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What rapidly moving pitching market means for Blue Jays

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The Toronto Blue Jays’ slow start to the off-season has created a lot of consternation that is understandable, and may or may not end up being justified.

Toronto’s roster does have some significant holes, and the team has done nothing to address them.

While Teoscar Hernández’s departure has created uncertainty in the outfield, the most glaring issue may be the rotation where Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White would both have a spot if the season started tomorrow, and the depth behind them is dubious at best.

The Blue Jays have reportedly been all over the pitching market in recent days despite having nothing to show for it. There’s Ross Stripling-sized hole in their rotation and still a number of ways to fill it through free agency.

Stripling himself remains available, although they haven’t seemed to show much interest in running it back with the 33-year-old.

Carlos Rodón resides alone at the top of the market coming off a masterful season with the San Francisco Giants. His 6.2 fWAR ranked second in the majors and his K/9 over the last two years (12.23) is tops among all starters with 300 or more innings pitched. He comes with legitimate health concerns, but he’s also an ace on a per-inning basis.

Perhaps the most intriguing option is Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga, who brings triple-digit heat and a bat-missing splitter. His career ERA in NPB is 2.85 with a 10.35 K/9. That all sounds appealing, but the next time the Blue Jays land a high-profile free agent straight from Japan will be the first.

There are also some middle-of-the-rotation types left in Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Noah Syndergaard plus back-end veterans like Corey Kluber, Michael Wacha and Johnny Cueto. Sean Manaea floats between those categories as a bounce-back candidate with a high range of outcomes.

Sitting on the sidelines this long doesn’t mean there are no more options for the Blue Jays, but the list is certainly shrinking — especially if the team wanted to stack their rotation with another top-end arm. Based on who’s left, adding a high-floor player to stabilize the back end seems more likely.

If nothing else, the Blue Jays have had the benefit of watching the market develop. Here’s what they can learn from what they’ve seen so far, as they continue to shop:

Bargains will be hard to come by

While prices on free agent contracts tend to rise year over year, this season the bump has been larger than expected.

Almost every starter that’s signed has done so for a larger payday than projected. Below is a chart with each starting pitcher in MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list who’s found a deal with their total contract value lined up against MLBTR’s prediction and FanGraphs’ crowdsourced estimate.

Player

MLBTR Prediction

FanGraphs Estimate

Actual Contract

Jacob deGrom

$135 million

$120 million

$185 million

Justin Verlander

$120 million

$70 million

$86.6 million

Taijuan Walker

$59 million

$32 million

$72 million

Jameson Taillon

$56 million

$36 million

$78 million

Zach Eflin

$22 million

$30 million

$40 million

Tyler Anderson

$19.7 million

$43.5 million

$39 million

Jose Quintana

$24 million

$24 million

$26 million

Andrew Heaney

$42 million

$20 million

$25 million

Clayton Kershaw

$20 million

$20 million

$20 million

Martin Perez

$19.7 million

$39 million

$19.7 million

Mike Clevinger

$10 million

$8 million

$12 million

There are some exceptions here as Justin Verlander went with a two-year deal to boost his AAV, Clayton Kershaw isn’t seeking his market value any more, and Martin Pérez took a qualifying offer instead of pursuing term.

Even so, the pattern with these 10 starters is undeniable. MLBTR had them making $520.4 million while FanGraphs’ crowdsourcing pegged them at $449.5 million.

They made $593.3 million.

It’s a great time to be a starting pitcher, and teams getting into the market now have to understand that they’ll have to pay up for talent.

More specifically…

$10 million seems like the floor

Getting a back-of-the-rotation starter for an AAV under eight digits has been difficult in previous years, but in this market it looks impossible.

The only pure starter to go for less than $10 million in this year’s free agency is Jose Urena, who has posted four consecutive seasons with an ERA over 5.00 and hasn’t pitched more than 100.2 innings since 2018.

Last season, back-end starters like Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson, Kluber and Wacha all signed for less than $10 million, but those kinds of deals seem like they’ll be harder to come by.

