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Where Canada stands if the global economy weakens – CTV News

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The latest forecast for the global economy shows a grim outlook of the world torn by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Almost all countries are expected to experience slower growth in 2022-23 due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, according to a recent report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

With the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, OECD recently lowered its estimates for global growth, slashing it to 3 per cent in 2022 from 4.5 per cent projected last year.

In 2023, the global growth is estimated to decline further to 2.75 per cent.

Current inflation across OECD countries in 2022 is 9 per cent, twice its earlier projections. The organization said that with the ongoing humanitarian crisis, high inflation could persist in rich countries and create food shortages for poorer ones. It called for global cooperation to prevent a food crisis by avoiding mistakes similar to those that led to the inequity in vaccine distribution.

“The price of this war is high and will need to be shared,” said Laurence Boone, the OECD’s chief economist.

The report said if the war continues to escalate, European economies relying heavily on Russian fuel may worsen, because alternative energy sources may not be enough or easy to ramp up.

“Governments also have to play a role through support targeted to those most vulnerable to rising food and energy inflation,” Ms. Boone said.

SO, WHERE DOES CANADA STAND?

Canada’s economy has largely recovered from the pandemic but the OECD report said the Bank of Canada should continue to raise its policy rate and shrink its balance sheet in order to return to its target inflation.

Along with income from high resource prices, a large part of the recovery, the report said, is due to its limited trade ties with economies that have been hit hard by the war in Ukraine.

Current inflation in Canada is 6.8 per cent– the highest since 1991 – but the country could follow the same path of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hike last week, the largest since 1994.

OECD expects the Bank of Canada to move towards a faster policy tightening so that the domestic productive capacity is not strained by the rising demand.

The Bank of Canada has been raising interest rates to curb the impact of inflation.

In a recent speech in Montreal, Bank of Canada deputy governor Toni Gravelle said, “sharp rebound in global demand for goods, along with pandemic-related restrictions and some weather-related events, created the perfect storm.”

With growing demand, the federal and provincial governments should focus on strong resource revenues to reduce the public debt, while targeting temporary income support for households facing living-cost pressures, the report said.

In its recent Financial System Review, the Bank of Canada said the share of highly indebted households had risen.

“In Canada, elevated levels of household debt and high house prices remain two key interconnected vulnerabilities,” the bank said in its annual Financial System Review.

INCREASE IN THE POLICY RATE

Following the relaxation of containment measures in late January, Canada has seen large output gains in contact-intensive services and strong contributions from resources sectors, construction, and manufacturing.

But the report has warned about the supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by labour shortages and high inflation. The food and energy price rises are already reducing an average Canadian household’s purchasing power and will negatively impact private spending, even as saving rates return to more normal levels, according to OECD.

OECD said more rate rises from the Bank of Canada could help tame the price pressures and “bring the monetary policy to neutral settings, where it neither stimulates nor weighs on the economy.”

According to the OECD, Canada’s policy rate is projected to increase to 2.5 per cent by early 2023. In case of continuing inflation, the organization forecasted an additional increase in rates.

In June, a second increase of 50-basis points by the Bank of Canada brought the benchmark interest rate to 1.5 per cent.

“We are taking these large steps because inflation has been persistently high, the economy is overheating, and the risk that elevated inflation will become entrenched has increased,” Bank of Canada’s Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry said in his remarks.

STRONG GROWTH TO CONTINUE AMID EXTERNAL SHOCKS

OECD projects Canada’s real GDP is to grow by 3.8 per cent in 2022 and said the country can withstand the economic shocks from the Russia-Ukraine war since it has limited trade links with hard-hit economies.

OECD reported that most economies are relatively tight and are now experiencing labour shortages with a sharp rise in vacancies. Recent data from Statistics Canada showed that the job vacancies climbed to 957,500 in the first quarter, the highest quarterly number on record.

The pandemic resulted in huge declines in international migration which contributed to the labour shortages in some countries.

For Canada, OECD said higher immigration in the country will help ease these labour shortages and the wage pressures in supply-constrained industries.

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Forecasters issue ‘bomb cyclone’ warning for B.C., with 120 km/h winds predicted

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VANCOUVER – Environment Canada is warning that a “bomb cyclone” is expected to bring powerful winds to most of Vancouver Island and the B.C. coast, with hurricane-force gusts of 120 km/h predicted for some areas this week.

The weather agency has issued more than a dozen warnings for coastal areas, saying the peak wind speeds are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Areas expected to be hit hardest include northern Vancouver Island and the north and central coasts, but gusts of up to 100 km/h are also forecast for heavily populated centres including Victoria and the Sunshine Coast.

