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What the Iowa caucuses could mean for Donald Trump

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DES MOINES, Iowa –

Voting is set to begin Monday night in icy Iowa as former U.S. president Donald Trump eyes a victory that would send a resounding message that neither life-threatening cold nor life-changing legal trouble can slow his march toward the Republican Party’s 2024 nomination.

The Iowa caucuses, which are the opening contest in the months-long Republican presidential primary process, begin at 8 p.m. EST. Caucus participants will gather inside more than 750 schools, churches and community centres to debate their options, in some cases for hours, before casting secret ballots.

While Trump projects confidence, his one-time chief rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is fighting for his political survival in a make-or-break race for second place. Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, the only woman in the race, stands in DeSantis’ way. The two have competed aggressively in recent weeks to emerge as the clear alternative to the former president, who has alienated many Americans and could end up being a convicted felon by year’s end.

“With our situation in this country right now, to me, the only candidate is Trump. … He won’t back down,” said 71-year-old Vicki Cannon, of Ankeny, as she waited Monday to hear Donald Trump Jr. campaign on his father’s behalf. “I just feel the only one that can get us out — I’m just sad it’s only going to be for four years — is Trump. Even if people don’t like him because of the way he talks sometimes, you know, he was a good president.”

On the issues, those voting Monday have a greater desire to focus on cultural matters like immigration than the health of the U.S. economy, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 1,500 people who said they planned to take part in Monday’s caucuses in Iowa.

Their message to GOP candidates in this first presidential contest is clear: About 9 in 10 want an upheaval or substantial change in how the U.S. government operates. Many expressed skepticism about the government’s legal system and the integrity of American elections, evidence of the sway that Trump still holds on a sizable share of the Republican Party.

Polls suggest Trump entered Monday with a massive lead in Iowa as Haley and DeSantis dueled for a distant second.

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson are also on the ballot in Iowa, as is former New Jersey governor. Chris Christie, who suspended his campaign last week.

With the coldest temperatures in caucus history and dangerous travel conditions in virtually every corner of the state, the campaigns are bracing for a low-turnout contest that will test the strength of their support and their organizational muscle. The final result will serve as a powerful signal for the rest of the nomination fight to determine who will face Democratic President Joe Biden in the November general election.

After Iowa, the Republican primary shifts to New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina over the coming weeks before moving into the rest of the country this spring. The ultimate nominee won’t be confirmed until the party’s national convention in July, but with big wins in the opening contests, Trump will be difficult to stop.

Trump’s political strength heading into the Iowa caucuses, which come 426 days after he launched his 2024 campaign, tells a remarkable story of a Republican Party unwilling or unable to move on from him. He lost to Biden in 2020 after fuelling near-constant chaos while in the White House, culminating with his supporters carrying out a deadly attack on the U.S. Capitol. In total, he faces 91 felony charges across four criminal cases, including two indictments for his efforts to overturn the election and a third indictment for keeping classified documents in his Florida home.

In recent weeks, Trump has increasingly echoed authoritarian leaders and framed his campaign as one of retribution. He has spoken openly about using the power of government to pursue his political enemies. He has repeatedly harnessed rhetoric once used by Adolf Hitler to argue that immigrants entering the U.S. illegally are “poisoning the blood of our country.” And he recently shared a word cloud last week to his social media account highlighting “revenge,” “power” and “dictatorship.”

Trump’s top surrogates played up the stakes Monday.

“I truly believe that God has placed each and every one of us here at this moment, for this moment to save this country,” Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake told Trump supporters in Fort Dodge.

The final Des Moines Register/NBC News poll before the caucuses found Trump maintaining a formidable lead, supported by nearly half of likely caucusgoers, compared with 20 per cent for Haley and 16 per cent for DeSantis, who are in a close battle for second. Trump is also viewed more favourably than the other top contenders by likely caucusgoers, at 69 per cent compared with 58 per cent for DeSantis and 48 per cent for Haley.

More than 1,000 miles to the east, Biden’s campaign sought to signal strength from its Delaware headquarters.

The Democratic president’s team announced early Monday that he and the Democratic National Committee raised more than US$97 million in the last quarter of 2023 and finished the year with US$117 million in the bank. His team wants to offer a stark contrast between the two parties: While Biden is flush with cash entering 2024, facing token opposition in the Democratic primary, the Republican field has spent more than US$90 million on Iowa advertising alone, much of it designed to attack each other.

Meanwhile, Trump used his Truth Social site early Monday to knock Haley. Her campaign answered that Trump’s diatribes, some of them contradictory, prove he considers her a threat.

Haley began the day in central Iowa by encouraging some of her caucus precinct captains to “speak from the heart” as they make their statements on her behalf before votes are cast.

Trump predicted he would set a modern-day Republican caucus record with a margin-of-victory exceeding the nearly 13-percentage-point victory that Bob Dole earned in 1988. Still, he played down expectations that he would eclipse 50 per cent, preempting any criticism that a majority of Republican voters might prefer someone else.

The temperature in parts of Iowa on Monday could dip as low as -14 F (-26 C) while snowdrifts from Friday’s blizzard still make travel hazardous across the state.

Forecasters warned that “dangerously cold wind chills” as low as 45 degrees below 0 F were possible through noon Tuesday. The conditions, according to the National Weather Service, could lead to “frostbite and hypothermia in a matter of minutes if not properly dressed for the conditions.”

The winter weather, intimidating even for Iowa, will make an already unrepresentative process even less representative. Only a tiny portion of the participants will be voters of color, given Iowa’s overwhelmingly white population, a fact that helped persuade Democrats to shift their opening primary contest to South Carolina this year.

Iowa’s caucuses are also playing out on Martin Luther King Day, a federal holiday.

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Peoples reported from Washington. Beaumont reported from Indianola, Iowa, and Fingerhut reported from Fort Dodge, Iowa. Associated Press writers Jill Colvin in Des Moines, Iowa, Adriana Gomez Licon in Council Bluffs, Iowa, and Bill Barrow in Atlanta contributed to this report.

 

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Youri Chassin quits CAQ to sit as Independent, second member to leave this month

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Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.

He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.

In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.

Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.

He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.

Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.

He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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‘I’m not going to listen to you’: Singh responds to Poilievre’s vote challenge

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MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.

“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.

“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”

Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”

“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.

“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”

While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.

“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.

Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.

Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.

“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.

New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.

The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.

It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.

While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.

Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.

He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.

Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.

The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.

With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.

The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.

The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Social media comments blocked: Montreal mayor says she won’t accept vulgar slurs

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Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.

She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.

Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.

They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.

However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.

Her statement on X is closed to comments.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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