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What's in store for Ontario politics in 2020 – CBC.ca

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For Premier Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservative government, 2020 will bring the midway point of their four-year mandate, a new opponent leading the Ontario Liberal Party, and fresh challenges to keeping their outstanding campaign promises.

A provincial law sets June 2, 2022, as the date for the next election, which means Ford has two years to reverse his low polling numbers. If a week is a long time in politics, two years is an eternity, so plenty can and will happen until then. 

Here’s what you should look for from the Ford government and the Ontario political scene in 2020.

Teacher strikes 

The new year will pick up where 2019 left off, with significant labour unrest in the education system. None of the four big teachers unions has come close to securing a contract deal, and the three largest — the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation (OSSTF), the Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario (ETFO) and the Ontario English Catholic Teachers’ Association (OECTA) — will all be in a legal strike position in January.

The most fraught negotiations are with OSSTF, as the government’s push for larger class sizes and mandatory online courses in high school has the biggest impact on that union. The government is sticking to its call for wage increases no higher than one per cent per year, while the unions are looking to keep pace with inflation.

The Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation (OSSTF) has already held three one-day strikes this school year, and other education unions could join them on the picket lines in 2020. (Michael Cole/CBC)

Expect to see further strikes as 2020 unfolds, keeping in mind that the government can call back Queen’s Park at any time for an emergency session to pass back-to-work legislation if the strikes escalate.

For the government, there are risks to such a move, because the province must either send the dispute to binding arbitration or impose the terms of a contract. Binding arbitration could bring a settlement that is more expensive than the government wants, while imposing a contract could be found to violate the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, forcing the province to pay out compensation. That is what happened after the Liberal government imposed contracts on teachers in 2012.  

Budget: Take 2

Finance Minister Rod Phillips will try to learn lessons from his predecessor Vic Fedeli’s first and only budget, which triggered weeks of controversy in 2019 for burying program and service cuts that blindsided a wide range of sectors.

Fedeli and Ford’s chief mistake was attempting to sell an austerity budget as something that it wasn’t. To avoid a repeat of 2019, Phillips will need to be forthright with Ontarians and make it clear on budget day what exactly is being cut. 

The broader budget challenge for the Ford government was recently made clear by the province’s financial accountability officer. The growing demands for health care and education will soon outstrip the government’s planned spending in those sectors by $5 billion. Phillips can expect close scrutiny of his numbers as he lays out his path to eliminate the province’s $9-billion deficit by 2023.

Ontario Finance Minister Rod Phillips, right, must deliver his 2020 budget by March 31. (Chris Young/The Canadian Press)

Under a new law brought in by the PCs, the budget must be tabled by March 31. Since the legislature does not sit during March break, that means it’s almost certain to be presented between March 23 and 31.  

Liberal Party resuscitation 

The Ontario Liberal Party is now a shell of what it was for most of the past two decades. With just five sitting MPPs, a mountain of debt and a battered network of riding associations, Liberals are hoping their leadership race will inject new life into the party. 

Some 25,000 party members will be eligible to vote in early February to elect delegates to the leadership convention, which takes place March 7 in Mississauga. 

Six candidates are vying for the job, three of whom have never held elected office at any level. Membership and fundraising figures suggest sitting MPPs Michael Coteau and Mitzie Hunter trail former cabinet minister Steven Del Duca by a significant margin. But if Del Duca doesn’t win on the first ballot, the capriciousness of a delegated convention means anything can happen.  

Horwath’s future on the line 

On the very day the Liberals choose their new leader, Andrea Horwath will mark her 11th anniversary at the helm of the NDP. Although the New Democrats’ seat count has improved in each of the three elections since then, party stalwarts say privately that Horwath should give up the job if she fails to deliver a victory in her fourth contest. 

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath at the 2019 International Plowing Match in Verner, Ont. (Vanessa Tignanelli/The Canadian Press)

That means Horwath must use her status as leader of the Official Opposition to stop the new Liberal leader from stealing the spotlight as the chief alternative to Doug Ford. She will need to start showing Ontarians what she would bring as premier and her party will need to strengthen its candidate base so that voters can conceive of the New Democrats as a potential government, instead of perennial opposition. 

