The new year brings new opportunities for Premier Doug Ford to try to move past the controversies that plagued his government in 2023.
The Greenbelt scandal dominated Ontario politics for much of last year. Although Ford’s government has reversed its move to give select developers the right to build housing in the protected area (potentially boosting their land values by $8.3 billion), the RCMP is investigating how it all happened.
If that investigation results in criminal charges against anyone connected to the government, the Greenbelt will again become front and centre on the provincial political scene.
In 2024, Ford will be facing a new political threat in the form of newly elected Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie. She in turn will be battling it out with newish NDP leader Marit Stiles to position themselves as best placed to defeat Ford in the 2026 election.
As Ford’s government heads toward the midpoint of its mandate, the PCs will be striving for progress on the promises they made in the 2022 election campaign under the “Get It Done” slogan, starting with a Get-It-Done-themed party policy conference in February.
To get a flavour for what to expect in Ontario politics in 2024, CBC News interviewed strategists linked to each of the three main parties:
Mitch Heimpel, a former senior staffer in Ford’s PC government, now policy director of the public affairs firm Enterprise Canada
Jordan Leichnitz, a former senior staffer for the federal New Democrats, now the Canada program manager of Freidrich Ebert Stiftung, a German social democratic foundation.
Anushka Kurian, a strategist for the federal and provincial Liberals and consultant with McMillan Vantage Policy Group.
Housing
All three strategists agree that housing will be an issue that’s top of mind for voters and politicians in 2024. The government is heading into the third year of its 10-year pledge for 1.5 million homes to be built in Ontario, but the pace of new home construction starts so far remains far slower than what it will take to hit that target.
“There are reasons for that [pace] that aren’t in the government’s control, there’s a labour shortage, interest rates make it more difficult to finance construction,” Heimpel said.
The number of new housing construction starts in Ontario in 2022 and 2023 remained well below the pace required to hit the government’s 10-year target of 1.5 million homes. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)
“But they have to show progress on housing, especially now that the federal government is finally showing progress,” he said. “They’ve really got to get out of the mud on housing.”
“They’re going to need to find a new way to tackle that problem if they want to have some success on it in the coming year,” Leichnitz said.
She says Ford’s push to build housing in the Greenbelt fuelled a perception among voters that he’s making decisions to benefit wealthy friends and insiders. Ford’s ability to counter that perception will be crucial for his political future.
Health care
The province continues to face unprecedented staffing challenges in the health care sector, with thousands of nurses leaving the profession and more than two million Ontarians going without a family doctor.
The government has made various moves to try to alleviate the shortages — including opening more medical school spots, making it easier to get a nursing degree, and clearing some of the hurdles for foreign-trained health professionals to get work in Ontario.
The Ford government is trying to alleviate staffing shortages in the health sector by opening more medical school spots, making it easier to get a nursing degree, and clearing some hurdles for foreign-trained health professionals to get work in Ontario. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)
One of the government’s key plans for the health system in 2024 is to expand the number and scope of surgeries conducted outside of hospitals, including hip and knee replacements, a move that could see more OHIP-covered procedures done in privately owned clinics.
Leichnitz expects the New Democrats to make a strong push on health-care issues in the new year.
“You will see Marit Stiles out there working very hard to define the NDP as the party of health care, and tackling things like unspent money in the health system, how wait times have skyrocketed and of course, private delivery of health care,” she said.
Bonnie Crombie’s challenges
Crombie’s presence as Liberal leader “is going to completely change the dynamics of Ontario politics in 2024,” said Kurian.
“The Conservatives are very well aware that she could pose a real existential threat to Doug Ford in 2026,” she said, pointing out the PCs were quick to invest in attack ads trying to define Crombie as elitist and out of touch, including television ads that aired during NFL games.
Bonnie Crombie became the new leader of the Ontario Liberal party in December 2023. (Patrick Morrell/CBC)
“You don’t spend that much money on opposition messaging unless you do see somebody as a threat,” Kurian said.
Crombie’s own challenges will include trying to find ways to boost her profile among voters when her Liberal party is nowhere near as flush with cash as the PCs.
