Is the Toronto real estate market still one of the most expensive housing segments in Canada and the world? Yes.
Is the Toronto real estate market coming down from its record highs achieved during the coronavirus pandemic? Yes.
Before the once-in-a-century event, the Toronto housing market recorded exceptional gains, from single-detached residential properties to condominium units. Housing affordability was the talk of the town before February 2020. But, when the COVID-19 public health crisis decimated the global economy, it transformed into a situation of “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.”
North America’s fourth-largest city enjoyed unprecedented gains on every front, be it sales activity or property valuations. The major urban centre skyrocketed amid falling interest rates, changing homebuyer trends, and fiscal and monetary expansion. Although the condo sector weakened in the first year of the pandemic, conditions started improving in the summer of 2021.
Now that the economy is on the other side of the pandemic, which means higher interest rates, the Toronto real estate market is adapting to this new landscape. This, of course, equates to some stabilization in housing sector.
So, how is the Toronto housing market performing as of late?
What You Need to Know About the Current Toronto Housing Market
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), home sales plummeted 34.2 per cent year-over-year in August, totalling a little more than 5,600 transactions. Demand has considerably eased as prospective homebuyers weigh current conditions, whether higher interest rates or falling prices.
Price growth has slowed down at a notable pace. Association data show that the average selling price of all homes combined edged up just 0.9 per cent from the same time a year ago, rising to $1,079,500.
But TRREB added an important point: “The average selling price was also up slightly month-over-month, while the HPI [home price index] Composite was lower compared to July. Monthly growth in the average price versus a dip in the HPI Composite suggests a greater share of more expensive home types sold in August.”
Here is a breakdown of different property types based on sales and price year-over-year:
Detached
- Sales: -26% to 511 units
- Average Price: -1.7% to $1,648,209
Semi-Detached
- Sales: -29.6% to 159 units
- Average Price: -7.3% to $1,127,429
Townhouse
- Sales: -44% to 182 units
- Average Price: +0.4% to $913,410
Condo
- Sales: -40.6% to 1,028 units
- Average Price: +2.6% to $736,940
Supply has been mixed. New residential listings slipped 0.7 per cent, totalling 10,537 units in August. But active listings soared more than 62 per cent to 13,305 units. New housing construction activity has also been robust in the Toronto real estate market, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) data show. In August, housing starts climbed 12.55 per cent to 4,535 units. Year-to-date, there have been more than 27,000 units under construction, up nearly 4.5 per cent from the first eight months of 2021.
Mortgage Rates Weighing on Toronto Housing Market
Mortgage rates are north of five per cent – and climbing. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to keep raising interest rates until inflation decreases significantly. This is expected to keep lifting the cost to service a mortgage during its amortization period.
“While higher borrowing costs have impacted home purchase decisions, existing homeowners nearing mortgage renewal are also facing higher costs,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger in a statement. “There is room for the federal government to provide for greater housing affordability for existing homeowners by removing the stress test when existing mortgages are switched to a new lender, allowing for greater competition in the mortgage market. Further, allowing for longer amortization periods on mortgage renewals would assist current homeowners in an inflationary environment where everyday costs have risen dramatically.”
In other words, a rising-rate environment could leave new homeowners vulnerable to higher mortgages. The polls already confirm a concerning trend is forming in the mortgage market: Households have taken on too much debt, and they are not taking their mortgages seriously.
Experts contend that the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) should think about weighing on the present stress test and determine if it continues to be applicable throughout the market correction.
“Is it reasonable to test home buyers at two percentage points above the current elevated rates, or should a more flexible test be applied that follows the interest rate cycle?” asked TRREB CEO John DiMichele. “In addition, OSFI should consider removing the stress test for existing mortgage holders who want to shop for the best possible rate at renewal rather than forcing them to stay with their existing lender to avoid the stress test.”
The mortgage stress test was designed to determine if homeowners could withstand a potential rate shock, which is typically about two per cent higher than the current rate. In June 2021, the minimum qualifying rate was revised: the rate offered by your mortgage lender plus two per cent or 5.25 per cent – whichever is higher.
A recent IG Wealth Management survey learned that more than half of Canadians are anxious about being able to afford their mortgage payments as interest rates increase. According to the online poll of 1,590 adults, just 39 per cent of respondents include mortgages in their monthly budgets.
“In many cases, monthly mortgage payments, along with taxes, account for one of the largest monthly expenses Canadians face,” stated Alana Riley, head of mortgage, insurance and banking at IG Wealth Management, in a news release. “So, while it is encouraging that so many reported having a monthly budget, it’s only providing a partial snapshot of their overall cashflow situation if they don’t factor in their mortgage.”
Meanwhile, with higher rates potentially extending the decline in prices heading into 2023, affordability will continue to play an important role in the broader Ontario real estate market.
“There are other issues beyond borrowing costs impacting housing affordability in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The ability to bring on more supply is the longer-term challenge,” added TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.
How much higher will mortgage rates go? Will the Toronto real estate market continue easing? Can homeowners withstand the current inflationary and rising-rate climate? While 2022 might have been the start of the latest downturn, next year could be the more interesting time for buyers, sellers, analysts, and public policymakers.
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