Carbon tax appeal

The Supreme Court of Canada will hear the Ford government’s challenge of the federal carbon pricing system on March 25, one day after the court hears a similar appeal by the Saskatchewan government of Premier Scott Moe. The two provinces are taking the legal lead in questioning the constitutionality of the Trudeau government’s carbon tax, applied to provinces that do not put a price on greenhouse gases. 

Ford has budgeted $30 million to fight the carbon tax, including a TV ad campaign that Ontario’s auditor general determined cost $4 million. Meanwhile, Ontarians filling out their income tax returns this spring will see carbon tax rebates from the federal government amounting to $224 for a single adult and $448 for a couple with two kids. 

12% hydro promise

It’s the most expensive promise still outstanding from the PC election campaign: a 12 per cent cut in the average hydro bill. The government is showing no signs of making any headway on that pledge. The price of electricity instead went up in 2019, approximately by the rate of inflation. Just as the price increased, the government ordered hydro companies to change the way prices are displayed on electricity bills. 

Ford’s Progressive Conservatives promised a 12 per cent reduction in the price of electricity. In 2019, hydro bills went up. (Stephanie vanKampen/CBC)

The government is already spending about $4 billion per year to subsidize hydro rates. Industry estimates suggest a further 12 per cent drop for residential users would cost at least $800 million per year. The PCs had hinted they would partially fund this by using the dividend from the government’s shares in Hydro One. That money — roughly $240 million per year so far — has been spent on other things. 

The PCs might be counting on the public either to forget about the promised hydro rate cut, or to no longer care so deeply about their electricity bills.  

Health reforms 

Health Minister Christine Elliott is leading a major overhaul of how Ontario’s health system is organized, and 2020 will be the year when we start to see the effects.

A key test will be the fortunes of the 24 Ontario Health Teams established during the first wave of the reorganization. Each team — a geographical grouping of hospitals, long-term care facilities, home care providers and community health practitioners — will get its single pot of funding to share among its members, in hopes that the system can shift the burden away from overcrowded hospitals. 

Empty hospital beds are a rare sight in Ontario, as the province faces growing demands on its health system. (Robert Short/CBC)

Watch for what happens as flu season peaks in January. This is traditionally when Ontario hospitals are most overcrowded and the hallway health-care crisis surges. Don’t expect Ford’s promise to “end hallway medicine” to be fulfilled in 2020. 

Work left to do

There remains plenty else on Ford’s to-do list. His wish to spread alcohol sales to corner stores is far from a done deal. The winning bidder to redevelop Ontario Place into what he calls a “world-class destination” is yet to be announced. Despite an agreement with city council, his grand transit plan for Toronto is still merely a colourful map. 

A notable test for Ford will be whether he can maintain the less-combative tone he displayed in the final months of 2019. Ford accomplished this in part by taking on Horwath less frequently in question period: he passed on all but one of the questions the NDP leader put to him in the legislature in December. He has also ratcheted back his criticism of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

With more than two years to go until the next election campaign, there’s plenty of time for the scrappy Doug Ford of old to re-emerge.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, right, shakes hands with Ford during a meeting after the October federal election. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)

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Politics Podcast: What Tuesday’s Primaries Could Mean For November – FiveThirtyEight

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FiveThirtyEight

 

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the outcome of Tuesday’s primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Kentucky, Idaho and Oregon. The results were mixed in terms of which factions in both parties did well. The marquee Republican Senate race in Pennsylvania is still too close to call, and at least two Trump endorsees lost: North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn and Idaho Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin.

You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.

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Politics Briefing: Jason Kenney steps down as UCP leader after receiving 51-per-cent support in leadership review – The Globe and Mail

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Hello,

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney is stepping down as leader of the United Conservative Party after receiving 51-per-cent support in a review of his leadership by the party he helped create.

It marks a political turning point for a leading figure in conservative circles in Canada, a former federal Conservative cabinet minister who has also been an outspoken critic of the federal Liberal government, particularly over its policies on the energy sector.

Moments after the results of the vote by members of the United Conservative Party were announced Wednesday evening, Mr. Kenney announced his plans to exit.

“The result is not what I hoped or frankly what I expected,” Mr. Kenney told supporters. “While 51 per cent of the vote passes the constitutional threshold of a majority, it clearly is not adequate support to continue on as leader.”

As a result, Mr. Kenney said he had informed the UCP president of his intention to step down as leader.

