This is your introduction to the concept of “LOFT,” which is at the centre of conversations NHL GMs and owners have when their team is losing and they’re considering their options to quickly get better.
Is our coach failing to get the most out of this roster, or are we suffering from LOFT?
Excuse the vulgarity, as this is primarily a hockey term used in private, but LOFT is a Lack Of [expletive] Talent.
The reason coaches are so often the first to suffer at the hands of a poor record — or in the case of the Canadiens, just underperforming expectations — is because many GMs can’t bring themselves to cop to LOFT, given that would mean the problems falls on their heads. So with Marc Bergevin and the Montreal Canadiens in the midst of a skid where they’re failing to take points off the decidedly ungood Ottawa Senators, LOFT was ruled out for the Habs, and instead Julien took the bullet.
Before I get into how changing leadership affects players and teams in the immediate future, a couple quick notes on the Habs and why we’re going to have that conversation in the first place.
The Canadiens are currently top-five in shot attempts percentage (Corsi) in the NHL and are third in the NHL in straight up shots percentage. At 5-on-5 they’ve posted some of the best stats in hockey (though we’ll consider divisional weakness here for context):
The Montreal Canadiens, who just fired their coach, are the best team in the league at 5v5 whether you look at expected goals or ACTUAL goals. They are bad on special teams, as they have been for years. Firing the head coach seems… odd. #GoHabsGopic.twitter.com/xKo4IrvNjW
Overall, of every shot taken in their games, Montreal gets some 54 per cent of them. They’re also on the positive side of the ledger in expected goals percentage (all strengths), if you’re into such measurements.
This is a team whose top four centres are Phillip Danault, Nick Suzuki, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Jake Evans, which is stable as NHL centres go, but lacking elite names. Outside of occasional healthy scratch Corey Perry, the highest single-season point output by a forward on the Canadiens, taking all of their careers together, is Tomas Tatar’s 61-point year from last season. (That’s a staggering stat for me.)
The Habs’ depth is probably the best in the North Division, and as good as some of the top teams in the NHL. But as far as top guys and game breakers go it seems to me they may suffer a bit from LOFT, and that maybe Julien was doing a pretty decent job.
There are cases on both sides of “should they or shouldn’t they have done it?” You can say the team struggled to adapt and their special teams never got better. You can argue that second part is a big deal and somewhat within the coach’s control, but you can also use it to make a pretty good LOFT argument, too. You can say goaltending undid Julien, or that the goaltending wasn’t supported by the players Julien chose to play most.
Whatever you choose to say, Julien is gone, the Habs have a winning percentage of .611 and sit in a playoff spot, and this season is far from over. I think the team itself will make the case that’s why they made the change when they did — to salvage what they see as a season of opportunity in a soft division before it gets away from them.
So as players and a team, what now?
In my experience as a player I’ve dealt with a coaching change, I’ve discussed the situation with friends in the game, and like many in media, I’ve seen how it mostly seems to play out on this side of it. A few things seem consistent:
The return to tryouts-level effort
This is a fresh start for everyone who’s had a gripe about their usage, which is usually about 80 per cent of every hockey roster. Whether it be in practice or games, Dominique Ducharme is about to see every player’s best as they try to impress for more, which is where the New Coach Bounce primarily comes from.
It’s not like guys weren’t trying — heck, you saw Montreal’s 5-on-5 results — but you’ve also watched NHL playoff hockey, too. There’s undeniably another gear players are able to reach for when they’ve got reason to. (It’s just not sustainable to play at that pace/effort for 82-plus games a season.)
Everyone on their best positional behaviour
Ducharme has been around the team and certainly already knows who’s the most/least positionally diligent of the group. But it’s the same as the effort thing — the microscope is dialled in a little bit more on players, so you can expect improved positional play in the short term.
The quiet contention (if interviews happen)
In general when there’s a new coach, that person will take the time to talk to every player individually, which is a big undertaking. That’s the time for players to make their case for how they feel they’re being under-utilized and how they could be better. It’s with that in mind that a lot of the lineup shuffling happens, as players who make strong cases for different roles are occasionally convincing.
Tactical changes
When the new hire is internal, we don’t often see much here. If Ducharme wanted to do much differently, he was still on the coaching staff and would’ve said his piece. With the Habs you’ll be looking at tweaks, not an overhaul.
The return to reality
And here’s why I started this by talking about LOFT. After the initial five or six games of effort a new coach gets from his players, and his slightly altered vision of the player pecking order begins to crystallize, truth returns: as a team, you generally are what you are.
