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What next for Afghanistan's economy? – BBC News



Taliban fighters in Kabul


Afghanistan’s economy is “shaped by fragility and aid dependence”.

That is the troubling overview set out by the World Bank several months before the Taliban takeover.

Economic prospects look even more precarious now, as future financial assistance is under a cloud of uncertainty.

Afghanistan does have substantial mineral resources, but the political situation has impeded their exploitation.

The aid dependency is striking. In 2019, World Bank figures show development aid was equivalent to 22% of gross national income (which is not the same as GDP, but close to it).

That is a high figure, but it is down a long way from the 49% the World Bank reported 10 years earlier.

Now those aid flows are under a cloud of profound uncertainty. German Foreign Minister Heike Maas told the broadcaster ZDF last week: “We will not give another cent if the Taliban takes over the country and introduces Sharia law.”

Other aid donors are sure to be watching developments closely.

Corruption woes

The fragility the World Bank refers to is illustrated by the very high levels of spending on security before the Taliban takeover: 29% of GDP, compared with an average of 3% for low-income countries.

Security and severe problems with corruption are behind another persistent problem in Afghanistan: very weak foreign business investment.

According to United Nations data, there were no announcements in the last two years of new “greenfield” investments, which involve a foreign business setting up an operation from scratch. Since 2014, there have been a total of four.

To take two other countries from the South Asia region, both with somewhat smaller populations, Nepal has managed 10 times as many and Sri Lanka 50 times more over the same period.

The World Bank describes Afghanistan’s private sector as narrow. Employment is concentrated in low-productivity agriculture: 60% of households get some income from farming.

The country also has a large illicit economy. There is illegal mining and, of course, opium production and related activities such as smuggling. The drugs trade has been an important source of revenue for the Taliban.

Mineral wealth

All that said, the Afghan economy has grown since the US invasion in 2001.

The figures for Afghanistan are not reliable, but what they show, according to the World Bank, is average annual growth of more than 9% in the 10 years from 2003.

After that, it slowed (which may well reflect the lower levels of aid) to an average rate of 2.5% between 2015 and 2020.

Opium poppies in an Afghan field


The country does have significant natural resources, which would, in the context of better security and less corruption, be attractive to international business.

There are several types of mineral available in substantial quantities, including copper, cobalt, coal and iron ore. There is also oil and gas and precious stones.

One with particularly striking potential is lithium, a metal that is used in batteries for mobile devices and electric cars. The latter application is going to be especially important as the motor industry makes the transition to zero-carbon forms of transport.

Back in 2010, a top US general told the New York Times that Afghanistan’s mineral potential was “stunning” – with “a lot of ifs, of course”.

The paper also reported that an internal US Defence Department memo had said the country could become “the Saudi Arabia of lithium”.

Yet this undoubted potential is nowhere near being exploited – and the Afghan people have seen very little, if any, benefit from it.

Foreign powers

There have been many reports that China is keen to be involved. It seems to have better relations with the Taliban than Western powers do, so may have an advantage if the new regime does hold on to power.

However, Chinese firms did win contracts to develop operations in copper and oil. But little happened.

It is to be expected that China would be interested. The opportunities appear to be very substantial and the two countries do share a short border.

But any Chinese agency – official or a business – would want to be confident of succeeding. They will be reluctant to commit unless they feel the security and corruption problems will be well enough contained to enable them to extract worthwhile quantities of these industrial commodities.

A key question for any hard-nosed potential investors – from China or anywhere else – will be whether the Taliban is likely to be any more able than the previous Afghan government to create the kind of environment they need.

In the immediate future, there is also a great deal of uncertainty about financial stability. Crowds of people have been trying to withdraw their money from the banks.

The Pakistan-based Afghan Islamic Press reported a Taliban spokesman as offering assurances to bank owners, money changers, traders and shopkeepers that their lives and property would be protected.

That there are even questions about the physical safety of financial operators is shocking. They do need to be confident if Afghanistan’s financial system is to function. But it also needs customers to feel their money is safe. That won’t happen quickly.

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Teetering property developer Evergrande sparks contagion fears for China's economy –



Property developer China Evergrande Group is teetering on the brink of collapse, weighed down by a giant debt load and billions of dollars of real estate it can’t sell as quickly or as profitably as anticipated.

While trouble has been brewing for a year, it’s coming to a head now, as the conglomerate missed one loan payment in June and more are expected. The company’s offices were the site of angry protests this week, and things could get even uglier on Monday when the company is likely to miss another key interest payment to its increasingly concerned financiers.

