The COVID-19 outbreak is currently more severe in Canada’s two largest provinces than it is in British Columbia.
That’s not opinion; it’s fact.
Whether you go by confirmed cases or hospitalizations, by raw numbers or a per capita comparison, the virus has steadily grown in Ontario and Quebec.
But in B.C., hospitalizations and active cases have been flat for the last week. The disease growth curve, at least at this point, has been flattened.
So, what’s the explanation?
“It’s very hard to know exactly why,” said B.C.’s chief medical health officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, when asked about the difference on Monday. “Some parts of it are luck, and some parts of it are being prepared.”
It’s undoubtedly true that B.C. was able to learn from having a few isolated cases in January and February. It’s also true the province has been lucky not to have a viral “super-spreader,” as has been the case in other places.
However, there’s a little bit more to it than that.
Preparation, preparation, preparation
Dr. David Fisman, an epidemiology professor at the University of Toronto, said British Columbia’s institutions for disease control have long been a model for the rest of the country.
“You’ve got a functioning public health system, with integration of lab and epidemiology and service in British Columbia,” he said. “Here in Ontario, we have had difficulties with public health leadership culture for a long time.”
Fisman says B.C. was able to, as Henry put it, “take a lot of measures early” because they had the lines of communication to quickly scale up a unified response relatively early.
It meant there was a unified response and messaging to the public underway before COVID-19 was on the radar for many politicians.
Whereas in Ontario, it took a little longer for everyone to get on the same page.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford “has actually stepped up as a leader,” said Fisman. “[But] one has to realize Doug Ford’s not a public health physician. He’s not a microbiologist, and he’s not an epidemiologist. So, he’s very much dependent on the advice he’s given.”
“You could see this coming,” said Fisman. “There was talk in the epidemiology field that we really can’t have a million people return to Ontario from places with unfettered COVID transmission. It’s gonna be a very bad thing for us, but we didn’t use that opportunity.”
At the same time, British Columbia was fortunate that the scheduled spring break for students was later than in other jurisdictions — allowing health officials to adapt.
“We learned from Quebec,” said Henry.
“Their March break was two weeks earlier than ours, and people were coming back … from places like France, and coming home from March break and getting sick.”
WATCH | Why B.C. is flattening the curve:
Dr. Bonnie Henry says luck, preparation and the timing of the province’s later spring break are factors in slowing down the pace of COVID-19 cases. 1:19
Henry’s role
Fisman also credited B.C. for putting in an early measure to stop health-care workers from working at multiple care homes, which was a big factor in preventing community transmission.
But ultimately he believes a big part of B.C.’s fortune comes from the person who speaks to British Columbians at every news conference.
“Bonnie Henry stays at press conferences and answers the questions … and doesn’t shade the truth. She’s frank and honest and emotional with people,” he said.
“And given that part of this response depends on being altruistic and doing the right thing to help other people who we will never meet, having a leader who can articulate how we’re all in this together and make a convincing case for why you need to do your part … is very important.”
Playing ‘the hand we’re dealt’
Henry’s direct experience in overseeing Toronto’s SARS and H1N1 outbreaks is the type of background that’s impossible to quantify in a situation like this. Henry herself doesn’t mention it at news conferences.
“Part of [curve-flattening] was the system we had in place to detect cases … and part of it was luck, and part of it was timing,” she said.
But Fisman believes it has been crucial.
“We all play the hand we’re dealt. [British Columbia] has played the hand they’ve been dealt very, very well. And you can see it in the numbers,” he said.
“Ontario has played the hand that it’s dealt in a way that is not the United States … but I think Ontario is lagging.”
WINNIPEG – Police in Winnipeg say one person has died and three more were injured after a pickup truck smashed into a bus shelter on Portage Avenue during the morning commute.
Police say those injured are in stable condition in hospital.
It began after a Ford F150 truck hit a pedestrian and bus shelter on Portage Avenue near Bedson Street before 8 a.m.
Another vehicle, a power pole and a gas station were also damaged before the truck came to a stop.
The crash forced commuters to be rerouted and knocked out power in the area for more than a thousand Manitoba Hydro customers.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
KAMLOOPS, B.C. – A 35-year-old man has been charged with second-degree murder after his mother’s body was found near her Kamloops, B.C., home a year ago.
Mounties say 57-year-old Jo-Anne Donovan was found dead about a week after she had been reported missing.
RCMP says its serious crime unit launched an investigation after the body was found.
Police say they arrested Brandon Donovan on Friday after the BC Prosecution Service approved the charge.
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.
“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.
Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.
But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.
Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.
“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.
“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.
A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.
It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.
More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.
“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.
In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.
“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
— With files from The Associated Press
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
