This is your introduction to the concept of “LOFT,” which is at the centre of conversations NHL GMs and owners have when their team is losing and they’re considering their options to quickly get better.
Is our coach failing to get the most out of this roster, or are we suffering from LOFT?
Excuse the vulgarity, as this is primarily a hockey term used in private, but LOFT is a Lack Of [expletive] Talent.
The reason coaches are so often the first to suffer at the hands of a poor record — or in the case of the Canadiens, just underperforming expectations — is because many GMs can’t bring themselves to cop to LOFT, given that would mean the problems falls on their heads. So with Marc Bergevin and the Montreal Canadiens in the midst of a skid where they’re failing to take points off the decidedly ungood Ottawa Senators, LOFT was ruled out for the Habs, and instead Julien took the bullet.
Before I get into how changing leadership affects players and teams in the immediate future, a couple quick notes on the Habs and why we’re going to have that conversation in the first place.
The Canadiens are currently top-five in shot attempts percentage (Corsi) in the NHL and are third in the NHL in straight up shots percentage. At 5-on-5 they’ve posted some of the best stats in hockey (though we’ll consider divisional weakness here for context):
The Montreal Canadiens, who just fired their coach, are the best team in the league at 5v5 whether you look at expected goals or ACTUAL goals. They are bad on special teams, as they have been for years. Firing the head coach seems… odd. #GoHabsGopic.twitter.com/xKo4IrvNjW
Overall, of every shot taken in their games, Montreal gets some 54 per cent of them. They’re also on the positive side of the ledger in expected goals percentage (all strengths), if you’re into such measurements.
This is a team whose top four centres are Phillip Danault, Nick Suzuki, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Jake Evans, which is stable as NHL centres go, but lacking elite names. Outside of occasional healthy scratch Corey Perry, the highest single-season point output by a forward on the Canadiens, taking all of their careers together, is Tomas Tatar’s 61-point year from last season. (That’s a staggering stat for me.)
The Habs’ depth is probably the best in the North Division, and as good as some of the top teams in the NHL. But as far as top guys and game breakers go it seems to me they may suffer a bit from LOFT, and that maybe Julien was doing a pretty decent job.
There are cases on both sides of “should they or shouldn’t they have done it?” You can say the team struggled to adapt and their special teams never got better. You can argue that second part is a big deal and somewhat within the coach’s control, but you can also use it to make a pretty good LOFT argument, too. You can say goaltending undid Julien, or that the goaltending wasn’t supported by the players Julien chose to play most.
Whatever you choose to say, Julien is gone, the Habs have a winning percentage of .611 and sit in a playoff spot, and this season is far from over. I think the team itself will make the case that’s why they made the change when they did — to salvage what they see as a season of opportunity in a soft division before it gets away from them.
So as players and a team, what now?
In my experience as a player I’ve dealt with a coaching change, I’ve discussed the situation with friends in the game, and like many in media, I’ve seen how it mostly seems to play out on this side of it. A few things seem consistent:
The return to tryouts-level effort
This is a fresh start for everyone who’s had a gripe about their usage, which is usually about 80 per cent of every hockey roster. Whether it be in practice or games, Dominique Ducharme is about to see every player’s best as they try to impress for more, which is where the New Coach Bounce primarily comes from.
It’s not like guys weren’t trying — heck, you saw Montreal’s 5-on-5 results — but you’ve also watched NHL playoff hockey, too. There’s undeniably another gear players are able to reach for when they’ve got reason to. (It’s just not sustainable to play at that pace/effort for 82-plus games a season.)
Everyone on their best positional behaviour
Ducharme has been around the team and certainly already knows who’s the most/least positionally diligent of the group. But it’s the same as the effort thing — the microscope is dialled in a little bit more on players, so you can expect improved positional play in the short term.