Even Kyle Gibson reached this mark heading into his age-35 season with a 1.8 fWAR year with a 5.05 ERA in his rearview mirror.

Speaking of Gibson…

Luring pitching to Toronto can still be an issue

The Blue Jays reportedly lost out on Gibson despite making an identical offer to an objectively worse Baltimore Orioles team.

This tends to get charged when it becomes a discussion about perceptions of Canada, but this issue isn’t just about how players view the country.

Blue Jays’ Shapiro believes it’s becoming easier to attract players to Toronto

It’s possible that Gibson has a negative view of Toronto or the country it resides in. More likely the issue is that in most cases Canadian taxes are higher, which means the same offer can net out as a lower take-home total. Even if it doesn’t, the administration on that front can be a headache.

There’s also a more benign fear of the unknown, or comfort in the familiar. Pitching in the AL East is something many pitchers seek to avoid as well, especially if they’re on short-term deals working towards their next contract. That wasn’t the issue in Gibson’s case, but it can be a factor.

At the end of the day, the Blue Jays may not win many ties in the free agent market with pitchers. Gibson provides a solid reminder of that. That means they have to be willing to outbid rivals, often by offering extra term — like they did on the Hyun-Jin Ryu and Kikuchi deals with mixed results.

On the topic of Kikuchi…

Traits can be enough to get you paid

Last off-season, the Blue Jays signed the Japanese southpaw to a three-year, $36 million contract based on what they thought he could do rather than what he’d done.

Although a hot first half of 2021 earned him a trip to the All-Star Game, Kikuchi produced a 4.97 ERA with the Seattle Mariners and continually struggled with his control. The Blue Jays saw rare velocity from the left side — plus a slider with promise — and felt they could guide him to more consistent results, as they did with Robbie Ray and Steven Matz.

The Blue Jays aren’t alone in this kind of thinking. The previous off-season, Drew Smyly earned a one-year $11 million deal with the Atlanta Braves based on 26.1 promising innings in 2020 that saw him change his pitch mix.

In this market, Heaney has already earned a multi-year deal with the Texas Rangers off 72.2 strong innings with the Los Angeles Dodgers and the stingy Tampa Bay Rays gave Zach Eflin a three-year, $40 million deal despite the fact he’s had an ERA south of 4.00 once as a starter — and it was 3.97 in a shortened 2020.

Kikuchi’s deal looks like a misstep, meaning it’s hard to imagine the Blue Jays going down this road again. There aren’t many obvious candidates left on the board, although Michael Lorenzen stands out as an impressive athlete who threw a 95 m.p.h fastball with 82nd percentile spin in his first season as a full-time starter since 2015 last year.

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David Lipsky shoots 65 to take 1st-round lead at Silverado in FedEx Cup Fall opener

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NAPA, Calif. (AP) — David Lipsky shot a 7-under 65 on Thursday at Silverado Country Club to take a one-stroke lead after the first round of the Procore Championship.

Winless in 104 events since joining the PGA Tour in 2022, Lipsky went out with the early groups and had eight birdies with one bogey to kick off the FedEx Cup Fall series at the picturesque course in the heart of Napa Valley wine country.

After missing the cut in his three previous tournaments, Lipsky flew from Las Vegas to Arizona to reunite with his college coach at Northwestern to get his focus back. He also spent time playing with some of the Northwestern players, which helped him relax.

“Just being around those guys and seeing how carefree they are, not knowing what’s coming for them yet, it’s sort of nice to see that,” Lipsky said. “I was almost energized by their youthfulness.”

Patton Kizzire and Mark Hubbard were a stroke back. Kizzire started on the back nine and made a late run with three consecutive birdies to move into a tie for first. A bogey on No. 8 dropped him back.

“There was a lot of good stuff out there today,” Kizzire said. “I stayed patient and just went through my routines and played well, one shot at a time. I’ve really bee working hard on my mental game and I think that allowed me to rinse and repeat and reset and keep playing.”

