Where will B.C.'s election be won? Even identifying the battlegrounds is tough call | Canada News Media
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Where will B.C.’s election be won? Even identifying the battlegrounds is tough call

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VANCOUVER – The calculus of predicting an election and identifying its key battlegrounds is complex enough in any race, but observers of the British Columbia poll this month are facing a pair of unknown quantities that make the maths even more confounding.

Those are the significant redistribution that has added six ridings to the electoral map, and the collapse of the Opposition BC United party, formerly the BC Liberals, coupled with the rise of the upstart B.C. Conservatives as the NDP’s main challenger.

Kennedy Stewart, Vancouver’s former mayor who also sat in Parliament in Ottawa for the NDP from 2011 to 2018, said those factors make the Oct. 19 election tough to call.

“Ordinarily, in a race where it has familiar parties with familiar ridings, familiar boundaries, it’s a lot easier to predict what’s going to happen,” said Stewart.

“But those two main things — the boundary changes and the total upheaval on the centre-right — make this a very difficult election to predict.”

Mike McDonald was chief of staff for BC Liberal premier Christy Clark and is co-host of the Hotel Pacifico podcast on the province’s political scene. He said there are “always a few ridings that surprise you” but this year’s realignment of both ridings and parties adds even more volatility.

Even so, both McDonald and Stewart say some areas will face scrutiny for their ability to turn the race. These include seats that swung into NDP hands in 2020 on the back of a 14 per cent gap with the Liberals in the overall popular vote.

McDonald said a gap that wide created a “wave” pushing the NDP over the finish line in ridings that are not traditionally left-leaning, including districts in Fraser Valley communities such as Langley, Abbotsford and Chilliwack.

The NDP took five of seven ridings in those communities in 2020.

“In this election, the public polls are telling us it’s going to be much tighter, at least so far,” McDonald said of the popular vote. “And so, if we were single-digit margin on the popular vote provincewide — say, less than five per cent difference — then you’re going to see a lot of those NDP seats that were won in 2020 fall by the wayside.”

The question then turns to how far such a Conservative wave in the Fraser Valley might push into Metro Vancouver, McDonald said.

He pointed to the importance of Langley-Willowbrook, which includes the city of Langley, as a riding that had seen a trend of younger families moving in from bigger communities in the Lower Mainland.

“That riding is in question,” he said. “It’s gone federal Liberal in some recent elections, and it went NDP last time, of course. So a riding like Langley-Willowbrook might be where the NDP start to push back and resist the Conservative momentum.”

Stewart said attention should also be on deep urban ridings, historically places where the NDP has done well against centre-right parties.

He said that trend may not hold given what he described as the NDP’s shift toward the centre on issues such as the carbon tax and involuntary care for drug users and the mentally ill. Such policies could be designed to fend off the right but may lower voter enthusiasm among the NDP’s base, he said.

“I think that all adds up to say that even in traditional areas that would be safe for the NDP like Vancouver, you’re going to see some ridings that would be in play for the Conservatives that may not have been in play in the past,” Stewart said.

“So for example, areas like Vancouver-Little Mountain that’s had a significant boundary change, you may see that being a tighter race than you would normally see. You would see Langara, even (NDP Leader David Eby’s) own riding of Point Grey, which has gone back and forth between the centre-right and the NDP, probably in play as well.”

Stewart said he was also looking at ridings where the BC Green Party has traditionally been strong, watching how the NDP’s shift to the centre especially on issues such as the carbon tax would play out.

He noted the Greens face challenges as leader Sonia Furstenau switches ridings to face NDP cabinet member Grace Lore in Victoria-Beacon Hill.

Her deputy, Adam Olsen, has decided against running in Saanich North and the Islands, leaving no incumbent Greens defending their seats.

“I thought this wasn’t going to be great for the Greens,” Stewart said. “However, with the NDP kind of shifting to the right … I think it really does open an opportunity for the Greens to pick up disaffected NDP voters.”

McDonald said the Greens’ best shot at retaining a seat at the legislature may be West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, where their candidate Jeremy Valeriote lost to the BC Liberals’ Jordan Sturdy by 60 votes in 2020.

