The fourth wave of COVID-19 that public health experts have been warning about for months has arrived.
“The latest national surveillance data indicate that a fourth wave is underway in Canada and that cases are plotting along a strong resurgence trajectory,” said Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, at a press conference Thursday.
“We are seeing an increase in numbers, and it’s mostly amongst the unvaccinated,” said Dr. Cora Constantinescu, a pediatric infectious diseases specialist with the University of Calgary.
“Our hospitalizations are going up, at least in Alberta. ICU stays are going up as part of the numbers from our chief medical officer of health, and R0, which is how many people one person infects, is going up, which is all a sign of an outbreak or a wave.”
Delta will drive it
According to preliminary data from the Public Health Agency of Canada, the Delta variant has essentially taken over in Canada. It was only about eight per cent of cases during the week of May 9, 2021.
By July 11, it was 78 per cent — though the data remains incomplete, so this number could change.
However, public health experts have no doubt that Delta is driving the fourth wave.
“The Delta variant is a very highly contagious variant with a very high R0,” said Craig Janes, director of the school of public health sciences at the University of Waterloo.
“So it just means that we’re going to see probably this doubling (of case numbers) fairly quickly. With each week you’re going to see increasing cases.”
2:22 Concerns about holding federal election during 4th wave
Concerns about holding federal election during 4th wave
“Although we’re heading into the fourth wave driven by the Delta variant, the good news is that millions of Canadians have rolled up their sleeves to help build a strong wall of vaccination production,” Tam said Thursday.
The unvaccinated are most at risk
Experts agree that people who aren’t vaccinated — including children under 12 who are too young to be eligible for the shot — are most at risk in this wave of the pandemic.
“They call it the ‘pandemic of the unvaccinated,’” Dr. Anna Banerji, an infectious diseases specialist with the University of Toronto, told Global News earlier in the week.
“The vast majority of people that will get COVID will be the unvaccinated people. So, adults who continue to be unvaccinated or under-vaccinated and children under the age of 12 that are not eligible for vaccination right now.”
1:53 Beyond the facts: Why some Canadians remain vaccine hesitant
Beyond the facts: Why some Canadians remain vaccine hesitant
With the combination of the Delta variant affecting children in a way that original strains of COVID-19 didn’t and lower vaccination rates in younger people, “We’re going to see a lot of younger people getting sick and winding up in the hospital,” Janes said.
Ontario recently started releasing data on hospitalization numbers that include vaccine status.
At first look, unvaccinated people represent 81 per cent of non-ICU hospital patients with COVID-19 in the province. Partially-vaccinated people represent 8 per cent and fully-vaccinated people are 11 per cent.
However, it’s worth remembering that most Ontarians — 64 per cent — are fully vaccinated right now. So, taking that into account, the unvaccinated are 15 times more likely to be in hospital with COVID-19 than people who are fully vaccinated: a rate of 1.5 per 100,000 compared to 0.1 per 100,000.
Alberta is showing similar figures. According to the government website, 92 per cent of hospitalized cases since January occurred in unvaccinated people, or in people who got sick less than two weeks after their first dose. Unvaccinated people account for the vast majority of people with COVID-19 currently in Alberta hospitals and ICUs.
“I think the picture has changed for adults because of vaccination and because of our fantastic rate of vaccination in Canada,” Constantinescu said.
“I think this has changed for adults to a huge extent. We’re not seeing the same hospitalization and death, but for children, it’s the same. So because our kids are unvaccinated, the only way our children are safe is if the numbers in our society are low.”
Hospitalizations might not match case numbers
Because of the high vaccination rate, epidemiologists suggest that we might not see hospitalizations stay as closely linked to case numbers as they were in the past.
2:02 COVID-19 case numbers in Ontario surpass 500
COVID-19 case numbers in Ontario surpass 500
“You’ll see cases going up, but without the corresponding increase in hospitalization,” Janes said. He thinks that this is because older people, who are most likely to end up in the hospital, tend also to be the most-vaccinated group.