Mark Hubbard was at 67. He had nine birdies but fell off the pace with a bogey and triple bogey on back-to-back holes.

Kevin Dougherty also was in the group at 67. He had two eagles and ended his afternoon by holing out from 41 yards on the 383-yard, par-4 18th.

Defending champion Sahith Theegala had to scramble for much of his round of 69.

Wyndham Clark, who won the U.S. Open in 2023 and the AT&T at Pebble Beach in February, had a 70.

Max Homa shot 71. The two-time tournament champion and a captain’s pick for the President’s Cup in two weeks had two birdies and overcame a bogey on the par-4 first.

Stewart Cink, the 2020 winner, also opened with a 71. He won The Ally Challenge last month for his first PGA Tour Champions title.

Three players from the Presidents Cup International team had mix results. Min Woo Lee shot 68, Mackenzie Hughes of Dundas, Ont., 69 and Corey Conners of Listowel, Ont., 73. International team captain Mike Weir of Brights Grove, Ont., also had a 69.

Ben Silverman of Thornhill, Ont., had a 68, Nick Taylor of Abbotsford, B.C., and Roger Sloan of Merritt, B.C., shot 70 and Adam Svensson of Surrey, B.C., had a 71.

Lipsky was a little shaky off the tee for much of the afternoon but made up for it with steady iron play that left him in great shape on the greens. He had one-putts on 11 holes and was in position for a bigger day but left five putts short.

Lipsky’s only real problem came on the par-4 ninth when his approach sailed into a bunker just shy of the green. He bounced back nicely with five birdies on his back nine. After missing a 19-foot putt for birdie on No. 17, Lipsky ended his day with a 12-foot par putt.

That was a big change from last year when Lipsky tied for 30th at Silverado when he drove the ball well but had uneven success on the greens.

“Sometimes you have to realize golf can be fun, and I think I sort of forgot that along the way as I’m grinding it out,” Lipsky said. “You’ve got to put things in perspective, take a step back. Sort of did that and it seems like it’s working out.”

Laird stayed close after beginning his day with a bogey on the par-4 10th. The Scot got out of the sand nicely but pushed his par putt past the hole.

Homa continued to have issues off the tee and missed birdie putts on his final four holes.

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AP golf:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canada’s Marina Stakusic advances to quarterfinals at Guadalajara Open

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GUADALAJARA, Mexico – Canada’s Marina Stakusic is moving on to the quarterfinals of the Guadalajara Open.

The Mississauga, Ont., native defeated the tournament top seed, Jelena Ostapenko of Latvia, 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 (0) in the round of 16 on Thursday.

Stakusic faced a 0-4 deficit in the third and final set before marching back into the match.

The 19-year-old won five of the next six games to even it up before exchanging games to force a tiebreaker, where Stakusic took complete control to win the match.

Stakusic had five aces with 17 double faults in the three-hour, four-minute match.

However, she converted eight of her 18 break-point opportunities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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France investigating disappearances of 2 Congolese Paralympic athletes

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PARIS (AP) — French judicial authorities are investigating the disappearance of two Paralympic athletes from Congo who recently competed in the Paris Games, the prosecutor’s office in the Paris suburb of Bobigny confirmed on Thursday.

Prosecutors opened the investigation on Sept. 7, after members of the athletes’ delegation warned authorities of their disappearance two days before.

Le Parisien newspaper reported that shot putter Mireille Nganga and Emmanuel Grace Mouambako, a visually impaired sprinter who was accompanied by a guide, went missing on Sept. 5, along with a third person.

The athletes’ suitcases were also gone but their passports remained with the Congolese delegation, according to an official with knowledge of the investigation, who asked to remain anonymous as they were not allowed to speak publicly about the case.

The Paralympic Committee of the Democratic Republic of Congo did not respond to requests for information from The Associated Press.

Nganga — who recorded no mark in the seated javelin and shot put competitions — and Mouambako were Congo’s flag bearers at the opening ceremony of the Paralympic Games, organizers said.

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AP Paralympics:

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