Evergrande’s possible collapse is sparking fears that it could take other parts of China’s housing market down with it — and impact business interests outside China, too.

Here’s a brief explainer of what you need to know about the story.

What is Evergrande?

Founded in 1996 in the Chinese city of Shenzhen, across the border from Hong Kong, Evergrande is mostly a property developer, whose core business is buying up land and turning it into residential real estate. Company founder Hui Ka Yan is a former steel worker who rode China’s 21st century real estate boom to a fortune that was at one point last year worth $30 billion US, good enough for the title of third-richest man in China. 

The company has built more than 1,300 housing developments in 280 cities in China, with plans for another 3,000 projects underway in various cities across the country.

But like any good conglomerate, it has expanded into all sort of other businesses, including bottled water and food, electric vehicles, theme parks, a Netflix-like streaming service with almost 40 million customers — and even a professional soccer team.

Why are they in trouble?

Debt — and lots of it. The company has almost two trillion yuan of debt on its books, the equivalent of more than $300 billion US. The company aggressively borrowed money to buy more land to develop, and sold apartments quickly at low margins to raise enough cash to start the cycle up again. Which works fine as a business model — until it doesn’t.

In late 2020, new rules brought more scrutiny to the company’s finances, which revealed higher-than-expected debt loads. That, coupled with mounting construction delays spooked buyers, setting up a vicious cycle. The company began its descent to pariah status as lenders and buyers lost their nerve in lockstep with each other.

Every attempt by the company since then to distract from its problems only served to draw more attention to them. Lenders got more and more unsettled. Existing owners got upset. New sales slowed, which created a feedback loop that got lenders even more jittery.

WATCH | Investors angrily protest at Evergrande offices:

Chinese real estate jitters

18 hours ago

Buyers at Chinese property developer Evergrande are demanding answers from the company management, as fears mount that the company may collapse under its debt load. (David Kirton/Reuters) 0:34

In June, the company admitted it missed payment on a loan. The next month, a Chinese court froze a $20 million bank deposit at the request of one its lenders. At least one creditor, a paint supplier, is reportedly being paid in apartments that won’t be ready until 2024.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, on the 19th of July, presales at two projects in Hunan were halted. Three days later, Hong Kong banks stopped offering mortgages on any incomplete projects by the company in the city. On August 9, two more projects in Kunming stopped construction due to missed payments, followed by similar halts at projects in Nanjing and Chengdu. Things have snowballed ever since. The company’s stock price has cratered by 90 per cent in the past year, and most of their bonds are in junk status.

The company is behind on its obligations to more than 70,000 investors. More than one million buyers of unfinished projects are in limbo. And the pace of problems is picking up. “Sales could slump further as the developer may struggle to restore potential homebuyers’ confidence,” said Lisa Zhou, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.

Monday figures to be an inflection point for the company as Evergrande is supposed to make an $80 million interest payment on one of its many loans, and there’s next to no chance it will pay that, which could start the clock ticking toward some undesirable outcomes.

So what could happen?

A number of bleak B words are on the table — bankruptcy, breakup, buyout, or bailout — and none of them are ideal.

The first option would be the most painful. 

“If, as expected, Evergrande is defaulting on its debt and goes through a restructuring, I don’t see why it would be contained,” Michel Lowy of distressed debt investment firm SC Lowy, told Reuters.

The Emerald Bay residential project in Hong Kong has been beset by delays, and spooked buyers. ( Lam Yik/Bloomberg)

But because of the Chinese government’s long-standing desire for stability, that’s also the least likely outcome. The company owes money to 128 different banks, and was behind almost one out of every 20 property sales in China in the past five years. Evergrande permanently employs almost 200,000 people, but hires almost four million people a year to work on various projects.

With a reach that wide, analysts who cover the sector are confident that Beijing won’t let the company simply collapse. “Evergrande’s escalating crisis may prompt government action to prevent social instability,” Zhou said.

More likely is some version of the next two options, a breakup or buyout, where the company sells assets to raise cash and help is brought in to run things. “State-owned enterprises or other developers may also take over Evergrande’s projects, after Chinese officials sent accounting and legal experts to examine the company’s finances,” Zhou said.

A full government bailout, however, is just as unlikely. China has been cracking down on its high-flying technology sector, trying to regulate and ban cryptocurrencies and reining in excesses in all sorts of sectors. Evergrande’s problems may be a test case in Beijing’s desire and ability to manage every facet of the growing economy.

