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What's next after S&P 500’s worst inflation data day in years – Financial Post

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Investors are staring at a potentially long way down before they find support

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The S&P 500 index blew past a series of troubling markers in its relentless rally to 5,000. Now, after the rout on Feb. 13, investors are staring at a potentially long way down before they find support.

Signs of overexuberance are everywhere. The S&P 500s 15-week rally, in which it gained 22 per cent through Feb. 12’s close, pushed the gauge 13 per cent above its 200-day moving average, something that has occurred on just five per cent of the trading days this century. Hedge funds’ exposure to money-losing tech firms is hovering near a two-year high. And positioning across the stock market is stretched and demand for loss protection muted.

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The cold water to douse those flames arrived on the morning of Feb. 13 in the form of consumer price index (CPI) data showing inflation remains stickier than expected. The rally that had been predicated on the belief that the United States Federal Reserve’s imminent pivot to interest rate cuts slammed into reality, as those bets are being frantically rolled back.

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“The data put in doubt investors’ optimism that the central bank’s interest-rate cuts are basically a done deal,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance LLC, said. “It reinforced the idea that interest rate cuts are not coming any time soon. And if that’s the case, all of a sudden, the stock market rally is looking stretched.”

The risk-off momentum pushed the S&P 500 down 1.4 per cent on Feb. 13, its worst CPI-day performance since September 2022. The Nasdaq 100 index fell 1.6 per cent, while the stocks with the highest short interest dropped 5.5 per cent in the biggest loss in almost a year. Roughly 91 per cent of the stocks on the New York Stock Exchange traded lower, the most since March 2023.

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Whether this rout continues is anyone’s guess, but a 13 per cent gap between the S&P 500 and its 200-day moving average historically is a bad sign. The setup preceded losses for the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015 and 2018, data compiled Andrew Thrasher, technical analyst and portfolio manager at Financial Enhancement Group LLC, shows.

“The spark for this selloff is the inflation data, but coming into this week, momentum was already pretty stretched,” he said. “The rubber band can only go so far, and the momentum for many stocks was showing signs of exhaustion.”

What’s next? A line of defence for the S&P 500 could be at 4,909, its 20-day moving average (DMA), Thrasher said. Its 50-DMA will be another critical milestone. After that, traders will watch this year’s intraday low of 4,682 on Jan. 5. And then it’s the 4,600 level, which capped the S&P 500’s rally in July, but ultimately yielded to the risk-on momentum in December as the gauge powered to new highs.

Another issue for bulls is that fewer stocks have been participating in the rally this year, which could worsen the pain as indexes decline. Some 51 per cent of stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 50-day moving average, the fewest since November.

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That said, there are signs of fundamental strength. Corporate America’s profit machine keeps chugging, the U.S. consumer is solid and unemployment remains in check. But a relative lack of hedging demand amid a 15-week, 22 per cent S&P 500 rally is a worrisome sign of complacency. The so-called put-to-call skew on the Top 50 stocks in the S&P 500 is approaching the level last seen in the first quarter of 2021.

“Market participants had been conditioned to expect a linear decline in inflation,” Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, said. “They were hoping numbers would cooperate with a glide path toward a two per cent target, leading to the rate cuts that the market had priced in.”

— With assistance from Hema Parmar.

Bloomberg.com

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Canada Goose to get into eyewear through deal with Marchon

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TORONTO – Canada Goose Holdings Inc. says it has signed a deal that will result in the creation of its first eyewear collection.

The deal announced on Thursday by the Toronto-based luxury apparel company comes in the form of an exclusive, long-term global licensing agreement with Marchon Eyewear Inc.

The terms and value of the agreement were not disclosed, but Marchon produces eyewear for brands including Lacoste, Nike, Calvin Klein, Ferragamo, Longchamp and Zeiss.

Marchon plans to roll out both sunglasses and optical wear under the Canada Goose name next spring, starting in North America.

Canada Goose says the eyewear will be sold through optical retailers, department stores, Canada Goose shops and its website.

Canada Goose CEO Dani Reiss told The Canadian Press in August that he envisioned his company eventually expanding into eyewear and luggage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GOOS)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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TD CEO to retire next year, takes responsibility for money laundering failures

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TORONTO – TD Bank Group, which is mired in a money laundering scandal in the U.S., says chief executive Bharat Masrani will retire next year.

Masrani, who will retire officially on April 10, 2025, says the bank’s, “anti-money laundering challenges,” took place on his watch and he takes full responsibility.

The bank named Raymond Chun, TD’s group head, Canadian personal banking, as his successor.

As part of a transition plan, Chun will become chief operating officer on Nov. 1 before taking over the top job when Masrani steps down at the bank’s annual meeting next year.

TD also announced that Riaz Ahmed, group head, wholesale banking and president and CEO of TD Securities, will retire at the end of January 2025.

TD has taken billions in charges related to ongoing U.S. investigations into the failure of its anti-money laundering program.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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