I’ve made the case that a bad coach can cost his team a half-dozen wins over a full season (maybe a couple more), and that maybe a good coach can push things that far in the opposite direction. That adds up to a pretty big swing, if you go from a bad coach to a good one.
The problem for the Canadiens is that Julien is objectively not a bad coach, and Ducharme was on his coaching staff, so how different can we expect him to be? The potential for an increase in wins and losses might not be more than a few.
Mostly the Habs are what they are, and the most insurmountable worry is that “what they are” includes that pesky old LOFT issue.
So are the Canadiens afflicted with that curse? Bergevin sure didn’t think so. The only way the Habs will be proven correct is with a quick and lasting turnaround.
Without one, we know where the spotlight turns next.
TORONTO – Reigning PWHL MVP and scoring champ Natalie Spooner will miss the start of the regular season for the Toronto Sceptres, general manager Gina Kingsbury announced Tuesday on the first day of training camp.
The 33-year-old Spooner had knee surgery on her left anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) after she was checked into the boards by Minnesota’s Grace Zumwinkle in Game 3 of their best-of-five semifinal series on May 13.
She had a goal and an assist in three playoff games but did not finish the series. Toronto was up 2-1 in the semifinal at that time and eventually fell 3-2 in the series.
Spooner led the PWHL with 27 points in 24 games. Her 20 goals, including five game-winners, were nine more than the closest skater.
Kingsbury said there is no timeline, as the team wants the Toronto native at 100 per cent, but added that “she is doing really well” in her recovery.
The Sceptres open the PWHL season on Nov. 30 when they host the Boston Fleet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.
LAHORE, Pakistan (AP) — A top official of the Pakistan Cricket Board declined Friday to confirm media reports that India has decided against playing any games in host Pakistan during next year’s Champions Trophy.
“My view is if there’s any problems, they (India) should tell us in writing,” PCB chairman Mohsin Naqvi told reporters in Lahore. “I’ll share that with the media as well as with the government as soon as I get such a letter.”
Indian media reported Friday that the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has communicated its concerns to all the Champions Trophy stakeholders, including the PCB, over the Feb. 19-March 9 tournament and would not play in arch-rival Pakistan.
The Times of India said that “Dubai is a strong candidate to host the fixtures involving the Men in Blue” for the 50-over tournament.
Such a solution would see Pakistan having to travel to a neutral venue to play India in a group match, with another potential meeting later in the tournament if both teams advanced from their group. The final is scheduled for March 9 in Pakistan with the specific venue not yet decided.
“Our stance is clear,” Naqvi said. “They need to give us in writing any objections they may have. Until now, no discussion of the hybrid model has happened, nor are we prepared to accept one.”
Political tensions have stopped bilateral cricket between the two nations since 2008 and they have competed in only multi-nation tournaments, including ICC World Cups.
“Cricket should be free of politics,” Naqvi said. “Any sport should not be entangled with politics. Our preparations for the Champions Trophy will continue unabated, and this will be a successful event.”
The PCB has already spent millions of dollars on the upgrade of stadiums in Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi which are due to host 15 Champions Trophy games. Naqvi hoped all the three stadiums will be ready over the next two months.
“Almost every country wants the Champions Trophy to be played here (in Pakistan),” Naqvi said. “I don’t think anyone should make this a political matter, and I don’t expect they will. I expect the tournament will be held at the home of the official hosts.”
Eight countries – Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, England, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan – are due to compete in the tournament, the schedule of which is yet to be announced by the International Cricket Council.
“Normally the ICC announces the schedule of any major tournament 100 days before the event, and I hope they will announce it very soon,” Naqvi said.
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Ottawa‘s Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe of New Zealand are through to the doubles final at the WTA Finals after a 7-6 (7), 6-1 victory over Nicole Melichar-Martinez of the United States and Australia’s Ellen Perez in semifinal action Friday.
Dabrowski and Routliffe won a hard-fought first set against serve when Routliffe’s quick reaction at the net to defend a Perez shot gave the duo set point, causing Perez to throw down her racket in frustration.
The second seeds then cruised through the second set, winning match point on serve when Melichar-Martinez couldn’t handle Routliffe’s shot.
The showdown was a rematch of last year’s semifinal, which Melichar-Martinez and Perez won in a super tiebreak.
Dabrowski and Routliffe will face the winner of a match between Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend, and Hao-Ching Chan and Veronika Kudermetova in the final on Saturday.
Dabrowski is aiming to become the first Canadian to win a WTA Finals title.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