While her election as leader gave the Liberals a nudge upward in polls, the bump so far appears to be nowhere near enough to overtake Ford’s party.
She’ll also have work to do to ensure that left-leaning Liberal supporters don’t move their support to the NDP over concerns that Crombie will shift the party to the right.
Marit Stiles’ challenges
“Marit Stiles has a treasure trove of evidence that Bonnie Crombie isn’t a real progressive, and if she spends two years beating [Crombie] over the head with that, she’s got a pretty good chance of limiting the Liberal leader’s potential,” said Heimpel.
One advantage that Stiles will maintain over Crombie for the foreseeable future: a seat in the Legislature and the opportunity for free publicity that comes with it, through challenging the government in question period.
Marit Stiles was named new leader of the Ontario NDP in February 2023. She is pictured speaking to reporters during a news conference at Queen’s Park in September. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)
Stiles faced some rumblings of discontent within her party in 2023 over expelling Hamilton Centre MPP Sarah Jama for what the leader called “unilateral actions that have undermined our collective work.”
There’s an argument to be made that Stiles and her party would have suffered greater political damage among the wider electorate had Jama remained a New Democrat following her controversial comments on the Hamas attack against Israel and the Israeli military response in Gaza.
There is of course a fourth leader of an Ontario political party who merits a mention.
Mike Schreiner will double the size of his Green Party caucus in 2024, when the newly elected Aislinn Clancy joins him in the Legislature as the MPP for Kitchener Centre. However, the Greens’ influence on the Ontario political scene remains limited: the party took just six per cent of the popular vote in the last election.
Other issues to watch for in 2024
One of the first financial decisions the government will need to make in the new year is whether to boost funding for universities and colleges and allow a tuition increase, as recommended by a provincially-appointed panel in the fall.
The panel said the province’s long-running freeze on per-student funding, plus the Ford government’s 2019 move to cut and then freeze tuition fees have put the financial sustainability of Ontario’s post-secondary sector at serious risk.
Without a doubt, affordability will remain a top concern for Ontarians in 2024. Much will depend on how the intricate dance between economic growth, inflation, interest rates and employees’ push for higher wages plays out over the course of the year.
The redevelopment of Ontario Place will be in the spotlight in the coming year. While Toronto mayor Olivia Chow has thrown in the towel in her battle against plans for a luxury spa on the site, the citizens group Ontario Place For All has an early January court date in its bid for an injunction to stop work on the project.
You’ll also hear more in 2024 about the government’s plans to boost the supply of electricity to meet an expected surge in demand. The province intends to expand the Darlington and Bruce nuclear plants and faces an imminent decision about whether to refurbish the Pickering nuclear generating station.
Meanwhile, Ontario is pushing ahead with developing small modular reactors, adding new gas-fired power plants, and procuring new renewable energy projects. The latter is a U-turn from the Ford’s government’s first year in power, when it scrapped hundreds of wind and solar energy projects, at a cost of $230 million.
That’s just a fraction of the nearly $30 billion in taxpayer money the government has spent subsidizing hydro bills over the past five years.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is promising a directive banning “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls” if re-elected, a move the NDP’s Carla Beck says weaponizes vulnerable kids.
Moe made the pledge Thursday at a campaign stop in Regina. He said it was in response to a complaint that two biological males had changed for gym class with girls at a school in southeast Saskatchewan.
He said the ban would be his first order of business if he’s voted again as premier on Oct. 28.
It was not previously included in his party’s campaign platform document.
“I’ll be very clear, there will be a directive that would come from the minister of education that would say that biological boys will not be in the change room with biological girls,” Moe said.
He added school divisions should already have change room policies, but a provincial directive would ensure all have the rule in place.
Asked about the rights of gender-diverse youth, Moe said other children also have rights.
“What about the rights of all the other girls that are changing in that very change room? They have rights as well,” he said, followed by cheers and claps.
The complaint was made at a school with the Prairie Valley School Division. The division said in a statement it doesn’t comment on specific situations that could jeopardize student privacy and safety.
“We believe all students should have the opportunity to learn and grow in a safe and welcoming learning environment,” it said.
“Our policies and procedures align with the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the Canadian Human Rights Act and the Saskatchewan Human Rights Code.”
