For Alberta politicians, the immediate question in the wake of Biden’s victory is obvious: What’s the best route forward to work with the incoming U.S. administration?
But deeper than that, political scientists say there are lessons to be learned in Alberta — namely, parallels between the election results and new data that suggests that more than half of Albertans believe the province’s best days are behind it.
Jared Wesley, a political scientist at the University of Alberta, told CBC’s West of Centre podcast that many of his colleagues are comparing the politics of Alberta to the battleground states in the U.S. Rust Belt, where many workers have seen their livelihoods challenged.
Listen to this week’s full episode of West of Centre here:
West of Centre42:59Finding common ground
“[With] the broader economy transitioning, how did they behave in this particular election?” Wesley said. “What types of appeals worked for them?”
Those kinds of lessons — which, in Wesley’s view, may see Alberta shift from the “Texas of the north to the Wisconsin or the Pennsylvania of the north” — can help to contextualize the province’s shifting political reality in a time of downturn.
The ‘Rust Belt’ of the north
The so-called Rust Belt includes U.S. swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — all three of which were crucial to Biden’s electoral college victory, and all three of which are typified by industrial decline and population loss.
In areas where economic prospects decline, there is a corresponding perceived loss of status in society, Wesley said — a strong sense that one’s “best days” are behind them.
“Where people’s economic livelihoods were being threatened, their own political identities started to shift as a result,” he said.
“And that can make for some pretty turbulent or unpredictable behaviour.”
Such data is explored in research briefs from Common Ground, a research initiative at the University of Alberta.
Some massive shuttered factories in Pennsylvania have been left to decay. (Alex Shprintsen/CBC)
The most surprising part of that research, Wesley previously told CBC News, was that more than half of Albertans feel as though the province’s best days are behind it.
Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University, told West of Centre that there’s a form of pessimism in the province he hasn’t seen before — even on the unpredictable roller-coaster of oil prices.
“This seems different. And it seemed different for a number of years, that, you know, the glory days are not going to come back,” Bratt said. “It doesn’t mean that things aren’t going to get better.
“But the days of, you know, 2007 and 2013, I don’t think most people believe it will come back.”
Responding to malaise
Though the 2020 election didn’t turn out exactly the way some pollsters thought it might, Biden did carry the Rust Belt — states that rejected Hillary Clinton in 2016 and instead embraced Donald Trump and his promise to resurrect the struggling coal and steel industries.
Wesley said the broader question for Alberta politicians in the years ahead will be to decide which approach to take when it comes to the province’s own beleaguered oil and gas industry.
“You can double down like Trump did, and promise people that the jobs are coming back, and then face the music when they don’t,” he said.
‘Trump digs coal’ was a popular slogan on signs at pro-Trump rallies when the Republican candidate campaigned in Pennsylvania in 2016. (Steve Helber/Associated Press)
The alternative, Wesley said, would be to strike a chord much like Biden did in the final debate — telling Pennsylvania voters in particular that the oil and gas industry would not be around forever, and transition needed to be considered.
“I think our research, the combination of our survey research and our focus group research, suggests that Albertans cognitively understand this in a way I’m not sure people in the Rust Belt and coal country got,” Wesley said.
“So I think they understand it. Whether they’re ready for politicians to have a frank conversation with them about it remains to be seen.”
Wesley said there was a sense among those surveyed that there was nothing that the provincial government could do, despite its ongoing efforts to pursue proposals that emerged from its so-called “fair deal” panel.
“[Those surveyed feel] it’s not really Ottawa that’s holding it back. There’s something bigger going on here,” Wesley said. “They don’t use the term peak oil, but they talk about [global] forces and environmentalism.
“And they don’t speak as if those forces are wrong. They just feel like those forces are changing their world.”
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney announced the so-called ‘fair deal’ panel on Nov. 9, 2019, as a stated effort to claw back political autonomy from Ottawa. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)
Through his conversations and research with Common Ground, Wesley said he found that those affected by changes in industry didn’t especially feel inclined to embrace old grievances.
“I’m not sure whether people in those communities are going to appreciate more and more tax dollars, more and more investment, and more than that, more and more attention being paid on trying to prop up old-line jobs,” he said.
“They want to start this transition, and they want to rebuild their communities.”
Common Ground’s research found that a majority of Albertans oppose replacing the RCMP with a provincial police force, exiting the Canadian Pension plan and replacing the Canada Revenue Agency — all considerations of the “fair deal” panel.
Despite that, Bratt said there was still positivity surrounding exploring these issues in the UCP government.
“There was a series of motions at the last AGM just a couple of weeks ago,” Bratt said. “And it wasn’t quite unanimous, but it was pretty darn high.
“So the most active members of the party, the government, really believe in these things. But Albertans don’t.”
Seeking paths forward
It’s an open question whether Premier Jason Kenney pivots on the measures being proposed, considering past and future movement from Ottawa on issues like orphan wells and the fiscal stabilization program.
But as the U.S. election season draws to a close, Wesley said its conclusion can teach Alberta politicians new lessons — especially as the so-called “Alberta Advantage” as a symbol of Albertan exceptionalism begins to lose its lustre.
“People [are starting] to feel like Alberta is falling behind the rest of the world and the rest of Canada and the United States,” he said.