The quiet contention (if interviews happen)
In general when there’s a new coach, that person will take the time to talk to every player individually, which is a big undertaking. That’s the time for players to make their case for how they feel they’re being under-utilized and how they could be better. It’s with that in mind that a lot of the lineup shuffling happens, as players who make strong cases for different roles are occasionally convincing.
Tactical changes
When the new hire is internal, we don’t often see much here. If Ducharme wanted to do much differently, he was still on the coaching staff and would’ve said his piece. With the Habs you’ll be looking at tweaks, not an overhaul.
The return to reality
And here’s why I started this by talking about LOFT. After the initial five or six games of effort a new coach gets from his players, and his slightly altered vision of the player pecking order begins to crystallize, truth returns: as a team, you generally are what you are.
I’ve made the case that a bad coach can cost his team a half-dozen wins over a full season (maybe a couple more), and that maybe a good coach can push things that far in the opposite direction. That adds up to a pretty big swing, if you go from a bad coach to a good one.
The problem for the Canadiens is that Julien is objectively not a bad coach, and Ducharme was on his coaching staff, so how different can we expect him to be? The potential for an increase in wins and losses might not be more than a few.
Mostly the Habs are what they are, and the most insurmountable worry is that “what they are” includes that pesky old LOFT issue.
So are the Canadiens afflicted with that curse? Bergevin sure didn’t think so. The only way the Habs will be proven correct is with a quick and lasting turnaround.
Without one, we know where the spotlight turns next.
GUADALAJARA, Mexico – Canada’s Marina Stakusic fell 6-4, 6-3 to Poland’s Magdalena Frech in the quarterfinals of the Guadalajara Open tennis tournament on Friday.
The 19-year-old from Mississauga, Ont., won 61 per cent of her first-serve points and broke on just one of her six opportunities.
Stakusic had upset top-seeded Jelena Ostapenko of Latvia 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 (0) on Thursday night to advance.
In the opening round, Stakusic defeated Slovakia’s Anna Karolína Schmiedlová 6-2, 6-4 on Tuesday.
The fifth-seeded Frech won 62 per cent of her first-serve points and converted on three of her nine break point opportunities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Alejandro Kirk’s long single with the bases loaded provided the Toronto Blue Jays with a walk-off 4-3 win in the 11th inning of their series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday.
With the Cardinals outfield in, Kirk drove a shot off the base of the left-field wall to give the Blue Jays (70-78) their fourth win in 11 outings and halt the Cardinals’ (74-73) two-game win streak before 30,380 at Rogers Centre.
Kirk enjoyed a two-hit, two-RBI outing.
Erik Swanson (2-2) pitched a perfect 11th inning for the win, while Cardinals reliever Ryan Fernandez (1-5) took the loss.
Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman enjoyed a seven-inning, 104-pitch outing. He surrendered his two runs on nine hits and two walks and fanned only two Cardinals.
He gave way to reliever Genesis Cabrera, who gave up a one-out homer to Thomas Saggese, his first in 2024, that tied the game in the eighth.
The Cardinals started swiftly with four straight singles to open the game. But they exited the first inning with only two runs on an RBI single to centre from Nolan Arendao and a fielder’s choice from Saggese.
Gausman required 28 pitches to escape the first inning but settled down to allow his teammates to snatch the lead in the fourth.
He also deftly pitched out of threats from the visitors in the fifth, sixth and seventh thanks to some solid defence, including Will Wagner’s diving stop, which led to a double play to end the fifth inning.
George Springer led off with a walk and stole second base. He advanced to third on Nathan Lukes’s single and scored when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. knocked in his 95th run with a double off the left-field wall.
Lukes scored on a sacrifice fly to left field from Spencer Horwitz. Guerrero touched home on Kirk’s two-out single to right.
In the ninth, Guerrero made a critical diving catch on an Arenado grounder to throw out the Cardinals’ infielder, with reliever Tommy Nance covering first. The defensive gem ended the inning with a runner on second base.
