What Really Happened With Russia’s Economy in 2022
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What Really Happened With Russia’s Economy in 2022

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While many analysts and observers expected the Russian economy to collapse under the weight of the Ukraine war and a flood of Western sanctions, the country has actually appeared surprisingly resilient through 2022.

The head of Russia’s Central Bank said in December that Russian GDP would contract just 3% in 2022, while President Vladimir Putin predicted a drop of 2.5%.

“The Russian economy has survived 2022,” economist Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) told The Moscow Times.

“But we cannot yet say that it survived the sanctions because they are still unfolding.”

Economists like Kluge warn that, behind the seemingly positive end-of-year statistics, there are numerous signs of darker times ahead.

And even the GDP numbers are not as rosy as they might appear.

The inclusion of sanctions-free January and February into GDP figures creates a misleading image of Russia’s real economic losses — and economists point out that Russia’s war-related economic losses are significantly higher because — before the invasion — the economy was expected to grow about 3%.

 Russia’s Economy in 2022 Sophia Sandurskaya / Moskva News Agency
Sophia Sandurskaya / Moskva News Agency

Even a contraction of 3% is a “colossal recession given that all world economies were expected to grow by 3% or 4% after the coronavirus pandemic,” economist Oleg Itskhoki said in a recent YouTube stream hosted by Russian journalist Yevgenia Albats.

According to Kluge, before the war, Russia’s economy was expected to grow up to 4% between February and December. Instead, it has declined 6% in that time.

This means Western sanctions “basically shrunk Russia’s economy by 10%,” he said.

In comparison, the Russian GDP contracted 7.8% during the 2009 global economic crisis.

Despite the huge economic losses, experts disagree over how Russia managed to avoid an even larger economic contraction.

Many doomsday predictions for Russia’s economy were based on assumptions that the country would face a banking crisis, according to economists interviewed by media outlet Meduza. No banking crisis, however, emerged.

The Russian economy has also been buoyed by record energy expert revenues as prices for commodities, including oil and gas, shot up in the wake of the invasion.

Russia raked in about $158 billion in energy exports in the first six months of the invasion of Ukraine, according to the Finland-based Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

Denis Voronin / Moskva News Agency

In March and April, Russia even set new records for oil and gas revenues.

But the West is increasingly focused on cutting this lifeline for Russia — and the European Union last month banned seaborne deliveries of Russian crude and imposed an oil price cap.

Russia’s maritime oil exports fell 22% in December after the introduction of the embargo, according to figures from commodities-data firm Kpler cited by The Wall Street Journal.

“Russia is heading into the new year without this big cushion, without the European market for gas exports, with much lower oil prices and lower oil export volumes,” said Kruge.

“This is going to be a big problem.”

Falling gas and oil exports are expected to weaken Russia’s currency — and the ruble has lost 13% against the U.S. dollar since the imposition of the price cap.

This trend is likely to continue, according to Kruge.

“The ruble will weaken and it will lead to even more inflation in Russia. This is also becoming a political problem,” said the SWP’s economist.

Annual inflation in Russia last year is expected to hit 12%.

Other consequences of the war, including the exodus of over 1,000 foreign companies and Western sanctions on exports to Russia, are also likely to have a more gradual impact.

“Many companies will lose access to Western technology, software and machinery,” said economist Kruge. “This is like a very slow erosion of productivity.”

Nevertheless, different sectors of the Russian economy have fared very differently, with some suffering particularly badly — while others thrived.

One of the worst performing has been car manufacturing, with Russian auto sales set to finish 2022 at 660,000 units — a 60% year-on-year decline.

On the other hand, 2022 was a successful year for agriculture, which is projected to record overall growth of at least 4%.

Russia’s agricultural sector in 2022 will “be the brightest spot of the rotting Russian economy,” said Andrey Sizov, managing director of SovEcon, an agricultural research firm focused on the Black Sea region.

The bumper result for Russian farmers was aided by near-perfect weather conditions, but Sizov warned Russia’s Economy in 2022 was likely an exception.

“Over three to five years we will see stagnation in the crop farming sector and possibly even a fall of production unless something changes,” Sizov told The Moscow Times.

Sophia Sandurskaya / Moskva News Agency

Such slow and steady decline in the coming years looks set to be replicated to varying extents all over Russia’s Economy in 2022.

Economist Itskhoki said that the Russian economy will shrink up to 5% in 2023, while others believe the contraction will be even bigger.

Alfa Bank’s chief economist, Natalia Orlova, has said that it will contract 6.5% on the back of falling consumer demand, lower investment and loss of export potential.

But political uncertainty and the unpredictability of military events in Ukraine mean that any predictions could change at a moment’s notice. .

“The economy is unlikely to be the main source of news in 2023,” Itskhoki said earlier this month.

“It’s difficult to imagine the war could last another 10 months and not bring about a cataclysm.”

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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