“We need to move forward united. We need to put the past behind us,” he said.

The question before the 59,000 Albertans who have UCP memberships was “Do you approve of the current leader.” A total of 34,298 votes were cast.

A total 17,638 voters – or 51. 4 per cent – said Yes, and 16,660 – or 48.6 per cent – said No.

Mr. Kenney had said that 50 per cent plus one would be a win in the outcome of the vote.

As energy reporter Emma Graney and Calgary reporter Carrie Tait reported earlier here, the vote marks the culmination of two years of open dissent within Mr. Kenney’s caucus from party members and MLAs unhappy with pandemic restrictions and Mr. Kenney’s leadership style.

After 19 years as an MP, Mr. Kenney resigned his parliamentary seat in 2016 to seek the leadership of Alberta’s Progressive Conservatives.

He won the leadership in 2017 after campaigning to merge the PCs with the Wildrose Party. Once the merger came about that year, Mr. Kenney was elected leader of the resulting United Conservative Party and led the UCP to a majority government in the province’s 2019 general election.

This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter signup page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.

TODAY’S HEADLINES

FAST OUT AS CONSERVATIVE FINANCE CRITIC – British Columbia MP Ed Fast is out as official opposition finance critic over his support of former Quebec premier Jean Charest in the race for the leadership of the federal Conservatives. Story here.

INFLATION HITS 31-YEAR HIGH – Canada’s inflation rate hit another record in April as groceries and other everyday items escalated in price, a troubling development for many workers who aren’t seeing their wages keep pace and for central bankers trying to bring inflation back to target levels. Story here.

ROYAL TOUR UNDER WAY, WITH OTTAWA STOP – On Wednesday, Prince Charles and Camilla, the Duchess of Cornwall, embarked on the second day of a visit to Canada, with stops throughout Ottawa designed to recognize pressing issues, including the displacement of Ukrainians because of Russia’s invasion. Earlier this week, Prince Charles acknowledged that the tour has arrived at a time of historic reckoning with Indigenous people. Story here. There’s a Globe and Mail Explainer on the tour here.

RUSSIA CLOSES CBC MOSCOW BUREAU – Russia’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday that it was closing the Moscow bureau of Canada’s CBC and withdrawing visas and accreditation from the public broadcaster’s journalists after Ottawa banned Russian state TV station Russia Today. Story here.

TRUDEAU FACES SUPREME-COURT CHOICE – Globe and Mail Justice Writer Sean Fine looks here at Prime Minister’s Justin Mr. Trudeau’s options as he considers a replacement for Supreme Court Justice Michael Moldaver, who retires on Sept.1.

OTTAWA POLICE DIDN’T ASK FOR EMERGENCIES ACT – The Ottawa Police Service did not make a direct appeal for the invocation of the federal Emergencies Act, its interim chief says. Story here.

NO TIMELINE ON GENDER-VIOLENCE ACTION PLAN DESPITE GOVERNMENT COMMITMENT – Sixteen months after the federal and provincial governments issued a joint declaration that they would work toward creating “a Canada free of gender-based violence,” there is still no timeline for when the country’s first-ever national action plan to achieve that goal will actually be implemented. Story here.

UPTICK IN TRAVEL PLACES PRESSURE ON PASSPORT OFFICERS: UNION – The union representing Canada’s passport officers says its members are facing verbal abuse, stress and long hours as they continue to respond to an overwhelming surge in applications prompted by an uptake in travel after the lifting of many COVID-19 restrictions. Story here.

ONTARIO ELECTION – The first edition of Vote of Confidence, the Globe and Mail’s new guide on learning the ins and outs of the biggest issues in the Ontario election is here.

THIS AND THAT

TODAY IN THE COMMONS ‐ Projected Order of Business at the House of Commons, May 18, accessible here.

TOP POLITICAL BOOK – Toronto Star journalist Joanna Chiu has won the $25,000 Shaughnessy Cohen Prize for Political Writing for her book China Unbound: A New World Disorder, published by House of Anansi Press. She was named the winner at a gala on Tuesday night. Story here.

COMMITTEE MEETINGS – House of Commons committee meetings Wednesday include the standing committee on health holding a hearing on the Emergency Situation Facing Canadians in Light of the COVID-19 Pandemic – details here. Also, the standing committee on national defence will be looking at Rising Domestic Operational Deployments and Challenges for the Canadian Armed Forces – details here.