Valeriote returns to contest the riding but Sturdy isn’t running. Instead, Valeriote faces two other high-profile candidates — Order of B.C. recipient Yuri Fulmer for the Conservatives and former Union of BC Municipalities president Jen Ford for the NDP.

“That region has changed a lot,” McDonald said. “The Sea-to-Sky corridor is a bigger part of the population there (in the riding) than the West Vancouver part, so that one will be very unpredictable and I think that will definitely be one to watch.”

McDonald said he also foresees fierce competitions in traditional battlegrounds in Maple Ridge, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Courtenay-Comox and Skeena, as well as communities with demographic changes such as Surrey and Richmond.

He isn’t optimistic for the group of former BC United incumbents now running as Independents against Conservatives in traditionally centre-right settings.

“I think where the independent candidates will make the biggest impact are in ridings where the NDP have a chance of winning, and a strong Independent may dilute the Conservative vote and help elect an NDP MLA,” McDonald said, citing Vernon-Lumby as an example.

There, Lumby mayor and former BC United candidate Kevin Acton is running as an Independent against incumbent NDP candidate Harwinder Sandhu and the Conservatives’ Dennis Giesbrecht.

Incumbents running as Independents, such as Mike Bernier in Peace River South, Dan Davies in Peace River North, Tom Shypitka in Kootenay-Rockies, Coralee Oakes in Prince George-North Cariboo and Karin Kirkpatrick in West Vancouver-Capilano, will find re-election tough, said McDonald.

“In British Columbia’s history, it’s very hard for an Independent to win an election. It’s only happened a handful of times,” he said

But a strong candidate and local campaigning matter too, when margins between parties are slim.

“It’s winning the little local-issue battles, riding by riding. In 2017, that one riding, Courtenay-Comox, decided the fate of who governs B.C.,” he said, referring to the narrow win by the NDP’s Ronna-Rae Leonard that ultimately helped the NDP’s John Horgan become premier.

“So many things could have happened differently in that election to turn that riding the other way.

“That’s a good thing about elections. They should be unpredictable to some degree, because it’s up to voters decide at the end of the day.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 6, 2024.

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Virginia Democrats advance efforts to protect abortion, voting rights, marriage equality

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RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Democrats who control both chambers of the Virginia legislature are hoping to make good on promises made on the campaign trail, including becoming the first Southern state to expand constitutional protections for abortion access.

The House Privileges and Elections Committee advanced three proposed constitutional amendments Wednesday, including a measure to protect reproductive rights. Its members also discussed measures to repeal a now-defunct state constitutional ban on same-sex marriage and ways to revise Virginia’s process to restore voting rights for people who served time for felony crimes.

“This meeting was an important next step considering the moment in history we find ourselves in,” Democratic Del. Cia Price, the committee chair, said during a news conference. “We have urgent threats to our freedoms that could impact constituents in all of the districts we serve.”

The at-times raucous meeting will pave the way for the House and Senate to take up the resolutions early next year after lawmakers tabled the measures last January. Democrats previously said the move was standard practice, given that amendments are typically introduced in odd-numbered years. But Republican Minority Leader Todd Gilbert said Wednesday the committee should not have delved into the amendments before next year’s legislative session. He said the resolutions, particularly the abortion amendment, need further vetting.

“No one who is still serving remembers it being done in this way ever,” Gilbert said after the meeting. “Certainly not for something this important. This is as big and weighty an issue as it gets.”

The Democrats’ legislative lineup comes after Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, to the dismay of voting-rights advocates, rolled back a process to restore people’s civil rights after they completed sentences for felonies. Virginia is the only state that permanently bans anyone convicted of a felony from voting unless a governor restores their rights.

“This amendment creates a process that is bounded by transparent rules and criteria that will apply to everybody — it’s not left to the discretion of a single individual,” Del. Elizabeth Bennett-Parker, the patron of the voting rights resolution, which passed along party lines, said at the news conference.

Though Democrats have sparred with the governor over their legislative agenda, constitutional amendments put forth by lawmakers do not require his signature, allowing the Democrat-led House and Senate to bypass Youngkin’s blessing.

Instead, the General Assembly must pass proposed amendments twice in at least two years, with a legislative election sandwiched between each statehouse session. After that, the public can vote by referendum on the issues. The cumbersome process will likely hinge upon the success of all three amendments on Democrats’ ability to preserve their edge in the House and Senate, where they hold razor-thin majorities.

