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What rapidly moving pitching market means for Blue Jays

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The Toronto Blue Jays’ slow start to the off-season has created a lot of consternation that is understandable, and may or may not end up being justified.

Toronto’s roster does have some significant holes, and the team has done nothing to address them.

While Teoscar Hernández’s departure has created uncertainty in the outfield, the most glaring issue may be the rotation where Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White would both have a spot if the season started tomorrow, and the depth behind them is dubious at best.

The Blue Jays have reportedly been all over the pitching market in recent days despite having nothing to show for it. There’s Ross Stripling-sized hole in their rotation and still a number of ways to fill it through free agency.

Stripling himself remains available, although they haven’t seemed to show much interest in running it back with the 33-year-old.

Carlos Rodón resides alone at the top of the market coming off a masterful season with the San Francisco Giants. His 6.2 fWAR ranked second in the majors and his K/9 over the last two years (12.23) is tops among all starters with 300 or more innings pitched. He comes with legitimate health concerns, but he’s also an ace on a per-inning basis.

Perhaps the most intriguing option is Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga, who brings triple-digit heat and a bat-missing splitter. His career ERA in NPB is 2.85 with a 10.35 K/9. That all sounds appealing, but the next time the Blue Jays land a high-profile free agent straight from Japan will be the first.

There are also some middle-of-the-rotation types left in Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Noah Syndergaard plus back-end veterans like Corey Kluber, Michael Wacha and Johnny Cueto. Sean Manaea floats between those categories as a bounce-back candidate with a high range of outcomes.

Sitting on the sidelines this long doesn’t mean there are no more options for the Blue Jays, but the list is certainly shrinking — especially if the team wanted to stack their rotation with another top-end arm. Based on who’s left, adding a high-floor player to stabilize the back end seems more likely.

If nothing else, the Blue Jays have had the benefit of watching the market develop. Here’s what they can learn from what they’ve seen so far, as they continue to shop:

Bargains will be hard to come by

While prices on free agent contracts tend to rise year over year, this season the bump has been larger than expected.

Almost every starter that’s signed has done so for a larger payday than projected. Below is a chart with each starting pitcher in MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list who’s found a deal with their total contract value lined up against MLBTR’s prediction and FanGraphs’ crowdsourced estimate.

Player

MLBTR Prediction

FanGraphs Estimate

Actual Contract

Jacob deGrom

$135 million

$120 million

$185 million

Justin Verlander

$120 million

$70 million

$86.6 million

Taijuan Walker

$59 million

$32 million

$72 million

Jameson Taillon

$56 million

$36 million

$78 million

Zach Eflin

$22 million

$30 million

$40 million

Tyler Anderson

$19.7 million

$43.5 million

$39 million

Jose Quintana

$24 million

$24 million

$26 million

Andrew Heaney

$42 million

$20 million

$25 million

Clayton Kershaw

$20 million

$20 million

$20 million

Martin Perez

$19.7 million

$39 million

$19.7 million

Mike Clevinger

$10 million

$8 million

$12 million

There are some exceptions here as Justin Verlander went with a two-year deal to boost his AAV, Clayton Kershaw isn’t seeking his market value any more, and Martin Pérez took a qualifying offer instead of pursuing term.

Even so, the pattern with these 10 starters is undeniable. MLBTR had them making $520.4 million while FanGraphs’ crowdsourcing pegged them at $449.5 million.

They made $593.3 million.

It’s a great time to be a starting pitcher, and teams getting into the market now have to understand that they’ll have to pay up for talent.

More specifically…

$10 million seems like the floor

Getting a back-of-the-rotation starter for an AAV under eight digits has been difficult in previous years, but in this market it looks impossible.

The only pure starter to go for less than $10 million in this year’s free agency is Jose Urena, who has posted four consecutive seasons with an ERA over 5.00 and hasn’t pitched more than 100.2 innings since 2018.

Last season, back-end starters like Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson, Kluber and Wacha all signed for less than $10 million, but those kinds of deals seem like they’ll be harder to come by.

Even Kyle Gibson reached this mark heading into his age-35 season with a 1.8 fWAR year with a 5.05 ERA in his rearview mirror.

Speaking of Gibson…

Luring pitching to Toronto can still be an issue

The Blue Jays reportedly lost out on Gibson despite making an identical offer to an objectively worse Baltimore Orioles team.

This tends to get charged when it becomes a discussion about perceptions of Canada, but this issue isn’t just about how players view the country.

