 29 times across the U-19, U-20, and U-23 sides. He was part of New Zealand’s squad at the 2023 FIFA U-20 World Cup, starting three matches at the tournament and scoring against Uzbekistan.

The Whitecaps host San Jose on Saturday while Cavalry entertains Atletico Ottawa on Sunday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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