GOVERNOR GENERAL IN B.C. – Governor-General Mary Simon, and her husband, Whit Fraser, will be visiting British Columbia between Friday and next Tuesday, with stops that include the Governor-General delivering remarks at a memorial event commemorating one year since the confirmation of unmarked graves at a residential school in Tk’emlúps te Secwépemc. It also includes meetings with Premier John Horgan and Indigenous leaders, and a meeting with University of Victoria students.

JOLY IN NEW YORK – Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly is in New York City on Wednesday, beginning a two-day visit to attend meetings at United Nations Headquarters and with other foreign ministers to discuss a co-ordinated response to the global food-security crisis. The trip includes meetings with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and additional senior UN officials.

FREELAND IN GERMANY – Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, also the Finance Minister, is in Bonn to attend the G7 finance ministers and central-bank governors meeting and a working dinner,. The event is being hosted by German Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.

THE DECIBEL

On Wednesday’s edition of The Globe and Mail podcast, wildlife pathologist Brian Stevens talks about this year’s deadly avian flu which has spread from poultry to wild animals, with reports of birds suffering from neurological symptoms, dropping dead from trees and twitching uncontrollably. Nearly two million birds have already died from the avian flu this year in Canada alone. Dr. Stevens talks about how this strain is different, what experts are watching out for, and how to prevent further spread. The Decibel is here.

PRIME MINISTER’S DAY

The Prime Minister held private meetings, spoke to Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin, and attended the national Liberal caucus meeting. He was also scheduled to attend Question Period. As part of the royal visit, the Prime Minister was scheduled to have a private audience with The Prince of Wales., and to participate, with the prince, in a discussion on sustainable finance in combating climate change and building a net-zero economy. Also, the Prime Minister and his wife, Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, were to attend a reception at Rideau Hall, hosted by Governor-General Mary Simon to celebrate the Queen’s platinum jubilee.

LEADERS

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet held a media scrum at the House of Commons regarding the royal visit and its costs as well as the protection of the French language. He also attended Question Period.

Interim Conservative Party Leader Candice Bergen attended Question Period.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh attended the NDP national caucus meeting, held a news conference on the cost of living and was scheduled to participate in Question Period.

No schedules released for other party leaders

OPINION

The Globe and Mail Editorial Board on whether it is time to end Canada’s last remaining COVID travel restrictions: But we supported prudent, measured public-health restrictions. So did the majority of Canadians. In the fog of the pandemic war, mistakes were made, such as keeping schools in some provinces shuttered far too long. But many other impositions were the least bad options, under the circumstances. And they worked. Last week, the number of COVID-related deaths in Canada reached 40,000. It’s a terrible toll. But the same week, the United States reached one million, a death rate three times higher. Government and individual action made the difference – notably Canada’s vaccination rate, which is among the highest in the world. But Canadians’ acceptance of public-health restrictions was always dependent on the assumption that what would be asked of them would go on no longer than necessary, and would be based on the best science. As things change, policy would evolve.“

Andrew Coyne (The Globe and Mail) on the Canada Infrastructure Bank: good idea in principle, bad idea in practice: “That the Government of Canada abolish the Canada Infrastructure Bank.” That was the striking recommendation of the Commons Transport committee in its recent report on the CIB – striking, both because of its finality (end it, don’t mend it) and because it was the only recommendation in the report. Not that anyone should have been altogether surprised, given the predispositions of the three opposition parties in support, who together make up a majority of the committee (its Liberal members dissented).”

Colin Busby (Contributed to The Globe and Mail) on how Employment Insurance is a confusing mess in need of urgent reform: “One message came through loud and clear: the current EI system, with its many layers of complexity and glaring gaps in coverage, has become increasingly ineffective, especially when facing economic shocks. For many Canadians, EI is an extremely complex program to understand and navigate. The introduction and expansion of special benefits – such as maternity and parental benefits, sickness and caregiving leave – has created more than 200 ways in which all EI benefits can overlap with one another. This hodgepodge can confuse even the most informed citizens. And it’s one reason why simplicity should be an overarching principle to guide reforms.”