A man walks past a banner promoting the Emerald Bay residential project in Hong Kong, amid news that the developer is teetering on the brink of collapse. (Lam Yik/Bloomberg)

Economist Art Woo with Bank of Montreal said in a note on Friday that he also doubts a bailout is coming. “As for who could bear the losses, that’s frankly tricky to predict, but we think it’s reasonable to believe that the authorities are unlikely to bail out equity holders or creditors in an effort to prevent moral hazard from increasing and improve financial discipline,” he said.

More likely is some sort of organized wind down, to keep damage to a minimum. “We do not believe the government has an incentive to bail out Evergrande (which is a private-owned enterprise),” Nomura analyst Iris Chen said in a note to clients.

“But they will also not actively push Evergrande down and will supervise a more orderly default, if any, in our view.”

WATCH | CBC reported on China’s ‘ghost cities’ of empty towers nearly a decade ago:

China’s ghost cities

9 years ago

CBC’s Adrienne Arsenault explains how empty skyscrapers are casting shadows on the Canadian economy. 2:31

Is there an impact outside China?

Not much, directly, although the company does have assets in Europe and North America — including the ritzy Château Montebello resort in Quebec — but the company’s woes are nonetheless a cautionary tale for people everywhere.

China has been in a housing boom for more than two decades now, as more and more people put money into residential real estate — almost regardless of the price and demand for the underlying asset.

Video went viral on social media this month of a 15-tower condo development in Kunming being dynamited to the ground because it was a ghost city with no actual residents, eight years after being built.

While that wasn’t an Evergrande project, the worry is that there are many others out there like it.

China’s Lehman Brothers moment?

The 2009 financial crisis was sparked by the failure of two investment banks, Bear Stearns and then Lehman Brothers, which exposed just how much bad debt there was in the system, and caused a chain reaction of worry down the line 

That may be far fetched for the economy as a whole this time around, but it’s certainly on the table for China’s housing market at least.

“Lehman (was) very different as it went across the financial system, freezing activity,” said Patrick Perret-Green, an independent London-based analyst.

“Millions of contracts with multiple counterparties, everyone was trying to work out their exposure,” he said. “With Evergrande it depresses the entire real estate sector.”

“There are other developers that are suffering from the same problem of no access to liquidity and have extended themselves too much,” Lowy said.

Simon MacAdam, an economist with Capital Economics, says the Lehman parables are unwarranted.

“The China’s Lehman moment narrative is wide of the mark,” he said. “Even if it were the first of many property developers to go bust in China, we suspect it would take a policy misstep for this to cause a sharp slowdown in its economy.”

Regardless, the Evergrande saga is a cautionary tale about the down side of unrestrained real estate speculation anywhere.

As Woo put it: “A default or bankruptcy does not pose a Lehman-type threat … but it’s still bad news for the economy.”

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A downturn in the global industrial economy is already underway, currency chart confirms – CNBC



One economic forecaster predicted a slowdown in global industrial activity earlier this summer.

Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, says the currency markets are now confirming his call.

“We made that earlier global Industrial downturn call, and that meant that you were going to see this slowdown in industrial materials price inflation, industrial commodity price inflation and the top line of the chart shows that,” Achuthan told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Thursday.

ECRI’s industrial materials price index shows the growth rate at its lowest level in around a year after a sharp runup from mid-2020 to early 2021.

“That weakness in industrial materials inflation, commodity price inflation, is also negative for commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar or the Australian dollar because those are commodity-exporting countries and they rely more on commodity exports,” said Achuthan.

The Canadian and Australian dollar, both commodity currencies, are closely tied to commodity price inflation, and the fact they have begun to roll over confirms the downturn in industrial price inflation, he said. The Canadian dollar is closely tied to oil prices, while the Aussie dollar has a high correlation with oil and gold.

That could portend trouble for the commodity trade as well as other areas of the market, Achuthan said.

“A lot of people are excited about the runup in commodities. We’re saying directionally you got to look the other way. It has knock-on effects to commodity currencies vis-a-vis the dollar. And that has knock-on effects I think for other asset classes — what’s going on with some of those currencies can obviously impact commodities themselves, bonds, even stocks,” he said.


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The US economy is powering through Delta – CNN



A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here.

London (CNN Business)“Delta? What Delta?”