That’s similar to the mythic “American Dream,” Wesley said, a sort of unifying common myth, challenged in many parts of the country for reasons like the economic transition.
“So the big challenge for politicians in that kind of environment, in Canada and United States, is to try to build that common ground,” he said. “That common set of values that makes up their political culture.”
Listen to the complete West of Centre podcast series right here.
FREDERICTON – A look at Blaine Higgs, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick.
Born: March 1, 1954.
Early years: The son of a customs officer, he grew up in Forest City, N.B., near the Canada-U.S. border.
Education: Graduated from the University of New Brunswick with a degree in mechanical engineering in 1977.
Family: Married his high-school sweetheart, Marcia, and settled in Saint John, N.B., where they had four daughters: Lindsey, Laura, Sarah and Rachel.
Before politics: Hired by Irving Oil a week after he graduated from university and was eventually promoted to director of distribution. Worked for 33 years at the company.
Politics: Elected to the legislature in 2010 and later served as finance minister under former Progressive Conservative Premier David Alward. Elected Tory leader in 2016 and has been premier since 2018.
Quote: “I’ve always felt parents should play the main role in raising children. No one is denying gender diversity is real. But we need to figure out how to manage it.” — Blaine Higgs in a year-end interview in 2023, explaining changes to school policies about gender identity.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
GATINEAU, Que. – Treasury Board President Anita Anand will take on the additional role of transport minister this afternoon, after Pablo Rodriguez resigned from cabinet to run for the Quebec Liberal leadership.
A government source who was not authorized to speak publicly says Anand will be sworn in at a small ceremony at Rideau Hall.
Public Services and Procurement Minister Jean-Yves Duclos will become the government’s new Quebec lieutenant, but he is not expected to be at the ceremony because that is not an official role in cabinet.
Rodriguez announced this morning that he’s leaving cabinet and the federal Liberal caucus and will sit as an Independent member of Parliament until January.
That’s when the Quebec Liberal leadership race is set to officially begin.
Rodriguez says sitting as an Independent will allow him to focus on his own vision, but he plans to vote with the Liberals on a non-confidence motion next week.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
FREDERICTON – New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs has called an election for Oct. 21, signalling the beginning of a 33-day campaign expected to focus on pocketbook issues and the government’s provocative approach to gender identity policies.
The 70-year-old Progressive Conservative leader, who is seeking a third term in office, has attracted national attention by requiring teachers to get parental consent before they can use the preferred names and pronouns of young students.
More recently, however, the former Irving Oil executive has tried to win over inflation-weary voters by promising to lower the provincial harmonized sales tax by two percentage points to 13 per cent if re-elected.
At dissolution, the Conservatives held 25 seats in the 49-seat legislature. The Liberals held 16 seats, the Greens had three and there was one Independent and four vacancies.
J.P. Lewis, a political science professor at the University of New Brunswick, said the top three issues facing New Brunswickers are affordability, health care and education.
“Across many jurisdictions, affordability is the top concern — cost of living, housing prices, things like that,” he said.
Richard Saillant, an economist and former vice-president of Université de Moncton, said the Tories’ pledge to lower the HST represents a costly promise.
“I don’t think there’s that much room for that,” he said. “I’m not entirely clear that they can do so without producing a greater deficit.” Saillant also pointed to mounting pressures to invest more in health care, education and housing, all of which are facing increasing demands from a growing population.
Higgs’s main rivals are Liberal Leader Susan Holt and Green Party Leader David Coon. Both are focusing on economic and social issues.
Holt has promised to impose a rent cap and roll out a subsidized school food program. The Liberals also want to open at least 30 community health clinics over the next four years.
Coon has said a Green government would create an “electricity support program,” which would give families earning less than $70,000 annually about $25 per month to offset “unprecedented” rate increases.
Higgs first came to power in 2018, when the Tories formed the province’s first minority government in 100 years. In 2020, he called a snap election — the first province to go to the polls after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic — and won a majority.
Since then, several well-known cabinet ministers and caucus members have stepped down after clashing with Higgs, some of them citing what they described as an authoritarian leadership style and a focus on policies that represent a hard shift to the right side of the political spectrum.
Lewis said the Progressive Conservatives are in the “midst of reinvention.”
“It appears he’s shaping the party now, really in the mould of his world views,” Lewis said. “Even though (Progressive Conservatives) have been down in the polls, I still think that they’re very competitive.”
Meanwhile, the legislature remained divided along linguistic lines. The Tories dominate in English-speaking ridings in central and southern parts of the province, while the Liberals held most French-speaking ridings in the north.
The drama within the party began in October 2022 when the province’s outspoken education minister, Dominic Cardy, resigned from cabinet, saying he could no longer tolerate the premier’s leadership style. In his resignation letter, Cardy cited controversial plans to reform French-language education. The government eventually stepped back those plans.
A series of resignations followed last year when the Higgs government announced changes to Policy 713, which now requires students under 16 who are exploring their gender identity to get their parents’ consent before teachers can use their preferred first names or pronouns — a reversal of the previous practice.
When several Tory lawmakers voted with the opposition to call for an external review of the change, Higgs dropped dissenters from his cabinet. And a bid by some party members to trigger a leadership review went nowhere.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