It’s not the first time lawmakers have attempted to champion the three amendments. Republicans in a House subcommittee killed a constitutional amendment to restore voting rights in 2022, a year after the measure passed in a Democrat-led House. The same subcommittee also struck down legislation supporting a constitutional amendment to repeal an amendment from 2006 banning marriage equality.

On Wednesday, a bipartisan group of lawmakers voted 16-5 in favor of legislation protecting same-sex marriage, with four Republicans supporting the resolution.

“To say the least, voters enacted this (amendment) in 2006, and we have had 100,000 voters a year become of voting age since then,” said Del. Mark Sickles, who sponsored the amendment as one of the first openly gay men serving in the General Assembly. “Many people have changed their opinions of this as the years have passed.”

A constitutional amendment protecting abortion previously passed the Senate in 2023 but died in a Republican-led House. On Wednesday, the amendment passed on party lines.

If successful, the resolution proposed by House Majority Leader Charniele Herring would be part of a growing trend of reproductive rights-related ballot questions given to voters. Since 2022, 18 questions have gone before voters across the U.S., and they have sided with abortion rights advocates 14 times.

The voters have approved constitutional amendments ensuring the right to abortion until fetal viability in nine states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Ohio and Vermont. Voters also passed a right-to-abortion measure in Nevada in 2024, but it must be passed again in 2026 to be added to the state constitution.

As lawmakers debated the measure, roughly 18 members spoke. Mercedes Perkins, at 38 weeks pregnant, described the importance of women making decisions about their own bodies. Rhea Simon, another Virginia resident, anecdotally described how reproductive health care shaped her life.

Then all at once, more than 50 people lined up to speak against the abortion amendment.

“Let’s do the compassionate thing and care for mothers and all unborn children,” resident Sheila Furey said.

The audience gave a collective “Amen,” followed by a round of applause.

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Associated Press writer Geoff Mulvihill in Cherry Hill, New Jersey, contributed to this report.

___

Olivia Diaz is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative.

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Trump chooses anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary

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NEW YORK (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump says he will nominate anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, putting him in charge of a massive agency that oversees everything from drug, vaccine and food safety to medical research and the social safety net programs Medicare and Medicaid.

“For too long, Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation when it comes to Public Health,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social site announcing the appointment. Kennedy, he said, would “Make America Great and Healthy Again!”

Kennedy, a former Democrat who ran as an independent in this year’s presidential race, abandoned his bid after striking a deal to give Trump his endorsement with a promise to have a role in health policy in the administration.

He and Trump have since become good friends, with Kennedy frequently receiving loud applause at Trump’s rallies.

The expected appointment was first reported by Politico Thursday.

A longtime vaccine skeptic, Kennedy is an attorney who has built a loyal following over several decades of people who admire his lawsuits against major pesticide and pharmaceutical companies. He has pushed for tighter regulations around the ingredients in foods.

With the Trump campaign, he worked to shore up support among young mothers in particular, with his message of making food healthier in the U.S., promising to model regulations imposed in Europe. In a nod to Trump’s original campaign slogan, he named the effort “Make America Healthy Again.”

It remains unclear how that will square with Trump’s history of deregulation of big industries, including food. Trump pushed for fewer inspections of the meat industry, for example.

Kennedy’s stance on vaccines has also made him a controversial figure among Democrats and some Republicans, raising question about his ability to get confirmed, even in a GOP-controlled Senate. Kennedy has espoused misinformation around the safety of vaccines, including pushing a totally discredited theory that childhood vaccines cause autism.

He also has said he would recommend removing fluoride from drinking water. The addition of the material has been cited as leading to improved dental health.

HHS has more than 80,000 employees across the country. It houses the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Medicare and Medicaid programs and the National Institutes of Health.

Kennedy’s anti-vaccine nonprofit group, Children’s Health Defense, currently has a lawsuit pending against a number of news organizations, among them The Associated Press, accusing them of violating antitrust laws by taking action to identify misinformation, including about COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines. Kennedy took leave from the group when he announced his run for president but is listed as one of its attorneys in the lawsuit.