The warnings stretch from Prince Rupert in the north to the southern tip of Vancouver Island, while Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley are the subject of a special weather statement.

The statement says residents should be prepared for power outages, downed trees and travel delays brought by what it calls a “significant fall storm.”

Environment Canada meteorologist Brian Proctor says a bomb cyclone is caused by a rapid drop in atmospheric pressure at the centre of a storm.

“Typically, with these bomb cyclones, we need a lot of cold air loss in the atmosphere to really eject itself into the low pressure centre, which really helps to deepen them, or helps them to explode,” he said in an interview Monday. “Typically, with this kind of storm, the key phenomena is going to be the wind associated.”

Environment Canada says the storm will develop about 400 kilometres off the coast of Vancouver Island on Tuesday, bringing high winds and heavy rain that afternoon.

Proctor said the storm will likely have the most impact on the west side of Vancouver Island and the central coast.

Matt MacDonald, the lead forecaster for the BC Wildfire Service, says in a social media post that models show B.C. coastal inlets could bring “hurricane force” winds and there may be waves of up to nine metres off Washington and Oregon’s coasts.

Proctor said he wouldn’t be surprised to see those kinds of conditions on B.C.’s coast.

“That would be fairly typical for this kind of track,” he said in an interview.

However, he said that would depend on the track of the low pressure centre and how close to Vancouver Island it comes in before it starts “hooking” northward.

BC Ferries said in a statement Monday that it is “closely monitoring the weather situation” and is in contact with Environment Canada.

While it initially said sailings were expected to proceed as scheduled, a later statement said that it would be providing updates on Tuesday about potential delays or cancellations.

“Our goal is to keep people moving without interruption wherever possible, and to keep our passengers informed as things change,” it said. “In the event of significant disruptions, we will work to reschedule travel or reroute passengers to the next available sailing.”

Electric utility BC Hydro said it has been monitoring the system “very closely” since last week, noting it has a “team of in-house meteorologists that track all weather events” to ensure it has crews and equipment in the right places when storms hit.

“We’re prepared for tomorrow’s storm and are ramping up crews – both BC Hydro crews and contractor crews,” it said in a statement Monday.

A La Nina winter is expected for B.C., and Proctor said the creation of bomb cyclones are amplified under those conditions, when ocean temperatures are cooler than normal.

He said the province should brace for similar storms, though not of the same magnitude.

“We’re really setting up for a fairly typical late fall, if I can put it that way, once we get past this big event of this bomb cyclone,” he said.

The bomb cyclone warnings come after a lightning storm overnight and early Monday covered parts of Metro Vancouver in hail.

B.C. has been hit by a series of powerful fall storms, including an atmospheric river that caused flash flooding in Metro Vancouver in mid-October.

The Insurance Bureau of Canada said in a news release last week that the October storm caused $110 million in insured damage claims, which prompted it to renew calls for the federal government to “fully fund” the National Flood Insurance Program.

It said insured losses related to severe weather in Canada now routinely exceed $3 billion annually and a new record has been set this year, reaching more than $7.7 billion.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 18, 2024.



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Dix out as health minister as Eby introduces a drastically reshaped B.C. NDP cabinet

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VICTORIA – Premier David Eby says “kitchen table” issues in British Columbia will be the focus for his revamped, postelection cabinet that was sworn in on Monday.

Eby’s new cabinet, comprising 23 ministers and four ministers of state, features a mix of new and familiar faces elected in last month’s narrow one-seat New Democrat election win.

“The things that concern your family around the kitchen table are going to be the issues that concern our team around the cabinet table,” he said after the cabinet introduction ceremony at government house.

“Ours will be a government that listens and ours will be a government that delivers,” said Eby, adding “that was the message that people sent us here to do this job in this recent election.”

“That is something every one of these members and everyone who was elected is going to carry with them in the work they do over the next four years,” he said.

He said the priorities for the new cabinet and the NDP government will include good paying jobs, family doctors for everybody, safe communities and affordable homes.

Eby shuffled veteran ministers Adrian Dix and Mike Farnworth and introduced to cabinet several newly elected members of the legislature.

Dix, the longtime health minister who guided the province through the COVID-19 pandemic, was moved to energy and climate solutions, while Josie Osborne, a two-term MLA and a former mayor of Tofino, will take on health.

Eby said Dix was moved to energy and climate solutions because of his track record of success.

“I need someone who can deliver and Adrian is that minister,” Eby said at a news conference. “It’s critically important for our government.”