Blue Jays’ Shapiro believes it’s becoming easier to attract players to Toronto

It’s possible that Gibson has a negative view of Toronto or the country it resides in. More likely the issue is that in most cases Canadian taxes are higher, which means the same offer can net out as a lower take-home total. Even if it doesn’t, the administration on that front can be a headache.

There’s also a more benign fear of the unknown, or comfort in the familiar. Pitching in the AL East is something many pitchers seek to avoid as well, especially if they’re on short-term deals working towards their next contract. That wasn’t the issue in Gibson’s case, but it can be a factor.

At the end of the day, the Blue Jays may not win many ties in the free agent market with pitchers. Gibson provides a solid reminder of that. That means they have to be willing to outbid rivals, often by offering extra term — like they did on the Hyun-Jin Ryu and Kikuchi deals with mixed results.

On the topic of Kikuchi…

Traits can be enough to get you paid

Last off-season, the Blue Jays signed the Japanese southpaw to a three-year, $36 million contract based on what they thought he could do rather than what he’d done.

Although a hot first half of 2021 earned him a trip to the All-Star Game, Kikuchi produced a 4.97 ERA with the Seattle Mariners and continually struggled with his control. The Blue Jays saw rare velocity from the left side — plus a slider with promise — and felt they could guide him to more consistent results, as they did with Robbie Ray and Steven Matz.

The Blue Jays aren’t alone in this kind of thinking. The previous off-season, Drew Smyly earned a one-year $11 million deal with the Atlanta Braves based on 26.1 promising innings in 2020 that saw him change his pitch mix.

In this market, Heaney has already earned a multi-year deal with the Texas Rangers off 72.2 strong innings with the Los Angeles Dodgers and the stingy Tampa Bay Rays gave Zach Eflin a three-year, $40 million deal despite the fact he’s had an ERA south of 4.00 once as a starter — and it was 3.97 in a shortened 2020.

Kikuchi’s deal looks like a misstep, meaning it’s hard to imagine the Blue Jays going down this road again. There aren’t many obvious candidates left on the board, although Michael Lorenzen stands out as an impressive athlete who threw a 95 m.p.h fastball with 82nd percentile spin in his first season as a full-time starter since 2015 last year.

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Washington Capitals 3-2 win ends Dallas Stars’ winning streak

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome and Taylor Raddysh scored to help the Washington Capitals end the Dallas Stars’ season-opening winning streak at four with a 3-2 victory Thursday night.

Wilson’s goal was his third in three games, Strome his second of the season and Raddysh his first since joining the team in free agency last summer. Charlie Lindgren made 22 saves as the Capitals wrapped up this early homestand with back-to-back wins.

The Stars fell from the ranks of the league’s unbeaten teams despite a short-handed goal by Colin Blackwell and one at even strength from Jason Robertson. Rookie Oskar Bäck set up Blackwell for his first NHL point.

Casey DeSmith was screened on two of the three goals he allowed on 26 shots.

LIGHTNING 4, GOLDEN KNIGHTS 3

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — Nikita Kucherov scored the winning goal with less than a minute to play just 1:27 after Brandon Hagel had tied it and Tampa Bay rallied to beat Vegas.

Kucherov’s second goal of the game with 55 seconds left was his sixth of the season.

Janis Moser had a goal and two assists for the Lightning, who remain unbeaten. Andrei Vasilevskiy made 22 saves.

Brayden McNabb, Pavel Dorofeyev and Ivan Barbashev had goals for Vegas. Adin Hill turned aside 21 shots.

Jack Eichel, with two assists on Thursday, now has 10 points this season in five games and reached reached double-digit points faster than any other player in Vegas history. He is the 10th U.S.-born player to accomplish the feat.

After Barbashev put Vegas up 3-2 early in the second, Hagel pulled Tampa Bay even at 3 with 2:22 remaining in the third.

BLUE JACKETS 6, SABRES 4

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Kirill Marchenko and Mathieu Olivier each had a goal and an assist and Daniil Tarasov made 21 saves to help Columbus to a win over Buffalo.

Yegor Chinakhov, Adam Fantilli, Zachary Aston-Reese and Damon Severson also scored for Columbus, and Zach Werenski added two assists.

Ryan McLeod, Owen Power and JJ Peterka scored for Buffalo, and Jiri Kulich added his first NHL goal. Devon Lev stopped 19 shots for the Sabres (1-5-1), who have lost two straight road games and five of their first six overall.

CANUCKS 3, FLORIDA 2, OT

SUNRISE, Fla. (AP) — J.T. Miller scored 2:09 into overtime and Vancouver got their first win of the season, beating Florida.

Teddy Blueger and Quinn Hughes had goals for Vancouver, with Kevin Lankinen stopping 26 shots.

