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What Olaf Scholz means for the world economy – BBC News

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It is an important moment for Europe. A new German chancellor. And what happens in the German economy affects us all.

It also happens to be the elevation of an incumbent finance minister to the most powerful position in European politics.

I did the last lengthy English-language interview with Olaf Scholz, when he was visiting London in summer to seal a deal on global multinational taxation, before he became favourite for the German chancellorship.

He was almost tearful with joy at the G7 agreement, on a topic he had suggested years before. The agreement “will really change the world”, he told me, of a move impossible a year before with President Trump.

A political rival once likened his grin to that of the Smurf cartoon characters. He retorted that they are “small, crafty and always win”.

Signature policies

There are three signature economic policies he has been associated with that are of ongoing significance.

For one, he told me of his pride that the short-time working schemes, whose use was promoted in Germany by his ministry in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, were now being used around Europe, including the UK, in the guise of the furlough scheme.

“It was right that we gave very strong fiscal answers to fight against the pandemic,” he told me.

“We supported the health of our people with the money we spent, but also the economy and many jobs.

“Short-term allowances, Kurzarbeit – the method which I used when I was the minister of labour in Germany 10 years ago with the last crisis – are now something that is used, not just in Germany, but all over the EU and many other countries of the world. And this shows that it is right to do something against a crisis like this.”

He was also responsible for the Agenda 2010 reforms of the last centre-left Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. Those reforms saw significant reductions in labour costs in Germany, the establishment of low-paid “mini jobs” and also a rapid rise in German export competitiveness, as well as the revival of its economy.

The inability of southern Europe to compete helped lead to the profound eurozone crisis. The view in Germany, that the rest of Europe had to go through the same “internal devaluation” before Germany would sign off on bailouts of bankrupt eurozone nations, prolonged that crisis.

Amid that fearful moment, he also signed off on the “debt brake” policy that meant in normal times, Germany would not invest. It has been suspended during the Covid pandemic for obvious reasons.

The brake will return under the coalition agreement just struck with the Greens and Liberals, but not before a splurge in investment spending. The challenge is how to square ongoing spending plans with no tax rises and controls on borrowing.

Germany’s long history of state-backed investment lending institutions such as KfW will help bridge this gap. But this will be a source of tension in this untested three-party coalition.

But lessons have been learnt from the eurozone crisis. Mr Scholz now backs non “mini-jobs”, but a €12 minimum wage. As finance minister, he helped Brussels sign off its own centralised capacity to borrow money to help growth and deal with crises.

Climate club

Chancellor Scholz is very focused on climate change, in the home of the European automotive industry. His concept is massive investment to further green Germany’s industrial base. And internationally, the establishment of a “climate club” of like-minded nations to manage frictions over trade.

“Success in fighting against climate change will only be feasible if we include all the nations and if everyone understands why it’s good for himself and for his people. We are now discussing the question of co-operation,” he told me.

How German industry deals with, for example, the EU-proposed border tax on carbon emissions will be a crunch point on the path to net-zero.

All this comes at a time when inflation has spiked up to 6% in the famously inflation-averse nation. And German industry has been hit for six by the supply chain constraints on microchips and other parts in the post pandemic rebound.

Pre-Omicron, most forecasts suggest the German economy will avoid the feared “bottleneck recession”, but the situation is definitely more challenging than at the time of the election in September.

And then there is Brexit and fears over a trade war. Will the famous German carmakers force a new chancellor to fold over Article 16 to protect their exports to the UK? It is not a priority in the Bundeskanzleramt, the washing-machine-like version of the White House in Berlin.

There will be continuity with the policies of the Merkel administration. When I asked about frictions with the UK, Olaf Scholz was diplomatic but pointed.

“I’m always optimistic and happy that we got a deal in the end on the relationship between the European Union and the UK, and I hope that everyone will follow the deal and that everything will be exactly to what we have just written down,” he told me.

“And if this is the case, I think we can be assured that we will have good trade relations also in the future, which would be good for the people of the UK as well as for the European Union.”

So some reason for optimism, as long as the deal is followed. For now, Chancellor Scholz has his own economic challenges closer to home.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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