Ralph Heintzman (Contributed to The Globe and Mail) on what we ignore when we talk about abolishing the monarchy: So, abolition of the Crown in Canada is simply not worth talking about, for least another generation, because it simply cannot be done. Efforts to generate such discussion are a waste of time – time that would be better spent examining the uses and potential of the institution we have, and will have for the foreseeable future.”

Huda Idrees (Contributed to The Globe and Mail) on how Canadians should not be smug whenever there is pain and death to our south: “Diversity is our strength” is a catchy motto that leaders across all levels of government love to quote, but they’re empty words unless we challenge and change racist laws. We have to investigate the rise in hate crimes across Canada, and we have to stop normalizing obvious white supremacist trends disguised under the banner of “freedom.” A good first step on this journey would be to stop using the pain of victims of domestic terrorism in other countries as opportunities to gloat.”

Don Braid (The Calgary Herald) on MLAs jockeying for position ahead of results of a review of Jason Kenney’s leadership of the United Conservative Party: “While Premier Jason Kenney confidently talks about a majority win for his leadership Wednesday, some people in his caucus and government have another subject entirely. They’re speculating about who will be the new premier as early as Thursday, when a full UCP caucus meeting is scheduled at McDougall Centre from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m.”

Got a news tip that you’d like us to look into? E-mail us at tips@globeandmail.com. Need to share documents securely? Reach out via SecureDrop.

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Alberta premier Jason Kenney steps down as UCP leader after narrow leadership win

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Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has stepped down as leader of the United Conservative Party after narrowly winning the party’s leadership vote.

Kenney received 51.4 per cent support in voting results released tonight in Calgary.

He told supporters that the number is not what he hoped for and is not enough for him to continue on as leader.

If Kenney had received less than 50 per cent plus one, he would have had to quit as per party rules and a leadership contest would have been called.

Normally, leaders consider 75 to 80 per cent — or higher — the minimum credible mandate to continue leading their party.

Kenney had earlier said he would accept a slim majority, because the voting pool was skewed by last-minute members interested only in scuttling his big-tent conservative party.

“While 51 per cent of the vote passes the constitutional threshold of a majority, it clearly is not adequate support to continue on as leader,” Kenney said.

“I’ve informed the president of the party of my intention to step down as leader of the United Conservative Party,” he said to gasps in the audience.

“We need to move forward united. We need to put the past behind us. And a large number of our members have asked for an opportunity to clear the air through a leadership election.”

The leadership review took on heightened importance over the past year as Kenney was buffeted by poor polling numbers, sluggish fundraising and open dissent from some in his party and caucus.

It was also punctuated by controversy. It had already been delayed by a year when it was set for an in-person ballot on April 9 in Red Deer, Alta.

When 15,000 members signed up — five times more than expected — the party said it couldn’t handle the logistics and moved to a mail-in ballot open to all 59,000 members.

Critics said the change was made to give Kenney the edge as it appeared he was going to lose the in-person vote.

Elections Alberta is also investigating allegations of illegal bulk buying of memberships in the review. And the party remains under investigation by the RCMP over allegations of criminal identity fraud in the 2017 contest that saw Kenney elected leader.

Kenney had made it clear that the vote and open dissent had become a “soap opera” distracting the party facing a provincial election next May.

He also said that if he got the required support, he would expect dissenters in his caucus to rally behind him or face unnamed consequences.

Two backbenchers who openly criticized Kenney last year — Todd Loewen and Drew Barnes — were voted out of caucus and sit as Independents.

Backbenchers Jason Stephan, Peter Guthrie and Brian Jean — who helped Kenney found the UCP — have been the most vocal. They openly urged the premier to resign for the good of the party.

Kenney has tried to downplay the dissent by tying it directly to unhappiness over COVID-19 restrictions his government bought in to try to stop the spread of the virus.

Opponents in caucus say the dissatisfaction is also over Kenney’s policies and management style, which they deem to be top-down, dismissive and undemocratic. They say Kenney has not done enough to gain a better deal for Alberta with the federal government on shared programs.

Conservative leaders in Alberta have not fared well after middling votes in leadership reviews.

Former Progressive Conservative premier Ralph Klein left after getting 55 per cent of the vote in 2006. Ed Stelmach and Alison Redford received 77 per cent in their reviews, but stepped down from the top job when the party pushed back.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 18, 2022.

 

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