Anton Lundell got his fourth goal in the last three games for Florida and Jesper Boqvist also scored for the Panthers, who got 30 saves from Sergei Bobrovsky.

Florida remained without forwards Aleksander Barkov (lower body) and Matthew Tkachuk (illness).

DEVILS 3, SENATORS 1

OTTAWA, Ontario (AP) — Jacob Markstrom stopped 30 shots and lost his shutout bid in the final minutes as New Jersey beat Ottawa.

Erik Haula, Nathan Bastian and Paul Cotter scored for the Devils, who won for the third time in four games and improved to 5-2-0.

The Senators, who were coming off an 8-7 overtime victory against Los Angeles on Monday, struggled to beat Markstrom.

Brady Tkachuk was the only scorer for the Senators, beating Markstrom, with a power-play goal with 65 seconds remaining in the third period.

Anton Forsberg, making his second straight start and hoping to rebound after getting pulled Monday, made 32 saves in the loss.

Haula opened the scoring early in the second period and Bastian added a short-handed goal, giving New Jersey a 2-0 lead after 40 minutes. Cotter scored midway through the third.

RANGERS 5, RED WING 2

DETROIT (AP) — Artemi Panarin had his eighth career hat trick and New York rolled to a victory over Detroit.

Panarin became the first Rangers player to have multiple points in the first four games of a season. He scored twice on the power play. Vincent Trocheck also had a power- play goal and assisted on all of Panarin’s goals.

Jonathan Quick made 29 saves in his season debut. Victor Mancini also scored.

The Rangers have won the last five meetings, including twice this week. New York had a 4-1 home victory over Detroit on Monday night.

Moritz Seider and J.T. Compher scored for Detroit. Red Wings goalie Cam Talbot was pulled in the second period after allowing five goals.

KINGS 4, CANADIENS 1

MONTREAL (AP) — David Rittich made 26 saves a night after being benched in the second period in Toronto, helping road-weary Los Angeles snap a three-game losing streak with a victory over Montreal.

Los Angeles improved to 2-1-2 on a season-opening, seven-game trip necessitated by arena renovations.

Rittich rebounded after allowing four goals on 14 shots in a 6-2 loss to the Maple Leafs. Alex Laferriere, Mikey Anderson, Andreas Englund and Adrian Kempe scored.

Justin Barron scored for Montreal (2-3-0). Sam Montembeault stopped 28 shots. He made a save on Kevin Fiala on a penalty shot.

BLUES 1, ISLANDERS 0, OT

ST. LOUIS (AP) — Joel Hofer made 34 saves and assisted on Jake Neighbours’ goal at 2:04 of overtime in St. Louis victory over New York.

Hofer had his second career shutout in his and the team’s second overtime victory of the season.

Philip Broberg carried the puck into the New York zone and made a centering pass to Neighbours for the winner.

Islanders goalie Ilya Sorkin made 29 saves.

Blues defenseman Nick Leddy sat out because of a lower-body injury, the first game he has missed this season. Leddy played in all 82 games last season.

OILERS 4, PREDATORS 2

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Brett Kulak scored twice and Connor McDavid added his first goal of the season to lead Edmonton to a victory over reeling Nashville.

Jeff Skinner also scored and Calvin Pickard made 25 saves for the defending Western Conference champion Oilers, who have won consecutive games after beginning the season with a three-game skid.

Filip Forsberg and Jonathan Marchessault scored and Juuse Saros made 32 saves for Nashville (0-4).

Forsberg’s goal midway through the first period gave Nashville its first lead of the season. That lasted less than six minutes before Kulak tied it.

Kulak sealed it with an empty-netter in the final minute for the defenseman’s first career two-goal game.

BLACKHAWKS 4, SHARKS 2

CHICAGO (AP) — Tyler Bertuzzi and Nick Foligno each scored a power-play goal, and Chicago beat San Jose.

Taylor Hall and Jason Dickinson also scored for Chicago. Connor Bedard and Teuvo Teravainen each had two assists.

Hall, who missed most of last season because of right knee surgery, put the Blackhawks in front 4:20 into the first period. It was Hall’s first goal since Nov. 5 and No. 267 for his career.

Tyler Toffoli and Fabian Zetterlund scored for San Jose, which trailed 3-0 early in the second. William Eklund and Mikael Granlund had two assists each.

The Sharks dropped to 0-2-2 under Ryan Warsofsky, who was promoted to head coach in June.

Petr Mrazek had 20 saves for Chicago, and Vitek Vanecek made 23 stops for San Jose.