Dix will be tasked with ensuring B.C. develops its clean energy systems and markets, he said.

Osborne said as a resident and a former mayor of a rural community, she understood the health-care needs of people outside B.C.’s urban areas.

“Everybody deserves access to health care,” said Osborne, acknowledging that many rural B.C. communities have concerns about recurring hospital emergency department closures. “I hear you. I see you.”

Farnworth, B.C.’s veteran solicitor general and public safety minister, was moved out of those portfolios and into transportation and transit, and will also serve as NDP house leader.

Garry Begg, a former RCMP officer, got one of the biggest cheers when he was introduced by Eby as the new solicitor general and public safety minister, elevating him from the backbench to cabinet.

Eby introduced Begg by the nickname “Landslide” in a nod to his wafer-thin 21-vote victory in Surrey that secured the government its one-seat majority.

Brenda Bailey, the former jobs minister and a Vancouver businesswoman, moves into the crucial finance portfolio.

Newly elected MLAs also featured in the cabinet, with former broadcaster Randene Neill becoming minister of land, water and resource management, and Vancouver Police Department veteran Terry Yung named minister of state for community safety.

Among the senior cabinet ministers who kept their jobs were Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon and Attorney General Niki Sharma, whose first duty upon being reappointed was accepting the Great Seal of British Columbia from Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin.

Austin opened Monday’s swearing-in ceremony by paying tribute to former premier John Horgan, who died of thyroid cancer last week.

She called Horgan “a fine man” who loved B.C., and said she would miss his “dad jokes” and “corny” sense of humour.

Eby said after the ceremony that his team would make affordability a priority issue.

“(For) those families hit hard by inflation and rising costs, our focus will be on controlling your costs, supporting you with the cost of everything from housing to car insurance and delivering a middle-income tax cut to support you and your family in these challenging times,” he said.

During the campaign, Eby promised a $1,000 tax cut for the average family, starting next year and benefiting 90 per cent of British Columbians.

Eby faced the challenge of filling the cabinet from a caucus reduced to 47 members in the Oct. 19 election, which gave the NDP the narrowest of majorities in the 93-seat legislature.

Former B.C. Liberal cabinet minister Mike Bernier, who ran unsuccessfully as an Independent last month in his Dawson Creek-area riding, said Eby had to find ways to bring rural representation into the cabinet even though most of his members were from Metro Vancouver or Vancouver Island.

Brittny Anderson, who won in Kootenay-Central, helped fulfil that goal, being appointed minister of state for local government and rural communities.

Energy and mining were carved into two separate portfolios, with Jagrup Brar taking on the latter, now renamed mining and critical minerals.

“We have two separate ministries dedicated to major economic growth sectors for us,” Eby said.

The legislature’s youngest MLA, Ravi Parmar, entered cabinet as forests minister.

B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad said Eby had been invisible when it comes to rural B.C., and he and his 44-member caucus were looking forward to holding the government to account on numerous issues.

Green Leader Sonia Furstenau said in a statement the party was pleased Eby appointed a cabinet with a strong representation of women in leadership roles and a female majority.

“We are particularly pleased to see Niki Sharma appointed as deputy premier and Attorney General, Tamara Davidson as Minister of Environment and Parks, and Bailey as Minister of Finance,” she said. These critical roles will have a significant impact on shaping the future of British Columbia.”

Eby said the NDP government continued to negotiate will the Greens about how the party’s two elected members could work with the government.

“I hope British Columbians see in this cabinet an experienced team that’s going to be focused on the priorities they sent us to Victoria to address,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 18, 2024.



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Prince Harry in Vancouver as Invictus Games school program launches online

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VANCOUVER – Prince Harry is in Vancouver for the launch of a campaign to raise awareness of the Invictus Games among children and youth, one day after surprising Canadian football fans by appearing at the Grey Cup in the city.

The prince visited Vancouver-area elementary and high school students at Seaforth Armoury.

The visit comes as the Invictus Games launches a lessons program for students from kindergarten to Grade 12, making educational resources on the event’s history and purpose available online.

Prince Harry founded the Invictus Games for wounded, injured and sick veterans and other service personnel about a decade ago, and the games will next be held in Vancouver and Whistler in February.

After meeting the students and engaging in a short game of sitting volleyball on the floor of the armoury, Prince Harry told the crowd the school program could help the Invictus Games “go even wider” and “into schools in Canada and hopefully around the world.”

The prince made a surprise appearance at the Grey Cup game at BC Place Stadium on Sunday, waving to the crowd and giving an interview before joining B.C. Lions owner Amar Doman on the field.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 18, 2024.

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