TORONTO —
As Canadians adapt to the new reality of strict physical distancing, closures of public places and bans on gatherings, one thought looms above all: How long will this last?
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has taken to suggesting that these measures could be in place for “months,” but he and other federal officials have stayed away from offering anything more specific.
That may not be a surprise, given no politician wants to make a promise they can’t keep – and nobody can say with any certainty when COVID-19 activity in Canada will be light enough for some semblance of normal life to resume.
“Trying to predict a date … is a fool’s errand,” Erin Stumpf, an epidemiologist at McGill University in Montreal, told CTVNews.ca via telephone on Wednesday.
What is clear, though, is that there will have to be some sort of specific, measureable targets for the country to hit in order to reach that “light enough” level.
A 14-day sustained reduction in the number of new COVID-19 cases
Hospitals being able to treat all COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients “without resorting to crisis standards of care”
The ability to quickly test and diagnose everyone displaying symptoms of COVID-19
The ability to trace and monitor all contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases
Canadian public health experts say similar criteria should be used here, with lockdown-like measures only being removed once it is clear the pandemic is well within the health-care system’s ability to manage.
This is particularly important because any loosening of the public health measures can be expected to result in a significant number of new infections, as the increase in human contact leads to unsuspecting and asymptomatic carriers of the virus going into public and transmitting it to others.
“There’s going to be an expected second wave of infections when you start to lift these public health measures, because we know that there’s still going to be a significant proportion of the population that’s not immune to this infection,” Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist with Toronto’s University Health Network, told CTVNews.ca via telephone on Wednesday.
Bogoch says the sustained decrease in new cases that would help trigger a relaxing of the measures might have to be slightly longer than the two weeks recommended in the AEI report. Because the novel coronavirus’ incubation time is believed to be two weeks, public health leaders may add a few days on to increase the amount of room for error.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
Once transmission of the virus has slowed and new cases can easily be absorbed by the health-care system, the AEI report says the American response to the pandemic will be able to move into a second phase, in which some public health restrictions can be lifted.
“In Phase II, the majority of school, universities and businesses can reopen. Teleworking should continue where convenient; social gatherings should still continue to be limited to fewer than 50 people wherever possible,” the report reads.
However, these changes will likely happen gradually, allowing authorities to monitor their effect on caseloads and rethink the regulations if the number of new patients threatens to again overwhelm the health-care system. High-risk settings, including prisons and long-term care homes, will also need to be watched closely.
Public health will be the driving factor behind reopenings, but economic concerns will come into play too. Restrictions that are causing economic harm may well be lifted before those that are causing mild inconveniences to daily routines, if their effect on the virus’ spread is believed to be similar.
“Any of the things we do for fun are probably going to be toward the end of the list,” Strumpf said.
If there is a surge of new COVID-19 cases that cannot be traced back to known patients, or if there is a sustained rise in caseloads over a five-day period, the AEI report says, it would be best to revert to the current measures until the curve once again flattens. Researchers at Harvard recently suggested that this approach, with physical distancing measures being loosened and tightened as necessary, might last until 2022.
Some of this push-and-pull may be regional, with states or provinces enacting different rules based on the severity of their COVID-19 situations at any given time.
“If you do this slowly and with the appropriate supports in place, you can control the size of that expected second wave so that you don’t have to go back on lockdown again,” Bogoch said.
Even as the restrictions are gradually removed, life as recommended by the report will seem quite unusual in comparison to a pre-pandemic world. Face masks will be common, as will physical distancing, and large gatherings will be frowned upon. Those most at risk from the virus, including seniors and those with underlying health conditions, will still be asked to spend as much time as possible at home.
The report only recommends a full removal of physical distancing restrictions when a vaccine for COVID-19 is available – which is believed to be at least a year away – or once there is a widespread treatment that can negate the disease’s harshest effects.
OPEN BORDERS MAY TAKE LONGER
The COVID-19 crisis is a global one, but the responses are often much more localized.
Many countries have closed their borders to foreign travellers as the pandemic has spread, attempting to manage the situation among their own population without introducing potential complications from abroad.
But this creates a new challenge, as some countries have been able to pass the peak of their outbreaks while virus activity has only begun to ramp up elsewhere. As a result, countries may choose to keep border restrictions in place long after they have beaten back COVID-19, waiting for the rest of the world to do the same.
“We’ll likely have to be very careful there,” Bogoch said.
“I would imagine that even when policies are starting to be lifted, there will likely be significant restrictions on international travel – if it’s allowed.”
Even if borders are opened, travellers will face a double dose of risk: the chance they’ll pick up the virus while they’re away, and the chance they’ll spread it to others after they return home.