KRAKEN 6, FLYERS 4

SEATTLE (AP) — Eeli Tolvanen, Jordan Eberle, and Shane Wright scored three goals in less than three minutes in the second period and Seattle held off a Philadelphia rally in a victory.

Tolvanen’s goal broke a 2-2 tie at the 14:57 mark. Eberle made it a two-goal game with a goal at 17:44. Eight seconds later, Wright scored to give Seattle a three-goal lead.

Jared McCann tied the game at 2-2 with the first of Seattle’s four second-period goals.

Cam York and Jamie Drysdale scored to pull Philadelphia within 5-4 in the third period, but Oliver Bjorkstrand responded with a goal to push Seattle’s lead to two with just over five minutes left in the game.

Scott Laughton scored twice for the Flyers in the first period, while Brandon Montour scored one in for the Kraken.

Chandler Stephenson had an assist in his 500th NHL game. Seattle’s Philipp Grubauer had 21 saves.

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Canada’s Dabrowski, New Zealand’s Routliffe out of Japan Women’s Open after walkover

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OSAKA, Japan – Canada’s Gabriela Dabrowski and New Zealand’s Erin Routliffe are out of the Japan Women’s Open tennis tournament.

Spain’s Cristina Bucsa and Romania’s Monica Niculescu advanced to the final on Thursday by way of walkover.

The fourth seeds were supposed to play the top-seeded Dabrowski and Routliffe in the semifinals.

Bucsa and Niculescu will next face third-seeded Ena Shibahara of Japan and Laura Siegemund of Germany in the final.

Dabrowski and Routliffe defeated Japan’s Shuko Aoyama and Eri Hozumi in the quarterfinals 6-2, 6-4 on Wednesday to advance.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Mountain West commissioner says she’s heartbroken over turmoil surrounding San Jose State volleyball

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LAS VEGAS (AP) — Mountain West Conference Commissioner Gloria Nevarez said Thursday the forfeitures that volleyball teams are willing to take to avoid playing San Jose State is “not what we celebrate in college athletics” and that she is heartbroken over what has transpired this season surrounding the Spartans and their opponents.

Four teams have canceled games against San Jose State: Boise State, Southern Utah, Utah State and Wyoming, with none of the schools explicitly saying why they were forfeiting.

A group of Nevada players issued a statement saying they will not take the floor when the Wolf Pack are scheduled to host the Spartans on Oct. 26. They cited their “right to safety and fair competition,” though their school reaffirmed Thursday that the match is still planned and that state law bars forfeiture “for reasons related to gender identity or expression.”

All those schools, except Southern Utah, are in the Mountain West. New Mexico, also in the MWC, went ahead with its home match on Thursday night, which was won by the Spartans, 3-1, the team’s first victory since Sept. 24.

“It breaks my heart because they’re human beings, young people, student-athletes on both sides of this issue that are getting a lot of national negative attention,” Nevarez said in an interview with The Associated Press at Mountain West basketball media days. “It just doesn’t feel right to me.”

Republican governors of Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming have made public statements in support of the cancellations, citing a need for fairness in women’s sports. Former President Donald Trump, the GOP nominee in this year’s presidential race, this week referenced an unidentified volleyball match when he was asked during a Fox News town hall about transgender athletes in women’s sports.

“I saw the slam, it was a slam. I never saw a ball hit so hard, hit the girl in the head,” Trump replied before he was asked what can be done. “You just ban it. The president bans it. You just don’t let it happen.”

After Trump’s comment, San Diego State issued a statement that said “it has been incorrectly reported that an San Diego State University student-athlete was hit in the face with a volleyball during match play with San Jose State University. The ball bounced off the shoulder of the student-athlete, and the athlete was uninjured and did not miss a play.”

San Jose State has not made any direct comments about the politicians’ “fairness” references, and Nevarez did not go into details.

“I’m learning a lot about the issue,” Nevarez said. “I don’t know a lot of the language yet or the science or the understanding nationally of how this issue plays out. The external influences are so far on either side. We have an election year. It’s political, so, yeah, it feels like a no-win based on all the external pressure.”

The cancellations could mean some teams will not qualify for the conference tournament Nov. 27-30 in Las Vegas, where the top six schools are slated to compete for the league championship.

“The student-athlete (in question) meets the eligibility standard, so if a team does not play them, it’s a forfeit, meaning they take a loss,” Nevarez said.

Ahead of the Oct. 26 match in Reno. Nevada released a statement acknowledging that “a majority of the Wolf Pack women’s volleyball team” had decided to forfeit against San Jose State. The school said only the university can take that step but any player who decides not to play would face no punishment.

___

AP college sports:

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