That was the take from Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, after seeing the data on US retail sales for August.
What’s happening: Contrary to expectations, US retail sales increased last month as consumers continued to shell out on clothing, furniture and groceries.
It’s a promising sign heading into the crucial holiday shopping season, and indicates that the US economy is demonstrating resilience despite a spike in coronavirus cases triggered by the Delta variant.
“We see only very modest evidence that the spread of the Delta variant is having an impact on demand,” Citi’s Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note to clients.
Another signal: There were 332,000 initial jobless claims in the United States last week. That’s only a slight uptick from the week prior, when claims hit a pandemic low.
The four-week moving average has now dropped to 335,800 claims, its best level in the Covid-19 era, according to Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank.
That’s not to say the Delta variant isn’t having any impact. Seatings at restaurants in the United States appear to have dropped sharply in recent days, according to data from OpenTable.
On the radar: In August, spending at restaurants was flat month-over-month. Grocery store spending also climbed 1.8%, suggesting that Americans were opting to dine more at home again.
And we can’t forget the jarring US jobs report for August, when just 235,000 positions were added. Restaurants and bars registered a loss of 42,000 jobs.
Big picture: The data is promising, but also messy. Rising prices due to inflation could be contributing to higher retail sales, muddying the picture. Plus, there’s a huge element of uncertainty about the economic trajectory as colder weather sets in. The Federal Reserve, which meets next week, doesn’t have an easy job charting the path forward.
For the time being, many are choosing to look on the bright side. New variants may weigh on the economic recovery, but could be far less damaging than early in the pandemic, as vaccinations help consumers feel more confident and allow governments to avoid reimposing strict rules.
“You’ll see more resilience with each wave,” Jeffrey Sacks, head of investment strategy for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Citi Private Bank, predicted earlier this week.

Wall Street is unfazed by China’s potential ‘Lehman moment’

The implosion of Lehman Brothers 13 years ago this week showed how the collapse of a single business can send shockwaves around the world.
Now, more than a decade later, policymakers and investors in the United States are watching closely as a massive property developer thousands of miles away teeters on the brink of default, my CNN Business colleague Matt Egan reports.
Catch up: The risk is that the collapse of Evergrande, a Chinese real estate company with a staggering $300 billion of debt outstanding, could set off a chain reaction that spreads overseas.
“Some fear an Evergrande meltdown will have systemic risks on par with the impact Lehman Brothers’ demise had on the US stock market,” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, wrote in a note to clients Thursday.
Like Lehman in its heyday, Evergrande is massive. It’s one of the world’s biggest businesses by revenue, and employs about 200,000 people.
But for now, investors are confident that authorities in Beijing would use their vast control over the Chinese economy to limit the damage. So far, there’s no evidence of contagion in US markets.
“I don’t think the Evergrande meltdown, and the financial problems of Chinese property companies more broadly, will reverberate back on the US economy,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNN Business.
Not alone: “We think that the ‘China’s Lehman moment’ narrative is wide of the mark,” Simon MacAdam, senior global economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note on Thursday. MacAdam said even a “messy collapse” of Evergrande would have “little global impact beyond some market turbulence.”
Only time will tell, however, how systemically important the company really is — and what Beijing may do to cushion the blow.

These were the week’s hottest IPOs

Companies that made their public market debuts in the United States this week are generating tons of hype, benefiting from investor enthusiasm for new stocks in industries ranging from software to athletic wear.
The highlights: ForgeRock, a San Francisco-based company that makes identity verification software, hauled in $275 million through its stock sale. Its shares also enjoyed a huge pop in their first day of trading on the New York Stock Exchange, jumping 46% on Thursday.
Stock in Swiss sportswear brand On, which is backed by tennis superstar Roger Federer, has surged 56% above the company’s initial public offering price since Wednesday.
And Thoughtworks, a tech consultancy, has seen its stock on the Nasdaq jump almost 50% in its first two days of trading.
Bloomberg calculates that IPOs on US exchanges — excluding special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACS — raised almost $4.4 billion this week.
Step back: Buzzy IPOs have generated mixed returns this year. The Renaissance IPO exchange-traded fund, which tracks the biggest newly-listed public companies in the United States, is up just 7.3% year-to-date, compared to a 19.1% rise in the S&P 500. Its top holdings include Snowflake, Palantir, Datadog and Coinbase.
But newer stocks have started to perform better in recent months. The Renaissance IPO ETF has climbed 4.6% in the third quarter, versus a 4.1% increase in the S&P 500.

Up next

Manchester United (MANU) reports results before US markets open.
Also today: The University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment posts at 10 a.m. ET.
Coming next week: The Federal Reserve holds a policy meeting as investors scrutinize the central bank’s next steps.

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