So even if younger people get infected, they likely won’t be going to hospital in the same numbers as older people were earlier in the pandemic, he thinks.
We might be seeing this now in the U.K., he said, where case numbers are rising but hospitalization isn’t at the same rate.
Public health measures need to maintained to control it
How do we stop the fourth wave? “Get vaccinated!” said Constantinescu.
“If you haven’t had the first dose, have the first dose,” she said, but, “the second dose is much more magical.”
Because children can’t be vaccinated, it’s especially important that those around them are, she said.
Aside from vaccination, she thinks that it’s a good idea to continue to wear masks indoors. “There’s no doubt in my mind that when indoor masking went down, COVID came up again,” she said.
Finally, if you’re feeling sick, even with just a sore throat, you should stay home, she said.
5:31 Federal election amid fourth wave & schools reopening? Dr. Bogoch shares reaction and the risks involved
Federal election amid fourth wave & schools reopening? Dr. Bogoch shares reaction and the risks involved
Over time, Janes said, “This pandemic may end in terms of waves of hospitalizations and some serious illness, but it’s not going to go away. It’ll just simply become endemic.”
Public health practitioners are most concerned about serious illness, he explained. “It’s really the spikes in hospitalization. I think when those level off, we don’t see those anymore, that’s when I think we can feel we can be somewhat confident that the pandemic is over.”
HOUSTON (AP) — Brian White scored in the second half to rally the Vancouver Whitecaps to a 1-1 draw with the Houston Dynamo on Wednesday night.
Houston (12-9-8) took a 1-0 lead into halftime after Ezequiel Ponce scored on a penalty kick in the seventh minute of stoppage time. Ponce’s third goal this season came after Amine Bassi drew a foul on Whitecaps midfielder Pedro Vite following a video review. It was Ponce’s sixth career appearance, all starts.
Vancouver (13-8-7) scored the equalizer in the 73rd minute when White, who entered in the 60th, used assists from Fafá Picault and Ryan Gauld to find the net for the 13th time this season. Picault’s assist was his fifth, matching his career high for a single season. Gauld’s assist gives him a career-best 13 on the season.
Yohei Takaoka, who had clean sheets in his last three starts, finished with one save in goal for the Whitecaps.
Steve Clark saved three shots for the Dynamo, who remain one point behind Vancouver in the Western Conference standings.
Houston, which was coming off a 4-1 victory over Real Salt Lake, has allowed just 33 goals this season.
Vancouver — 6-2-2 in its last 10 matches overall — leads the all-time series 10-9-6.
The Whitecaps remain on the road to play the Los Angeles Galaxy on Saturday. The Dynamo travel to play Austin FC on Saturday.
FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) — Tom Pearce and Nathan Saliba scored in the second half — the first goals of their careers — and CF Montreal rallied for a 2-2 draw with the New England Revolution on Wednesday night.
“In the second half, the guys came out a little more ambitious and above all, more connected,” Montreal head coach Laurent Courtois said. “It was a great second half of resilience and fighting spirit. Nathan and Sam were impressive.
“Impressive in covering the gaps and compensating for the teammates, and the individual defending – yes it’s true, it is a lot of weight on their shoulders, but that’s the job.”
New England (8-16-4) jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the 24th minute on Bobby Wood’s third goal of the season. Teenage defender Peyton Miller notched his first assist in his fourth career start and sixth appearance and Carles Gil picked up his ninth of the season. Peyton, at 16 years, 315 days old, is the eighth youngest player in league history to record his first assist.
The Revolution took a two-goal lead in the 35th minute and held it through halftime when 19-year-old Esmir Bajraktarevic took a pass from Gil and scored his third goal of the season and career in his first full season in the league. It was the 73rd regular-season assist in Gil’s career, tying him with Steve Ralston for the most in club history.
Montreal (7-12-10) pulled within a goal in the 54th minute when Pearce scored off a free kick after defender George Campbell drew a foul on New England’s Mark-Anthony Kaye. It was the first goal for Pearce in his third career start and fourth appearance.
