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What to watch from Canada as U.S. race to midterms showdown enters final month

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WASHINGTON — Campaigning politicians say it all the time: the coming election will be the most important in a generation.

These days, amid the cultural division, political gridlock and social instability in the United States, every trip to the polls — including midway through a president’s term — feels more consequential than the last.

“I am always a bit concerned, upset, chagrined that when we have an election, the world has to worry about the outcome,” Bruce Stokes, a visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund in D.C., told a recent discussion panel.

“When we are electing a Congress or a president, that Congress and president has a disproportionate influence on what happens in the world.”

The legacy of Donald Trump has loomed large over the 2022 midterms, but so too have the initial struggles of Joe Biden, his Democratic successor. Voters gave Democrats control of Congress in 2020, but barely.

Change is in the wind for Nov. 8.

The relentless Republican march of earlier this year, initially powered by a drumbeat of high inflation, low presidential approval ratings and lingering economic uncertainty, has slowed significantly since the spring.

The Supreme Court’s stunning decision to effectively abandon federal protection for abortion rights sent shock waves down the campaign trail, energizing Democrats and mobilizing women.

Biden, too, found his stride with key legislative wins, including — with an assist from Sen. Joe Manchin — the climate, tax and health package known as the Inflation Reduction Act. It included a welcome reprieve for Canada: made-in-America tax incentives for electric vehicles were replaced with credits that would apply to EVs built north of the border, too.

But most political observers aren’t betting on a surge of Democratic support. The party in the White House has been savaged in eight of the last 10 midterm elections. With Biden’s approval rating hovering around 41 per cent, experts don’t expect that to change this year.

BALANCE OF POWER: In the House of Representatives, where every seat is up for grabs in November, Democrats occupy 221 out of 435 seats, while Republicans have 212. Two seats are currently vacant.

The Senate is divided evenly — 50 seats on each side, giving the deciding vote to Vice-President Kamala Harris. Senate rules require 60 senators to vote in favour of ending debate on most bills in order to escape a filibuster, however, which means a simple majority often isn’t enough.

Only 35 Senate seats are up for election this year, including 21 Democrats and 14 Republicans. Experts don’t see a huge swing happening, but when the Senate is evenly divided, it only takes one seat changing hands to shift the balance of power.

REDISTRICTING: Every 10 years, state legislatures redraw their congressional districts to more accurately reflect the shifting population map — a process known as redistricting. When it’s done to benefit a particular party, it’s known as gerrymandering. In the U.S. these days, the two terms are largely synonymous.

Both parties do it, but this year, more Republicans than Democrats have been holding the redistricting pen, and are likely to benefit in November. A Politico analysis of the new congressional map found Republicans having an advantage in 10 more districts than they did in 2020, compared with just one for Democrats.

DOWN-BALLOT RACES: American voters typically make multiple choices in the voting booth, electing not only senators and members of Congress but state legislators, law enforcement officials and judges as well. In an era of election denial and state governments passing abortion laws, the so-called “down-ballot” races that rarely get much media attention are more significant than ever.

Capri Cafaro, a former Ohio state senator who teaches politics at American University in Washington, D.C., said it will be important to look at secretary of state races, because they have jurisdiction over elections.

“That could really shift the dynamic on election integrity, and what is perceived as running a free and fair election, depending on who’s at the helm.”

STATES TO WATCH

Pennsylvania: Arguably the main event of the 2022 midterm season, voters in this perennial battleground state will choose between Republican celebrity TV host Dr. Mehmet Oz and Pennsylvania Lt.-Gov. John Fetterman, the hoodie-clad, plain-spoken Democrat who was sidelined by a stroke for much of the summer. This time, instead of deciding who gets the White House, Pennsylvania may decide who controls the Senate.

Ohio: J.D. Vance, the venture capitalist and author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” is one of several Trump standard-bearers in 2022, including Oz and former NFL running back Herschel Walker in Georgia. After a bruising primary and a late-day endorsement from the former president, he’s running in a state that Trump won handily in both 2016 and 2020. Thing is, he’s not winning: polls suggest Vance and Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan, a straitlaced congressman making a play for the Senate, are in a dead heat.

Georgia: The expanding franchise of celebrity first-time campaigners continues in the Peach State, where football legend Walker is doing battle with Raphael Warnock. The Georgia reverend’s run-off win the night before last year’s Jan. 6 riots on Capitol Hill made him the first Black senator from the Deep South and helped the Democrats win control of the Senate. Walker, a favourite of Trump, has been dogged by domestic abuse allegations, dubious claims about working in law enforcement and rambling, nonsensical campaign commentary. Polls suggest a close race with Warnock nursing a narrow lead in a state that requires a run-off election if neither candidate cracks the 50 per cent threshold.

Arizona: Republicans had high hopes of wresting a win away from incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly and his impeccable pedigree: the former Space Shuttle pilot, who replaced the late John McCain in 2020, is the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, who became a prominent gun control advocate after narrowly surviving an assassination attempt in 2011. But GOP candidate Blake Masters, another Trump endorsee, is lagging his big-spending Democratic rival in a campaign experts consider emblematic of the double-edged sword that is the support of the former president.

Nevada: Another toss-up, another seat Democrats are desperate to keep. Despite the glitz and glitter of its locale, this one lacks the star power of some of the other must-win races: former state attorney general Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, the incumbent Democrat, against former state attorney general Adam Laxalt, her Republican challenger. As a result, it might be the truest barometer of how key factors like inflation and gas prices, abortion and the growing influence of Hispanic voters will influence the outcome.

Wisconsin: Two-term incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson personifies the post-Trump dilemma for those Republicans loyal to the former president. Wisconsin narrowly opted for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016, then pivoted to Biden in 2020. Ironically, Johnson has proven vulnerable to Democratic efforts to use his Trump affiliations against him, depicting him as a billionaire denizen of the D.C. “swamp” who lacks the working-class bona fides of his challenger, Mandela Barnes, the state’s first Black lieutenant-governor. The Cook Political Report has the Wisconsin Senate rate “tilting” Republican; polls suggest a dead heat.

North Carolina: Another purple state that’s leaning Republican and could determine which party holds the balance of power in the Senate. Republican congressman Rep. Ted Budd is hoping to move to the upper chamber, as is former state Supreme Court justice Cheri Beasley. With Budd another Trump type who voted against certifying Joe Biden’s election win, Democrats see North Carolina as an opportunity to turn a red seat blue — and both sides are ramping up their ad spending as the campaign nears the start of the four-week sprint to the finish.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 4, 2022.

 

James McCarten, The Canadian Press

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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