For Alberta politicians, the immediate question in the wake of Biden’s victory is obvious: What’s the best route forward to work with the incoming U.S. administration?
But deeper than that, political scientists say there are lessons to be learned in Alberta — namely, parallels between the election results and new data that suggests that more than half of Albertans believe the province’s best days are behind it.
Jared Wesley, a political scientist at the University of Alberta, told CBC’s West of Centre podcast that many of his colleagues are comparing the politics of Alberta to the battleground states in the U.S. Rust Belt, where many workers have seen their livelihoods challenged.
Listen to this week’s full episode of West of Centre here:
West of Centre42:59Finding common ground
“[With] the broader economy transitioning, how did they behave in this particular election?” Wesley said. “What types of appeals worked for them?”
Those kinds of lessons — which, in Wesley’s view, may see Alberta shift from the “Texas of the north to the Wisconsin or the Pennsylvania of the north” — can help to contextualize the province’s shifting political reality in a time of downturn.
The ‘Rust Belt’ of the north
The so-called Rust Belt includes U.S. swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — all three of which were crucial to Biden’s electoral college victory, and all three of which are typified by industrial decline and population loss.
In areas where economic prospects decline, there is a corresponding perceived loss of status in society, Wesley said — a strong sense that one’s “best days” are behind them.
“Where people’s economic livelihoods were being threatened, their own political identities started to shift as a result,” he said.
“And that can make for some pretty turbulent or unpredictable behaviour.”
Such data is explored in research briefs from Common Ground, a research initiative at the University of Alberta.
Some massive shuttered factories in Pennsylvania have been left to decay. (Alex Shprintsen/CBC)
The most surprising part of that research, Wesley previously told CBC News, was that more than half of Albertans feel as though the province’s best days are behind it.
Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University, told West of Centre that there’s a form of pessimism in the province he hasn’t seen before — even on the unpredictable roller-coaster of oil prices.
“This seems different. And it seemed different for a number of years, that, you know, the glory days are not going to come back,” Bratt said. “It doesn’t mean that things aren’t going to get better.
“But the days of, you know, 2007 and 2013, I don’t think most people believe it will come back.”
Responding to malaise
Though the 2020 election didn’t turn out exactly the way some pollsters thought it might, Biden did carry the Rust Belt — states that rejected Hillary Clinton in 2016 and instead embraced Donald Trump and his promise to resurrect the struggling coal and steel industries.
Wesley said the broader question for Alberta politicians in the years ahead will be to decide which approach to take when it comes to the province’s own beleaguered oil and gas industry.
“You can double down like Trump did, and promise people that the jobs are coming back, and then face the music when they don’t,” he said.
‘Trump digs coal’ was a popular slogan on signs at pro-Trump rallies when the Republican candidate campaigned in Pennsylvania in 2016. (Steve Helber/Associated Press)
The alternative, Wesley said, would be to strike a chord much like Biden did in the final debate — telling Pennsylvania voters in particular that the oil and gas industry would not be around forever, and transition needed to be considered.
“I think our research, the combination of our survey research and our focus group research, suggests that Albertans cognitively understand this in a way I’m not sure people in the Rust Belt and coal country got,” Wesley said.
“So I think they understand it. Whether they’re ready for politicians to have a frank conversation with them about it remains to be seen.”
Wesley said there was a sense among those surveyed that there was nothing that the provincial government could do, despite its ongoing efforts to pursue proposals that emerged from its so-called “fair deal” panel.
“[Those surveyed feel] it’s not really Ottawa that’s holding it back. There’s something bigger going on here,” Wesley said. “They don’t use the term peak oil, but they talk about [global] forces and environmentalism.
“And they don’t speak as if those forces are wrong. They just feel like those forces are changing their world.”
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney announced the so-called ‘fair deal’ panel on Nov. 9, 2019, as a stated effort to claw back political autonomy from Ottawa. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)
Through his conversations and research with Common Ground, Wesley said he found that those affected by changes in industry didn’t especially feel inclined to embrace old grievances.
“I’m not sure whether people in those communities are going to appreciate more and more tax dollars, more and more investment, and more than that, more and more attention being paid on trying to prop up old-line jobs,” he said.
“They want to start this transition, and they want to rebuild their communities.”
Common Ground’s research found that a majority of Albertans oppose replacing the RCMP with a provincial police force, exiting the Canadian Pension plan and replacing the Canada Revenue Agency — all considerations of the “fair deal” panel.
Despite that, Bratt said there was still positivity surrounding exploring these issues in the UCP government.
“There was a series of motions at the last AGM just a couple of weeks ago,” Bratt said. “And it wasn’t quite unanimous, but it was pretty darn high.
“So the most active members of the party, the government, really believe in these things. But Albertans don’t.”
Seeking paths forward
It’s an open question whether Premier Jason Kenney pivots on the measures being proposed, considering past and future movement from Ottawa on issues like orphan wells and the fiscal stabilization program.
But as the U.S. election season draws to a close, Wesley said its conclusion can teach Alberta politicians new lessons — especially as the so-called “Alberta Advantage” as a symbol of Albertan exceptionalism begins to lose its lustre.
“People [are starting] to feel like Alberta is falling behind the rest of the world and the rest of Canada and the United States,” he said.
That’s similar to the mythic “American Dream,” Wesley said, a sort of unifying common myth, challenged in many parts of the country for reasons like the economic transition.
“So the big challenge for politicians in that kind of environment, in Canada and United States, is to try to build that common ground,” he said. “That common set of values that makes up their political culture.”
Listen to the complete West of Centre podcast series right here.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