“Playoffs are the goal. Maybe it wasn’t in the best form, but in the end, we are picking up a point,” Pearce said. “We came into this game confident, ready to play our own game. Everyone tries their best, whenever the players are called on, we are always ready, and we are always giving it our best.”
Montreal scored the equalizer in the 68th minute on the first career goal by Saliba, a 20-year-old midfielder. Saliba has made 34 starts and 48 appearances with Montreal in his two seasons in the league. Campbell snagged his second assist of the season and the third of his career.
“It’s an incredible feeling, it’s a goal I’ve been waiting for a long time. I’m extremely happy that I was able to score it and that it can help the team take this important point on the road,” Saliba said. “Pearce’s first goal gave us really good momentum and we kept up the pressure to go for a second goal. We got more solid defensively, and we came back ready after halftime, to push for these 3 points.”
Aljaz Ivacic finished with four saves in goal for the Revolution.
Jonathan Sirois stopped four shots for Montreal.
New England beat Montreal 5-0 on the road on Aug. 24.
New England leads the all-time series 16-13-4. Montreal improves to 5-8-2 on the road against the Revs.
The Revolution travel to take on Charlotte FC on Saturday. Montreal returns home to host the Chicago Fire on Saturday.
ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) — Adolis García hit a two-run home run in the sixth inning, Cody Bradford pitched seven strong innings after the worst start of his career, and the Texas Rangers beat the Toronto Blue Jays 2-0 on Wednesday night.
The win kept the defending World Series-champion Rangers alive in the AL West race, trailing first-place Houston by 10 games with 10 to play.
García launched an inside sinker over the left-field wall off Toronto starter Bowden Francis (8-5) after Wyatt Langford singled.
“He swings hard, he swings a lot,” Francis said of García. “I guess the velo was dropping during that time.”
Bradford (6-3) allowed five hits and no walks while striking out six.
The seven shutout innings are the most in a game during his two-year career. He was knocked out of his previous start after allowing career highs in hits (nine), runs (eight) and homers (three) in 3 2/3 innings in a 14-4 loss at Arizona.
“Throughout the week, you’ve got to try and digest what happened, see where I can make adjustments, whether it was just game plan went wrong or just poor execution, or a little bit of both,” Bradford said. “Then you flush it.”
Bradford was perfect through four innings before Alejandro Kirk opened the fifth with a smash back to the mound that caromed off Bradford’s left foot and rolled into right field for a single. It extended Kirk’s hitting streak to a career-high 12 games.
Spencer Horwitz’s double to left-center put runners on second and third with no outs before Bradford retired the next three batters.
Blue Jays manager John Schneider credited Bradford’s “deceptive fastball.”
“When you’re throwing 89, 92, you’ve got to have pretty good deception with that at this level,” Schneider said. “Kept us off balance.”
Kirby Yates pitched a perfect ninth inning for his 31st save in 32 opportunities.
Francis, who took no-hitters into the ninth inning in two of his previous four starts, allowed a double to Marcus Semien, the Rangers’ first hitter of the game. He gave up five hits and one walk in six innings.
Francis has a 1.96 ERA in nine starts with 54 strikeouts and seven walks since being moved back into the starting rotation in late July.
“I don’t even want to get complacent, on cruise control,” Francis said. “Just keep attacking.”
TRAINER’S ROOM
Blue Jays: SS Bo Bichette was a late scratch with a right middle finger contusion suffered during infield practice. Schneider said the team will get back x-rays on Thursday. Bichette was activated Tuesday following a calf injury and played for the first time in two months, going 2 for 5 with one RBI at the plate. … INF Will Wagner (left knee inflammation) will have the knee scoped on Thursday. Schneider said Wagner should be ready to start spring training. Wagner, son of former major leaguer Billy Wagner, was acquired from Houston at the trade deadline.
UP NEXT
Rangers rookie RHP Kumar Rocker (0-0, 2.25 ERA) will make his home debut against Blue Jays RHP Kevin Gausman (12-11, 4.02) in the series finale. Rocker allowed one run in four innings at Seattle last Thursday in his major league debut.
