TORONTO —
Canada is experiencing a drop in new COVID-19 cases, which is mirrored in countries like the U.S. and India, and experts are trying to understand the exact reasons behind the downward trend.
According to CTV News’ COVID-19 tracker, 7,137 new cases were reported on Jan. 3. Compare that with Wednesday’s numbers – 2,606 new cases – and the drop seems stark.
Ontario, which has been in a state of lockdown for several weeks, logged fewer than 900 new cases Wednesday, numbers that have not been seen since October 2020.
With vaccine supply chains disrupted and several provinces’ rollout plans faltering, scientists have been attempting to decode the downward trend.
Toronto infectious disease specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch says the drop in cases can be attributed to many things, but especially Canadians’ good behaviour – including abiding by lockdown rules.
“No one likes lockdowns, they’re terrible and devastating, but they work,” Bogoch said on CTV’s Your Morning Thursday. “If you have a lot of cases in an area with a lot of people and you lock it down you are going to see cases go down and we see this time and time again.”
Bogoch said other measures, such as people wearing masks indoors, are “extremely helpful” in bringing new cases down but we “can’t discount the seasonality” of COVID-19 being a factor in fewer virus transmissions.
“We still don’t know enough about it, but that may be a factor,” he said.
In the United States, records were shattered in early January for daily new COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths – right on the heels of holiday travel. But since then, new cases and hospitalization rates have plummeted and doctors in that country also partially attribute that trend to good pandemic behaviour and some evidence of what one expert called “population immunity.”
“One, we came off of really high numbers from the holidays,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, told CNN.
“Second, there is pretty good evidence that people are doing a better job of social distancing and mask wearing. Third, I think in a lot of communities, we’ve had so much infection that you have some level of population immunity. Not herd immunity, but enough population immunity that it is causing the virus to slow down.”
India has also reported a dramatic fall in new cases, down from a peak of nearly 100,000 a day to 11,000 a day – which has left some experts stumped.
Bogoch said a lot of the same public health measures are at play there.
“Masks are widely used in India, and in fact there are fines if you don’t wear a mask,” he said. “So I think there are a lot of public health measures being used there.”
Bogoch also pointed out that as the virus has swept through many areas of India, especially in lower socio-economic communities, there may be “pockets of herd immunity.”
“Not the whole country, but pockets of immunity within the country because so many people have been infected with this virus – we have that data from serology studies,” he said, adding once again that experts can’t discount the concept of seasonality.
While the World Health Organization said in its latest update that the number of global COVID-19 infections has fallen by 16 per cent in one week – resulting in half a million fewer cases reported – some parts of the world, including Europe, are still very much in the grip of the pandemic due to the spread of coronavirus variants.
News of the U.K. starting human challenge trials – in which researchers intentionally give participants COVID-19 to study the virus – have been making waves. But Bogoch said he is wary of embarking on that scientific process at the moment.
“We don’t have a cure. We have treatments which are fine but no cure,” he explained. “We know that younger people who are included in clinical trials are unlikely to die because they’re young, but people are still getting pretty sick – and in addition we know there are long-term symptoms from this virus.”
Bogoch pointed out that vaccines are already being updated without human trials, so he was not “entirely sure” why the clinical trials are ongoing.
“You can get some interesting answers from them, like how much virus it actually takes to infect someone – so there is some amazing data you can glean from clinical trials, but I don’t think I am a fan of human trials for COVID-19 until there are good cures available,” he said.
Bogoch warned that even with the positive news of the number of new daily cases dropping, Canada and other countries need to approach the next few months with caution, especially due to variants.
“We have to respect the variants of concern, we don’t know enough about them, we know that some are more transmissible – we saw one COVID-19 mutation get married to another COVID-19 mutation – we still don’t know how that will work, that’s the recombinant virus,” he said. “While we have to be open-minded to new data, as things are reopening we need to approach with caution so we don’t get a third wave.”
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With files from CNN
PORT ALBERNI, B.C. – RCMP say the body of a second person has been found inside their vehicle after a road washed away amid pouring rain on the west coast of Vancouver Island.
Police say two vehicles went into the Sarita River when Bamfield Road washed out on Saturday as an atmospheric river hammered southern B.C.
The body of the other driver was found Sunday.
