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Why are Covid cases rising among double vaccinated? – Deccan Herald

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By Jamie Hartmann-Boyce for The Conversation,

Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK’s chief scientific adviser, has announced that 40 per cent of people admitted to hospital with Covid in the UK have had two doses of a coronavirus vaccine.

At first glance, this rings very serious alarm bells, but it shouldn’t. The vaccines are still working very well.

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There are several factors at play that explain why such a high proportion of cases are in the fully vaccinated.

Covid vaccines are extremely effective, but none 100 per cent so. This itself isn’t surprising – flu vaccines aren’t 100 per cent effective either.

Yet in the US alone flu vaccines are estimated to prevent millions of cases of illness, tens of thousands of hospitalisations and thousands of deaths every year. The Covid vaccines are doing the same in the UK right now – all one has to do is compare the curves from the winter wave with those from this summer.

As cases are rising, hospitalisations and deaths are rising too, but not at anywhere near the same level as they were in the winter. In the second half of December 2020 – a time when UK case rates were similar to what they are now – about 3,800 people were being admitted to hospital with Covid each day.

The average now is around 700. So though that’s still higher than we wish it was, it’s a lot lower than it was the last time we had this many infections.

Covid is also growing among the vaccinated because the number of people in the UK who have had both doses is continuing to rise. At the time of writing, 88 per cent of UK adults have had a first dose and 69 per cent a second. As more and more of the population is vaccinated, the relative proportion of those with Covid who have had both jabs will rise.

If you imagine a hypothetical scenario in which 100 per cent of the population is double vaccinated, then 100 per cent of people with Covid, and in hospital with Covid, will also have had both jabs. As with deaths, this doesn’t mean the vaccine isn’t working. It just means the vaccine rollout is going very well.

Also read: WHO warns of ‘long term’ Covid impact on mental health

We also need to remember that the vaccine rollout in the UK has systematically targeted people at the highest risk from Covid.

Older people and people with health conditions that make them more vulnerable were the first to get vaccinated. Once vaccinated, these people (including me) are at much lower risk from Covid than they would have been otherwise – but they are still at risk.

That means that when we compare people with both vaccinations being hospitalised to those who haven’t had both doses, we aren’t comparing like with like. People with both vaccinations are more likely to have been at greater risk from Covid in the first place. This makes them both more likely to be hospitalised and more likely to have already received both of their vaccine doses.

Is Covid different in the vaccinated?

The latest data from Public Health England suggests that against the delta variant, which is now dominant in UK, two doses of any of the vaccines available in Britain are estimated to offer 79 per cent protection against symptomatic Covid and 96 per cent protection against hospitalisation.

We don’t have clear estimates yet from Public Health England on the level of protection against death caused by the delta variant – fortunately, this is partly driven by the fact deaths have been relatively low during this third wave in the UK.

But for the alpha variant, Public Health England data estimates the Pfizer vaccine to be between 95 per cent and 99 per cent effective at preventing death from Covid-19, with the AstraZeneca vaccine estimated to be between 75 per cent and 99 per cent effective. The evidence we have so far doesn’t suggest that the delta variant substantially changes this picture.

There’s lots we still need to learn about how people with both vaccine doses respond to getting infected with the virus. The UK’s Covid Symptom Study is looking at this.

One of the key questions that remain is who is at most risk. Emerging data – released in a preprint, so yet to be reviewed by other scientists – suggests people who are overweight or obese, poorer people, and people with health conditions causing frailty seem to be more likely to get infected after having both jabs.

The preprint also suggests that age itself doesn’t seem to affect chances of developing Covid after being vaccinated, nor does having a long-term condition such as asthma, diabetes or heart disease – but we need more data on this to be sure of these findings.

Generally, the Covid Symptom Study has found that people report the same Covid symptoms whether or not they’ve been vaccinated, but that people who’ve been vaccinated have fewer symptoms over a shorter period of time, suggesting less serious illness. The most commonly reported symptoms in people who had had both doses were headache, runny nose, sneezing, sore throat and loss of smell. 

(The author is a Senior Research Fellow, Departmental Lecturer and Director of Evidence-Based Healthcare DPhil Programme, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, University of Oxford)

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York Region urges you to get up to date on vaccinations – NewmarketToday.ca

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York Region Public Health is reminding residents to keep up to date on their vaccinations as National Immunization Awareness Week begins.

The regional municipality said it is important to stay up to date on recommended vaccinations to ensure protection from contagious diseases. That includes updated COVID-19 vaccinations for vulnerable populations, recommended as part of a spring vaccination campaign.

“We know vaccines are safe and the best way to stay protected against vaccine-preventable disease,” the region said in a news release. 

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National Immunization Awareness Week runs from April 22 to 30, with this year’s theme being “Protect your future, get immunized.” 