St. Louis starter Erick Fedde faced the minimum night batters in the first three innings thanks to a pair of double plays. He lasted five innings, giving up three runs on six hits and a walk with three strikeouts.
ON DECK
Toronto ace Jose Berrios (15-9) will start the second of the three-game series on Saturday. He has a six-game win streak.
The Cardinals will counter with righty Kyle Gibson (8-6).
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
CALGARY – Mired in their first four-game losing skid in 20 years, the Calgary Stampeders are going back to Jake Maier at quarterback on Saturday after he was benched for a game.
It won’t be an easy assignment.
Visiting McMahon Stadium are the Eastern Conference-leading Montreal Alouettes (10-2) who own the CFL’s best record. The Stampeders (4-8) have fallen to last in the Western Conference.
“Six games is plenty of time, but also it is just six games,” said Maier. “We’ve got to be able to get on the right track.”
Calgary is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2004.
“I do still believe in this team,” said Stampeders’ head coach and general manager Dave Dickenson. “I want to see improvement, though. I want to see guys on a weekly basis elevating their game, and we haven’t been doing that.”
Maier is one of the guys under the microscope. Two weeks ago, the second-year starter threw four interceptions in a 35-20 home loss to the Edmonton Elks.
After his replacement, rookie Logan Bonner, threw five picks in last week’s 37-16 loss to the Elks in Edmonton, the football is back in Maier’s hands.
“Any time you fail or something doesn’t go your way in life, does it stink in the moment? Yeah. But then the days go on and you learn things about yourself and you learn how to prepare a little bit better,” said Maier. “It makes you mentally tougher.”
Dickenson wants to see his quarterback making better decisions with the football.
“Things are going to happen, interceptions will happen, but try to take calculated risks, rather than just putting the ball up there and hoping that we catch it,” said Dickenson.
A former quarterback himself, he knows the importance of that vital position.
“You cannot win without good quarterback play,” Dickenson said. “You’ve got to be able to make some plays — off-schedule plays, move-around plays, plays that break down, plays that aren’t designed perfectly, but somehow you found the right guy, and then those big throws where you’re taking that hit.”
But it’s going to take a team effort, and that includes the club’s receiving corp.
“We always have to band together because we need everything to go right for our receivers to get the ball,” said Nik Lewis, the Stampeders’ receivers coach. “The running back has to pick up the blitz, the o-line has to block, the quarterback has to make the right reads, and then give us a catchable ball.”
Lewis brings a unique perspective to this season’s frustrations as he was a 22-year-old rookie in Calgary in 2004 when the Stamps went 4-14 under coach Matt Dunigan. They turned it around the next season and haven’t missed the playoffs since.”
“Thinking back and just looking at it, there’s just got to be an ultimate belief that you can get it done. Look at Montreal, they were 6-7 last year and they’ve gone 18-2 since then,” said Lewis.
Montreal is also looking to rebound from a 37-23 loss to the B.C. Lions last week. But for head coach Jason Maas, he says his team’s mindset doesn’t change, regardless of what happened the previous week.
“Last year when we went through a four-game losing streak, you couldn’t tell if we were on a four-game winning streak or a four-game losing streak by the way the guys were in the building, the way we prepared, the type of work ethic we have,” said Maas. “All our standards are set, so that’s all we focus on.”
While they may have already clinched a playoff spot, Alouettes’ quarterback Cody Fajardo says this closing stretch remains critical because they want to finish the season strong, just like last year when they won their final five regular-season games before ultimately winning the Grey Cup.
“It doesn’t matter about what you do at the beginning of the year,” said Fajardo. “All that matters is how you end the year and how well you’re playing going into the playoffs so that’s what these games are about.”
The Alouettes’ are kicking off a three-game road stretch, one Fajardo looks forward to.
“You understand what kind of team you have when you play on the road because it’s us versus the world mentality and you can feel everybody against you,” said Fajardo. “Plus, I always tend to find more joy in silencing thousands of people than bringing thousands of people to their feet.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