More coming.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
The B.C. Greens say Sonia Furstenau will be staying on as party leader, despite losing her seat in the legislature in Saturday’s provincial election.
The party says in a statement that its two newly elected MLAs, Jeremy Valeriote and Rob Botterell, support Furstenau’s leadership as they “navigate the prospect of having the balance of power in the legislature.”
Neither the NDP led by Premier David Eby nor the B.C. Conservatives led by John Rustad secured a majority in the election, with two recounts set to take place from Oct. 26 to 28.
Eby says in a news conference that while the election outcome is uncertain, it’s “very likely” that the NDP would need the support of others to pass legislation.
He says he reached out to Furstenau on election night to congratulate her on the Greens’ showing.
But he says the Green party has told the NDP they are “not ready yet” for a conversation about a minority government deal.
The Conservatives went from taking less than two per cent of the vote in 2020 to being elected or leading in 45 ridings, two short of a majority and only one behind the NDP.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Toronto FC captain Jonathan Osorio is making a difference, 4,175 kilometres away from home.
The 32-year-old Canadian international midfielder, whose parents hail from Colombia, has been working with the Canadian Colombian Children’s Organization, a charity whose goal is to help disadvantaged youth in the South American country.
Osorio has worked behind the scenes, with no fanfare.
Until now, with his benevolence resulting in becoming Toronto FC’s nominee for the Audi Goals Drive Progress Impact Award, which honours an MLS player “who showed outstanding dedication to charitable efforts and serving the community” during the 2024 season.”
Other nominees include Vancouver Whitecaps midfielder Sebastian Berhalter and CF Montreal goalkeeper Jonathan Sirois.
The winner will be announced in late November.
The Canadian Colombian Children’s Organization (CCCO) is run entirely by volunteers like Monica Figueredo and Claudia Soler. Founded in 1991, it received charitable status in 2005.
The charity currently has four projects on the go: two in Medellin and one each in Armenia and Barranquilla.
They include a school, a home for young girls whose parents are addicted to drugs, after-school and weekend programs for children in a disadvantaged neighbourhood, and nutrition and education help for underprivileged youth.
The organization heard about Osorio and was put in contact with him via an intermediary, which led to a lunch meeting. Osorio did his due diligence and soon got back to the charity with his decision.
“It was something that I wanted to be a part of right away,” said Osorio, whose lone regret is that he didn’t get involved sooner.
“I’m fortunate now that to help more now that I could have back then,” he added. “The timing actually worked out for everybody. For the last three years I have donated to their cause and we’ve built a couple of (football) fields in different cities over there in the schools.”
His father visited one of the sites in Armenia close to his hometown.
“He said it was amazing, the kids, how grateful they are to be able to play on any pitch, really,” said Osorio. “But to be playing on a new pitch, they’re just so grateful and so humble.
“It really makes it worth it being part of this organization.”
The collaboration has also made Osorio take stock.
“We’re very fortunate here in Canada, I think, for the most part. Kids get to go to school and have a roof over their head and things like that. In Colombia, it’s not really the same case. My father and his family grew up in tough conditions, so giving back is like giving back to my father.”
Osorio’s help has been a godsend to the charity.
“We were so surprised with how willing he was,” said Soler.
The TFC skipper has helped pay for a football field in Armenia as well as an ambitious sports complex under construction in Barranquilla.
“It’s been great for them,” Figueredo said of the pitch in Armenia. “Because when they go to school, now they have a proper place to train.”
Osorio has also sent videos encouraging the kids to stay active — as well as shipping soccer balls and signed jerseys their way.
“They know more about Jonathan than the other players in Colombia,” Figueredo said. “That’s the funny part. Even though he’s far away, they’ve connected with him.”
“They feel that they have a future, that they can do more,” she added. “Seeing that was really, really great.”
The kids also followed Osorio through the 2022 World Cup and this summer’s Copa America.
Back home, Osorio has also attended the charity’s annual golf tournament, helping raise funds.
A Toronto native, he has long donated four tickets for every TFC home game to the Hospital for Sick Children.
Vancouver’s Berhalter was nominated for his involvement in the Whitecaps’ partnership with B.C. Children’s Hospital while Montreal’s Sirois was chosen for his work with the Montreal Impact Foundation.
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.
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