Asked about Moe’s proposal, Beck said it would make vulnerable kids more vulnerable.
Moe is desperate to stoke fear and division after having a bad night during Wednesday’s televised leaders’ debate, she said.
“Saskatchewan people, when we’re at our best, are people that come together and deliver results, not divisive, ugly politics like we’ve seen time and again from Scott Moe and the Sask. Party,” Beck said.
“If you see leaders holding so much power choosing to punch down on vulnerable kids, that tells you everything you need to know about them.”
Beck said voters have more pressing education issues on their minds, including the need for smaller classrooms, more teaching staff and increased supports for students.
People also want better health care and to be able to afford gas and groceries, she added.
“We don’t have to agree to understand Saskatchewan people deserve better,” Beck said.
The Saskatchewan Party government passed legislation last year that requires parents consent to children under 16 using different names or pronouns at school.
The law has faced backlash from some LGBTQ+ advocates, who argue it violates Charter rights and could cause teachers to out or misgender children.
Beck has said if elected her party would repeal that legislation.
Heather Kuttai, a former commissioner with the Saskatchewan Human Rights Commission who resigned last year in protest of the law, said Moe is trying to sway right-wing voters.
She said a change room directive would put more pressure on teachers who already don’t have enough educational support.
“It sounds like desperation to me,” she said.
“It sounds like Scott Moe is nervous about the election and is turning to homophobic and transphobic rhetoric to appeal to far-right voters.
“It’s divisive politics, which is a shame.”
She said she worries about the future of gender-affirming care in a province that once led in human rights.
“We’re the kind of people who dig each other out of snowbanks and not spew hatred about each other,” she said. “At least that’s what I want to still believe.”
Also Thursday, two former Saskatchewan Party government members announced they’re endorsing Beck — Mark Docherty, who retired last year and was a Speaker, and Glen Hart, who retired in 2020.
Ian Hanna, a speech writer and senior political adviser to former Saskatchewan Party premier Brad Wall, also endorsed Beck.
Earlier in the campaign, Beck received support from former Speaker Randy Weekes, who quit the Saskatchewan Party earlier this year after accusing caucus members of bullying.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan‘s provincial election is on Oct. 28. Here’s a look at some of the campaign promises made by the two major parties:
Saskatchewan Party
— Continue withholding federal carbon levy payments to Ottawa on natural gas until the end of 2025.
— Reduce personal income tax rates over four years; a family of four would save $3,400.
— Double the Active Families Benefit to $300 per child per year and the benefit for children with disabilities to $400 a year.
— Direct all school divisions to ban “biological boys” from girls’ change rooms in schools.
— Increase the First-Time Homebuyers Tax Credit to $15,000 from $10,000.
— Reintroduce the Home Renovation Tax Credit, allowing homeowners to claim up to $4,000 in renovation costs on their income taxes; seniors could claim up to $5,000.
— Extend coverage for insulin pumps and diabetes supplies to seniors and young adults
— Provide a 50 per cent refundable tax credit — up to $10,000 — to help cover the cost of a first fertility treatment.
— Hire 100 new municipal officers and 70 more officers with the Saskatchewan Marshals Service.
— Amend legislation to provide police with more authority to address intoxication, vandalism and disturbances on public property.
— Platform cost of $1.2 billion, with deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in 2027.
—
NDP
— Pause the 15-cent-a-litre gas tax for six months, saving an average family about $350.
— Remove the provincial sales tax from children’s clothes and ready-to-eat grocery items like rotisserie chickens and granola bars.
— Pass legislation to limit how often and how much landlords can raise rent.
— Repeal the law that requires parental consent when children under 16 want to change their names or pronouns at school.
— Launch a provincewide school nutrition program.
— Build more schools and reduce classroom sizes.
— Hire 800 front-line health-care workers in areas most in need.
— Launch an accountability commission to investigate cost overruns for government projects.
— Scrap the marshals service.
— Hire 100 Mounties and expand detox services.
— Platform cost of $3.5 billion, with small deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in the fourth year.
—
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct .17, 2024.
