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What's happening with real estate prices in Canada? – Mortgage Broker News

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Real estate price growth in Canada outpaced every other G7 market in 2020, maintaining a lead that stems back to even before the Great Recession.

Data from the United States Federal Reserve showed that Canada’s average real estate price grew by 2.93% during the third quarter of 2020, representing an 8.27% annual gain.

This year-over-year pace far outstripped the price growth seen in Germany (6.99%), France (4.7%), the US (3.45%), the UK (2.94%), Italy (2.17%), and Japan (-1.15%) during the same period.

Considering the pandemic’s failure to put the brakes on the Canadian real estate market, the momentum generated in 2020 is expected to further spur housing activity and price growth nationwide this year.

One of the most optimistic takes on this trajectory was outlined in a recent forecast by Canada Imperial Bank of Commerce. The institution is anticipating price growth of around 2.4% in the 12 months starting October 2020, which is expected to accelerate to 3% over 2022-23.

The bank’s upside scenario, where the economy recovers at a much faster pace than expected, has predicted a home price increase of 11.2% over the next year, and another 10.4% over 2022-23.

“This is so far one of the more bullish forecasts from a bank, with their downside a little worse than National Bank’s base case,” Better Dwelling said in its report on the CIBC analysis. “CIBC’s downside is also similar to what RBC management has stated they expect over the same period. Risk firms have forecasted much larger price declines, while the industry is forecasting much higher price growth.”

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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