This spring, the region is still doing COVID-19 vaccinations. While walk-ins are no longer available as of April 2, you can book an appointment to visit a York Region clinic.

The spring COVID-19 vaccination campaign is aimed at more vulnerable groups who have received a COVID-19 vaccine before. Those include seniors, those living in seniors living facilities like long-term care homes, immunocompromised individuals and those in Indigenous households who are 55 or older. Public health also recommends the COVID-19 vaccine for those who have not yet received one.

York Region Public Health is also reminding residents of the need for other vaccines. 

Measles cases have sprung up in Ontario and York Region recently. The region is recommending that people ensure they previously raised two valid doses of the measles vaccine. The region will also start providing measles vaccines April 29 for those overdue and for who do not have access to the vaccine through a health-care provider.

School-aged vaccinations are also available for free for children in junior kindergarten to Grade 12.

You can access immunization information at york.ca/immunziations or by contacting Access York at 1-877-464-9675.

“Vaccination helps protect everyone in our families, communities and schools,” the region said. “ By continuing to stay up to date on your immunizations, you help protect infants who are too young to be vaccinated and those not able to get vaccinated due to medical conditions.”

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Bird flu raises concern of WHO – ecns

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The World Health Organization (WHO) said the rising number of bird flu cases has raised “great concern” because it had an “extremely high” mortality rate among those who had been infected around the world.

The WHO’s data show that from 2003 through March 2024, a total of 889 worldwide human cases of H5N1 infection had been recorded in 23 countries, resulting in 463 deaths and a 52 percent mortality rate. The majority of deaths occurred in Southeast Asian countries and Egypt.

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The most recent death was in Vietnam in late March, when a 21-year-old male without underlying conditions died of the infection after bird hunting. So far, cases in Europe and the United States have been mild.

Jeremy Farrar, chief scientist at the WHO, said recently that H5N1, predominantly started in poultry and ducks, “has spread effectively over the course of the last one or two years to become a global zoonotic — animal — pandemic”.

He said that the great concern is that the virus is increasingly infecting mammals and then develops the ability to infect humans. It would become critical if the virus develops the ability to “go from human-to-human transmission”, Farrar said.

In the past month, health officials have detected H5N1 in cows and goats from 29 dairy herds across eight states in the US, saying it is an alarming development because those livestock weren’t considered susceptible to H5N1.

The development worries health experts and officials because humans regularly come into contact with livestock on farms. In the US, there are only two recorded cases of human infection — one in 2022 and one in April this year in Texas. Both infected individuals worked in close proximity to livestock, but their symptoms were mild.

Wenqing Zhang, head of the WHO’s global influenza program, told the Daily Mail that “bird-to-cow, cow-to-cow and cow-to-bird transmission have also been registered during these current outbreaks, which suggest that the virus may have found other routes of transition than we previously understood”.

Zhang said that multiple herds of cow infections in the US states meant “a further step of the virus spillover to mammals”.

The virus has been found in raw milk, but the Texas Health Services department has said the cattle infections don’t present a concern for the commercial milk supply, as dairies are required to destroy milk from sick cows. In addition, pasteurization also kills the virus.

Darin Detwiler, a former food safety adviser to the Food and Drug Administration and the US Agriculture Department, said that Americans should avoid rare meat and runny eggs while the outbreak in cattle is going on to avoid the possibility of infection from those foods.

Nevertheless, both the WHO and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said that the risk the virus poses to the public is still low. Currently no human-to-human infection has been detected.

On the potential HN51 public health risk, Farrar cautioned that vaccine development was not “where we need to be”.

According to a report by Barron’s, under the current plan by the US Health and Human Services Department, if there is an H5N1 pandemic, the government would be able to supply a few hundred thousand doses within weeks, then 135 million within about four months.

People would need two doses of the shot to be fully protected. That means the US government would be able to inoculate about 68 million people — 20 percent — of 330 million in case of an outbreak.

The situation is being closely watched by scientists and health officials. Some experts said that a high mortality rate might not necessarily hold true in the event the virus became contagious among people.

“We may not see the level of mortality that we’re really concerned about,” Seema Lakdawala, a virologist at Emory University, told The New York Times. “Preexisting immunity to seasonal flu strains will provide some protection from severe disease.”

Agencies contributed to this story.


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Peel Region has major childhood vaccination backlog – CBC.ca

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Peel Region has a massive childhood vaccination backlog, with more than half of children missing at least one mandated vaccine dose.

That’s the warning from Peel’s acting medical officer of health, who says the lack of school immunizations is spelling trouble for communicable diseases.

“Without significant dedicated resources, we estimate it will take seven years to complete screening catch up and achieve pre-pandemic coverage rates,” said Dr. Katherine Bingham in a presentation to Peel council on April 11.