__ Seitz reported from Washington.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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In Cyprus, Ukrainians learn how to dispose of landmines that kill and maim hundreds

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NICOSIA, Cyprus (AP) — In a Cypriot National Guard camp, Ukrainians are being trained on how to identify, locate and dispose of landmines and other unexploded munitions that litter huge swaths of their country, killing and maiming hundreds of people, including children.

Analysts say Ukraine is among the countries that are the most affected by landmines and discarded explosives, as a result of Russia’s ongoing war.

According to U.N. figures, some 399 people have been killed and 915 wounded from landmines and other munitions since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, equal to the number of casualties reported from 2014-2021. More than 1 in 10 of those casualties have been children.

The economic impact is costing billions to the Ukrainian economy. Landmines and other munitions are preventing the sowing of 5 million hectares, or 10%, of the country’s agricultural land.

Cyprus stepped up to offer its facilities as part of the European Union’s Military Assistance Mission to Ukraine. So far, almost 100 Ukrainian armed forces personnel have taken part in three training cycles over the last two years, said Cyprus Foreign Ministry spokesperson Theodoros Gotsis.

“We are committed to continuing this support for as long as it takes,” Gotsis told the Associated Press, adding that the Cyprus government has covered the 250,000 euro ($262,600) training cost.

Cyprus opted to offer such training owing to its own landmine issues dating back five decades when the island nation was ethnically divided when Turkey invaded following a coup that sought union with Greece. The United Nations has removed some 27,000 landmines from a buffer zone that cuts across the island, but minefields remain on either side. The Cypriot government says it has disposed of all anti-personnel mines in line with its obligations under an international treaty that bans the use of such munitions.

In Cyprus, Ukrainians undergo rigorous theoretical and practical training over a five-week Basic Demining and Clearance course that includes instruction on distinguishing and safely handling landmines and other explosive munitions, such as rockets, 155 mm artillery shells, rocket-propelled grenades and mortar shells.

Theoretical training uses inert munitions identical to the actual explosives.

Most of the course is comprised of hands-on training focusing on the on-site destruction of unexploded munitions using explosives, the chief training officer told the Associated Press. The officer spoke on condition of anonymity because he’s not authorized to disclose his identity for security reasons.

“They’re trained on ordnance disposal using real explosives,” the officer said. “That will be the trainees’ primary task when they return.”

Cypriot officials said the Ukrainian trainees did not want to be either interviewed or photographed.

Defusing discarded munitions or landmines in areas where explosive charges can’t be used — for instance, near a hospital — is not part of this course because that’s the task of highly trained teams of disposal experts whose training can last as long as eight months, the officer said.

Trainees, divided into groups of eight, are taught how to operate metal detectors and other tools for detecting munitions like prodders — long, thin rods which are used to gently probe beneath the ground’s surface in search of landmines and other explosive ordnance.

Another tool is a feeler, a rod that’s used to detect booby-trapped munitions. There are many ways to booby-trap such munitions, unlike landmines which require direct pressure to detonate.

“Booby-trapped munitions are a widespread phenomenon in Ukraine,” the chief training officer explained.

Training, primarily conducted by experts from other European Union countries, takes place both in forested and urban areas at different army camps and follows strict safety protocols.

The short, intense training period keeps the Ukrainians focused.

“You see the interest they show during instruction: they ask questions, they want to know what mistakes they’ve made and the correct way of doing it,” the officer said.

Humanitarian data and analysis group ACAPS said in a Jan. 2024 report that 174,000 sq. kilometers (67,182 sq. miles) or nearly 29% of Ukraine’s territory needs to be surveyed for landmines and other explosive ordnance.

More than 10 million people are said to live in areas where demining action is needed.

Since 2022, Russian forces have used at least 13 types of anti-personnel mines, which target people. Russia never signed the 1997 Ottawa Convention banning the use of anti-personnel mines, but the use of such mines is nonetheless considered a violation of its obligations under international law.

Russia also uses 13 types of anti-tank mines.

The International Campaign to Ban Landmines said in its 2023 Landmine Monitor report that Ukrainian government forces may have also used antipersonnel landmines in contravention of the Mine Ban Treaty in and around the city of Izium during 2022, when the city was under Russian control.

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