Canadian authorities seem to be preparing for these possibilities. At a press conference in Ottawa on Tuesday, Health Minister Patty Hajdu said a “global solution” will be necessary, no matter what actions Canada takes on its own.
“Viruses and bugs have a way of making their way around human populations,” she said.
“If there is one case of COVID-19, then we’re all at risk.”
VANCOUVER – Contract negotiations resume today in Vancouver in a labour dispute that has paralyzed container cargo shipping at British Columbia’s ports since Monday.
The BC Maritime Employers Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 are scheduled to meet for the next three days in mediated talks to try to break a deadlock in negotiations.
The union, which represents more than 700 longshore supervisors at ports, including Vancouver, Prince Rupert and Nanaimo, has been without a contract since March last year.
The latest talks come after employers locked out workers in response to what it said was “strike activity” by union members.
The start of the lockout was then followed by several days of no engagement between the two parties, prompting federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon to speak with leaders on both sides, asking them to restart talks.
MacKinnon had said that the talks were “progressing at an insufficient pace, indicating a concerning absence of urgency from the parties involved” — a sentiment echoed by several business groups across Canada.
In a joint letter, more than 100 organizations, including the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Business Council of Canada and associations representing industries from automotive and fertilizer to retail and mining, urged the government to do whatever it takes to end the work stoppage.
“While we acknowledge efforts to continue with mediation, parties have not been able to come to a negotiated agreement,” the letter says. “So, the federal government must take decisive action, using every tool at its disposal to resolve this dispute and limit the damage caused by this disruption.
“We simply cannot afford to once again put Canadian businesses at risk, which in turn puts Canadian livelihoods at risk.”
In the meantime, the union says it has filed a complaint to the Canada Industrial Relations Board against the employers, alleging the association threatened to pull existing conditions out of the last contract in direct contact with its members.
“The BCMEA is trying to undermine the union by attempting to turn members against its democratically elected leadership and bargaining committee — despite the fact that the BCMEA knows full well we received a 96 per cent mandate to take job action if needed,” union president Frank Morena said in a statement.
The employers have responded by calling the complaint “another meritless claim,” adding the final offer to the union that includes a 19.2 per cent wage increase over a four-year term remains on the table.
“The final offer has been on the table for over a week and represents a fair and balanced proposal for employees, and if accepted would end this dispute,” the employers’ statement says. “The offer does not require any concessions from the union.”
The union says the offer does not address the key issue of staffing requirement at the terminals as the port introduces more automation to cargo loading and unloading, which could potentially require fewer workers to operate than older systems.
The Port of Vancouver is the largest in Canada and has seen a number of labour disruptions, including two instances involving the rail and grain storage sectors earlier this year.
A 13-day strike by another group of workers at the port last year resulted in the disruption of a significant amount of shipping and trade.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
The Royal Canadian Legion says a new partnership with e-commerce giant Amazon is helping boost its veterans’ fund, and will hopefully expand its donor base in the digital world.
Since the Oct. 25 launch of its Amazon.ca storefront, the legion says it has received nearly 10,000 orders for poppies.
Online shoppers can order lapel poppies on Amazon in exchange for donations or buy items such as “We Remember” lawn signs, Remembrance Day pins and other accessories, with all proceeds going to the legion’s Poppy Trust Fund for Canadian veterans and their families.
Nujma Bond, the legion’s national spokesperson, said the organization sees this move as keeping up with modern purchasing habits.
“As the world around us evolves we have been looking at different ways to distribute poppies and to make it easier for people to access them,” she said in an interview.
“This is definitely a way to reach a wider number of Canadians of all ages. And certainly younger Canadians are much more active on the web, on social media in general, so we’re also engaging in that way.”
Al Plume, a member of a legion branch in Trenton, Ont., said the online store can also help with outreach to veterans who are far from home.
“For veterans that are overseas and are away, (or) can’t get to a store they can order them online, it’s Amazon.” Plume said.
Plume spent 35 years in the military with the Royal Engineers, and retired eight years ago. He said making sure veterans are looked after is his passion.
“I’ve seen the struggles that our veterans have had with Veterans Affairs … and that’s why I got involved, with making sure that the people get to them and help the veterans with their paperwork.”
But the message about the Amazon storefront didn’t appear to reach all of the legion’s locations, with volunteers at Branch 179 on Vancouver’s Commercial Drive saying they hadn’t heard about the online push.
Holly Paddon, the branch’s poppy campaign co-ordinator and bartender, said the Amazon partnership never came up in meetings with other legion volunteers and officials.
“I work at the legion, I work with the Vancouver poppy office and I go to the meetings for the Vancouver poppy campaign — which includes all the legions in Vancouver — and not once has this been mentioned,” she said.
Paddon said the initiative is a great idea, but she would like to have known more about it.
The legion also sells a larger collection of items at poppystore.ca.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
