For Premier Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservative government, 2020 will bring the midway point of their four-year mandate, a new opponent leading the Ontario Liberal Party, and fresh challenges to keeping their outstanding campaign promises.
A provincial law sets June 2, 2022, as the date for the next election, which means Ford has two years to reverse his low polling numbers. If a week is a long time in politics, two years is an eternity, so plenty can and will happen until then.
Here’s what you should look for from the Ford government and the Ontario political scene in 2020.
Teacher strikes
The new year will pick up where 2019 left off, with significant labour unrest in the education system. None of the four big teachers unions has come close to securing a contract deal, and the three largest — the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation (OSSTF), the Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario (ETFO) and the Ontario English Catholic Teachers’ Association (OECTA) — will all be in a legal strike position in January.
The most fraught negotiations are with OSSTF, as the government’s push for larger class sizes and mandatory online courses in high school has the biggest impact on that union. The government is sticking to its call for wage increases no higher than one per cent per year, while the unions are looking to keep pace with inflation.
The Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation (OSSTF) has already held three one-day strikes this school year, and other education unions could join them on the picket lines in 2020. (Michael Cole/CBC)
Expect to see further strikes as 2020 unfolds, keeping in mind that the government can call back Queen’s Park at any time for an emergency session to pass back-to-work legislation if the strikes escalate.
For the government, there are risks to such a move, because the province must either send the dispute to binding arbitration or impose the terms of a contract. Binding arbitration could bring a settlement that is more expensive than the government wants, while imposing a contract could be found to violate the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, forcing the province to pay out compensation. That is what happened after the Liberal government imposed contracts on teachers in 2012.
Budget: Take 2
Finance Minister Rod Phillips will try to learn lessons from his predecessor Vic Fedeli’s first and only budget, which triggered weeks of controversy in 2019 for burying program and service cuts that blindsided a wide range of sectors.
Fedeli and Ford’s chief mistake was attempting to sell an austerity budget as something that it wasn’t. To avoid a repeat of 2019, Phillips will need to be forthright with Ontarians and make it clear on budget day what exactly is being cut.
The broader budget challenge for the Ford government was recently made clear by the province’s financial accountability officer. The growing demands for health care and education will soon outstrip the government’s planned spending in those sectors by $5 billion. Phillips can expect close scrutiny of his numbers as he lays out his path to eliminate the province’s $9-billion deficit by 2023.
Ontario Finance Minister Rod Phillips, right, must deliver his 2020 budget by March 31. (Chris Young/The Canadian Press)
Under a new law brought in by the PCs, the budget must be tabled by March 31. Since the legislature does not sit during March break, that means it’s almost certain to be presented between March 23 and 31.
Liberal Party resuscitation
The Ontario Liberal Party is now a shell of what it was for most of the past two decades. With just five sitting MPPs, a mountain of debt and a battered network of riding associations, Liberals are hoping their leadership race will inject new life into the party.
Some 25,000 party members will be eligible to vote in early February to elect delegates to the leadership convention, which takes place March 7 in Mississauga.
Six candidates are vying for the job, three of whom have never held elected office at any level. Membership and fundraising figures suggest sitting MPPs Michael Coteau and Mitzie Hunter trail former cabinet minister Steven Del Duca by a significant margin. But if Del Duca doesn’t win on the first ballot, the capriciousness of a delegated convention means anything can happen.
Horwath’s future on the line
On the very day the Liberals choose their new leader, Andrea Horwath will mark her 11th anniversary at the helm of the NDP. Although the New Democrats’ seat count has improved in each of the three elections since then, party stalwarts say privately that Horwath should give up the job if she fails to deliver a victory in her fourth contest.
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath at the 2019 International Plowing Match in Verner, Ont. (Vanessa Tignanelli/The Canadian Press)
That means Horwath must use her status as leader of the Official Opposition to stop the new Liberal leader from stealing the spotlight as the chief alternative to Doug Ford. She will need to start showing Ontarians what she would bring as premier and her party will need to strengthen its candidate base so that voters can conceive of the New Democrats as a potential government, instead of perennial opposition.
Carbon tax appeal
The Supreme Court of Canada will hear the Ford government’s challenge of the federal carbon pricing system on March 25, one day after the court hears a similar appeal by the Saskatchewan government of Premier Scott Moe. The two provinces are taking the legal lead in questioning the constitutionality of the Trudeau government’s carbon tax, applied to provinces that do not put a price on greenhouse gases.
Ford has budgeted $30 million to fight the carbon tax, including a TV ad campaign that Ontario’s auditor general determined cost $4 million. Meanwhile, Ontarians filling out their income tax returns this spring will see carbon tax rebates from the federal government amounting to $224 for a single adult and $448 for a couple with two kids.
12% hydro promise
It’s the most expensive promise still outstanding from the PC election campaign: a 12 per cent cut in the average hydro bill. The government is showing no signs of making any headway on that pledge. The price of electricity instead went up in 2019, approximately by the rate of inflation. Just as the price increased, the government ordered hydro companies to change the way prices are displayed on electricity bills.
Ford’s Progressive Conservatives promised a 12 per cent reduction in the price of electricity. In 2019, hydro bills went up. (Stephanie vanKampen/CBC)
The government is already spending about $4 billion per year to subsidize hydro rates. Industry estimates suggest a further 12 per cent drop for residential users would cost at least $800 million per year. The PCs had hinted they would partially fund this by using the dividend from the government’s shares in Hydro One. That money — roughly $240 million per year so far — has been spent on other things.
The PCs might be counting on the public either to forget about the promised hydro rate cut, or to no longer care so deeply about their electricity bills.
Health reforms
Health Minister Christine Elliott is leading a major overhaul of how Ontario’s health system is organized, and 2020 will be the year when we start to see the effects.
A key test will be the fortunes of the 24 Ontario Health Teams established during the first wave of the reorganization. Each team — a geographical grouping of hospitals, long-term care facilities, home care providers and community health practitioners — will get its single pot of funding to share among its members, in hopes that the system can shift the burden away from overcrowded hospitals.
Empty hospital beds are a rare sight in Ontario, as the province faces growing demands on its health system. (Robert Short/CBC)
Watch for what happens as flu season peaks in January. This is traditionally when Ontario hospitals are most overcrowded and the hallway health-care crisis surges. Don’t expect Ford’s promise to “end hallway medicine” to be fulfilled in 2020.
Work left to do
There remains plenty else on Ford’s to-do list. His wish to spread alcohol sales to corner stores is far from a done deal. The winning bidder to redevelop Ontario Place into what he calls a “world-class destination” is yet to be announced. Despite an agreement with city council, his grand transit plan for Toronto is still merely a colourful map.
A notable test for Ford will be whether he can maintain the less-combative tone he displayed in the final months of 2019. Ford accomplished this in part by taking on Horwath less frequently in question period: he passed on all but one of the questions the NDP leader put to him in the legislature in December. He has also ratcheted back his criticism of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
With more than two years to go until the next election campaign, there’s plenty of time for the scrappy Doug Ford of old to re-emerge.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, right, shakes hands with Ford during a meeting after the October federal election. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