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She says low immunization coverage among students significantly increases the risk for the re-emergence of vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles.

Unless children have a valid exception, the following vaccines are mandatory for Ontario school children: diphtheria, tetanus, polio, measles, mumps, rubella, meningitis, whooping cough and chicken pox. Several other vaccines are strongly recommended by public health units and doctors. 

Advocates, doctors and Peel public health are advocating for more attention to the issue, more money from the province for public health and the formation of an action plan to quickly address the currently low vaccination rates.

Peel stacks lower than the provincial average on a number of vaccinations. For example, just over 37 per cent of seven-year-olds had been vaccinated against measles compared to more than 52 per cent province-wide as of August 31, 2022.

Peel Public Health says many children missed vaccinations they would have received at school or a doctor’s offices. Reporting of vaccines and enforcement also fell behind in the pandemic. To tackle the backlog more quickly, Peel Public Health opened public clinics for mandatory vaccines as of April 1 of this year.

‘We never thought it would be us’: mother

Jill Promoli, a Mississauga mother, lost her son, Jude, to a school flu outbreak eight years ago even though he was vaccinated. She’s now an illness prevention advocate championing immunizations and said the low vaccination rates in Peel children are “very concerning.”

“We never thought it would be us, but it is going to be someone,” said Promoli, who’s also a Peel District School Board Trustee, but did not speak to CBC Toronto in that capacity.

“The reason that we do vaccinate against these diseases is not because they’re inconvenient or uncomfortable, but it’s because people do die from them,” she said.

Jill Promoli, second from right, a Mississauga mother, says 50 per cent of Peel children missing a mandatory vaccine dose right now is “very concerning”. The Promoli family had this portrait taken before Jude, right, passed away eight years ago due to a school flu outbreak. (Submitted by Jill Promoli)

Promoli says she’s also concerned about children who are vaccinated being exposed, given vaccines do not provide complete immunity.

Pediatric and infectious disease specialist, Dr. Anna Banerji, called the proportion of Peel students missing a mandated dose “very high.”

“It needs to be addressed,” she said.

She says part of the problem in the region is access, including to family doctors, but the region also has a diverse population, which can mean additional challenges.

“I think that language and cultural support and trying to get these kids vaccinated will be very important,” she said.

Banerji also pointed to vaccine hesitancy being higher for some coming out of the pandemic.

She says seven years is far too long to have school-aged children not protected against such concerning diseases.

Needs will only grow, says Caledon mayor

The public health unit says they have less money than several nearby health units to try and tackle the issue, receiving one of the lowest provincial per capita funding rates in the province. 

For cost-shared programs, in Peel, public health was funded by the province at approximately $34 per capita in 2022, while Toronto and Hamilton each received $49 per capita, according to the health authority’s report. 

Caledon Mayor Annette Groves says the funding needs to change now to address problems that will continue to climb for Peel Public Health.

“Peel is a growing region and there will be greater need for funding as our resident population increases,” she said in a statement.

Caledon Mayor Groves at Queen's Park.
Caledon Mayor Annette Groves says Peel needs to receive more money from the province to handle public health in a growing population. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

Province says funding has been increasing

Asked why Peel Public Health gets fewer dollars per capita, Ministry of Health spokesperson Hannah Jensen didn’t dispute Toronto and Hamilton received more funding per capita.

“Since 2018, our government has increased our investment into Peel Public Health by nearly 20 per cent,” she said in a statement.

Jensen said that’s in addition to the $100 million the provincial government invested into public health units across the province to provide support throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

The government has restored a funding model where the province pays 75 percent of cost sharing for public health units and municipalities including Peel pay 25 percent, she said, noting the province had been paying 70 per cent for some time, so this represented an increase.

The province also increased base funding by one per cent per year, over the next three years, starting this year for public health units and municipalities including Peel, she added. 

Asked why Peel would still receive a lower per capita rate that some of its neighbours, the province did not respond directly. 

She says the government is working closely with its partners to get children caught up on vaccines.

Teenage girl gets a vaccination from a Toronto Public Health nurse at a school immunization clinic.
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Health says since 2018, the provincial government has increased investment into Peel Public Health by nearly 20 per cent. Peel Public Health says it receives significantly less from the province per capita than nearby Toronto or Hamilton and is advocating for more money. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

Promoli says the per capita discrepancy in funding between regions is “shocking” and diverse populations need more, not less.

“It’s always important to try to meet people where they are,” she said. “To hear those questions, to hear the reasons why people are hesitant or even refusing and to try to understand…and then find the best ways to help people make decisions that will best protect their families.”

Peel Public Health says it plans to return to council soon with more details about the challenges and its plans to address them.

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