VANCOUVER – More than a million British Columbians have already cast their provincial election ballots, smashing the advance voting record ahead of what weather forecasters say will be a rain-drenched election day in much of B.C., with snow also predicted for the north.
Elections BC said Thursday that 1,001,331 people had cast ballots in six days of advance voting, easily breaking a record set during the pandemic election four years ago.
More than 28 per cent of all registered electors have voted, potentially putting the province on track for a big final turnout on Saturday.
“It reflects what I believe, which is this election is critically important for the future of our province,” New Democrat Leader David Eby said Thursday at a news conference in Vancouver. “I understand why British Columbians are out in numbers. We haven’t seen questions like this on the ballot in a generation.”
He said voters are faced with the choice of supporting his party’s plans to improve affordability, public health care and education, while the B.C. Conservatives, led by John Rustad, are proposing to cut services and are fielding candidates who support conspiracy theories about the COVID-19 pandemic and espouse racist views.
Rustad held no public availabilities on Thursday.
Elections BC said the record advance vote tally includes about 223,000 people who voted on the final day of advance voting Wednesday, the last day of advance polls, shattering the one-day record set on Tuesday by more than 40,000 votes.
The previous record for advance voting in a B.C. election was set in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, when about 670,000 people voted early, representing about 19 per cent of registered voters.
Some ridings have now seen turnout of more than 35 per cent, including in NDP Leader David Eby’s Vancouver-Point Grey riding where 36.5 per cent of all electors have voted.
There has also been big turnout in some Vancouver Island ridings, including Oak Bay-Gordon Head, where 39 per cent of electors have voted, and Victoria-Beacon Hill, where Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau is running, with 37.2 per cent.
Advance voter turnout in Rustad’s riding of Nechako Lakes was 30.5 per cent.
Total turnout in 2020 was 54 per cent, down from about 61 per cent in 2017.
Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University of British Columbia, said many factors are at play in the advance voter turnout.
“If you have an early option, if you have an option where there are fewer crowds, fewer lineups that you have to deal with, then that’s going to be a much more desirable option,” said Prest.
“So, having the possibility of voting across multiple advanced voting days is something that more people are looking to as a way to avoid last-minute lineups or heavy weather.”
Voters along the south coast of British Columbia who have not cast their ballots yet will have to contend with heavy rain and high winds from an incoming atmospheric river weather system on election day.
Environment Canada said the weather system will bring prolonged heavy rain to Metro Vancouver, the Sunshine Coast, Fraser Valley, Howe Sound, Whistler and Vancouver Island starting Friday.
Eby said the forecast of an atmospheric weather storm on election day will become a “ballot question” for some voters who are concerned about the approaches the parties have towards addressing climate change.
But he said he is confident people will not let the storm deter them from voting.
“I know British Columbians are tough and they’re not going to let even an atmospheric river stop them from voting,” said Eby.
In northern B.C., heavy snow is in the forecast starting Friday and through to Saturday for areas along the Yukon boundary.
Elections BC said it will focus on ensuring it is prepared for bad weather, said Andrew Watson, senior director of communications.
“We’ve also been working with BC Hydro to make sure that they’re aware of all of our voting place locations so that they can respond quickly if there are any power outages,” he said.
Elections BC also has paper backups for all of its systems in case there is a power outage, forcing them to go through manual procedures, Watson said.
Prest said the dramatic downfall of the Official Opposition BC United Party just before the start of the campaign and voter frustration could also be contributing to the record size of the advance vote.
It’s too early to say if the province is experiencing a “renewed enthusiasm for voting,” he said.
“As a political scientist, I think it would be a good thing to see, but I’m not ready to conclude that’s what we are seeing just yet,” he said, adding, “this is one of the storylines to watch come Saturday.”
Overall turnout in B.C. elections has generally been dwindling compared with the 71.5 per cent turnout for the 1996 vote.
Adam Olsen, Green Party campaign chair, said the advance voting turnout indicates people are much more engaged in the campaign than they were in the weeks leading up to the start of the campaign in September.
“All we know so far is that people are excited to go out and vote early,” he said. “The real question will be does that voter turnout stay up throughout election night?”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
Note to readers: This is a corrected story. An earlier version said more than 180,000 voters cast their votes on Wednesday.
