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Why Biden's Afghanistan exit wasn't about good politics – CNN

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(CNN)In ending America’s longest war, President Joe Biden did something popular. It was never going to help him politically.

That was true before damaging images of chaos and desperation filled American television screens last week. The reason is that public opinion about the Afghanistan conflict, as with most overseas events and issues, remains ill-defined and loosely held.
Even after 20 years, the conflict that ended with the lightning Taliban takeover represents a distant blur for most Americans. Only a small sliver of the US population has a personal connection to the war through service in the all-volunteer military. Its duration through years of diminishing troop levels and casualties led much of the public to tune the story out.
Pollsters who have tracked the subject describe opinions no firmer than jello. Asked whether the American military should stay or leave, majorities say leave. Asked whether the military should leave or stay to continue counterterrorism operations, majorities say stay.
Either way, voters have not counted Afghanistan among their top-priority concerns. Survey research on foreign policy, observed Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, “is always very fluid.”
That reality means that neither side of the long-running debate on the war can unambiguously claim the upper hand in public sentiment.
“It’s a myth to say there was widespread public pressure on the administration to leave,” said Peter Feaver, a Duke University scholar on civilian-military relations. “The general public was ambivalent. This was a retreat of choice, not a retreat of necessity.”
Feaver served on the White House National Security Council under President George W. Bush, who launched the war in Afghanistan in late 2001. But Democratic opinion analysts aligned with Biden see the same ambivalence.
“If we have a big debate over who lost Afghanistan, most people aren’t going to tune in to watch,” says Democratic pollster Geoff Garin. “It’s just not an important question for a large majority of people.”
Biden’s public standing has remained remarkably stable through his first seven months in office. More Americans have approved than disapproved of his performance throughout.
But his numbers began to erode before the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan in the middle of the US withdrawal. A Gallup poll completed at the beginning of last week showed Biden’s approval at 49%, down from 56% in June.
Anderson ascribes that drop mostly to the resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic, which Biden has made his top presidential priority. The pandemic in turn heightens uncertainty about the economic recovery at a time Americans report growing worries about inflation.
On top of those problems, Afghanistan has now heaped nightmarish television images for any commander-in-chief: of fear, chaos, disorder, defeat. Even Americans who don’t follow news reports closely have heard about a major setback on Biden’s watch.

Much remains to be seen

The story remains far from over. Since the Afghan government and security forces gave way to Taliban control, no evidence has emerged of widespread loss of life.
US troops suffered no casualties as they regained control of the Kabul airport. If they can safely evacuate tens of thousands of American citizens and Afghan allies until, and perhaps beyond, Biden’s August 31 deadline, the White House can replace a story of initial humiliation and failure with one of competence and success.
“The impact of the images from the first day can and will recede if there’s some feeling that things have gotten better,” Garin said. “The feeling that (leaving Afghanistan) was the right thing to do will bounce back as long as nothing terrible happens.”
That sentiment resonates especially with important elements of the modern Democratic coalition, which relies on disproportionate support from younger voters. Millennials who grew up watching the agonizing struggles of US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, Anderson said, are significantly less likely than their elders to support the projection of American military power abroad.
Among other voters, “I certainly don’t think there’s any kind of benefit waiting,” Anderson added. With past supporters of the war warning about rising risks of terrorism, “If there’s an attack, that changes a lot.”
An AP-NORC survey released early last week underscored the hazy outlook. It showed nearly two-thirds of Americans believe the war in Afghanistan wasn’t worth fighting. But just under half approved of Biden’s management of international affairs, and his approval rating ticked down slightly.
The Afghanistan outcome itself represents only part of the episode’s effect on Biden’s presidency. After public attention shifts elsewhere, it may influence how voters view Biden as he tackles issues closer to home.
That includes evaluations of his competence, character, judgment and reaction to adversity in the White House. In his public remarks last week, he responded defiantly to harsh criticism from the media and members of both parties.
If some observers found him excessively stubborn and defensive, the President also made clear it wasn’t polls that made him act on his long-expressed opposition to extending the war.
“It’s time to end this war,” Biden repeated on Friday. Under ferocious political attack, he left no doubt that he believes it.

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Chris Stark: Rishi Sunak has set us back, head of climate change watchdog says – BBC.com

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Rishi Sunak has “set us back” on climate change and left the UK at risk of falling behind other countries, the head of a government watchdog has said.

Chris Stark, head of the Climate Change Committee (CCC), told the BBC the prime minister had “clearly not” prioritised the issue as much as his predecessors.

He accused Mr Sunak of sending the world a message that the UK is now “less ambitious” than it once was.

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A government spokesperson said: “Our record on net zero speaks for itself.”

Mr Stark said the country had made enormous progress towards reaching the climate target of net zero by 2050 under Theresa May and Boris Johnson.

But Mr Sunak’s Downing Street had sent a message to the rest of the world that “the UK is less ambitious on climate than it once was, and that is extremely hard to recover”.

Reaching net zero means no longer adding to the total amount of greenhouse gases – such as carbon dioxide and methane – in the atmosphere. The government is bound to this target by law.

The CCC is a statutory body that gives independent advice to ministers and assesses progress on targets.

A government spokesperson told the BBC: “We are the first major economy to halve greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 and have set into law one of the most ambitious 2035 climate change targets of any major economy,” referring to the target to cut emissions from manufacturing by about two-thirds by 2035.

“But we need to reach our net zero goals in a sustainable way, so we have taken action to protect our energy security, ease the burdens on hard-working people and provide transparency about the choices involved so that we bring people with us in meeting our climate targets.”

In the autumn, Mr Sunak delayed a ban on new petrol and diesel cars, and weakened targets on phasing out gas boilers, as part of a major shift in green policy.

“I think it’s set us back,” Mr Stark said.

“So I think we have moved from a position where we were really at the forefront, pushing ahead as quickly as we could on something that I believe to be fundamental to the UK economy, fundamentally beneficial to the people living in this country, whether you care about the climate or not.”

He said the UK had been successful in “decarbonising how we generate electricity, especially by closing coal-fired powerplants”.

But to get to net zero, more needs to be done on “how we heat homes, or how we deal with the industrial emissions that we have in this country, what we do with farming [and] transport systems”.

“It’s in those other areas that we see the gap,” he said.

“I definitely feel we’re at risk.”

The full interview with Mr Stark will be broadcast tomorrow on Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg

Mr Stark also said it was “desperately disappointing” that the SNP government in Edinburgh had ditched one of its climate targets this week. But he said the targets had been “over-ambitious” from the start.

“I love ambition, but it only matters if you actually deliver against that,” he said.

“Now what we’ve seen in this week is desperately disappointing from the Scots, they’ve pulled away essentially the target framework, almost in its entirety, leaving the net zero target, but removing the targets for 2030 and 2040.

“And the reason they’ve done that is because the 2030 target was over-ambitious.”

A Scottish Government spokesperson told the BBC: “Scotland’s 2045 net zero target is not changing.

“The proposed new bill will retain our legal commitment to 2045 alongside annual reporting on progress, while introducing a target approach based on five-yearly carbon budgets – an approach utilised in both the UK and Wales, and which aligns with the nuanced and practical approaches to reducing emissions advocated by the Climate Change Committee.

“Our legal commitment to reach net zero by 2045 steadfastly remains, and with emissions in Scotland already nearly cut in half, we are well positioned to continue leading on climate action that is fair, ambitious and capable of rising to the emergency before us.”

Mr Stark, who is standing down from his job, called on Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer to be more “bold” when it comes to climate change.

“You regularly hear Ed Miliband [the shadow net zero secretary] talk about the transition, of course, on the Labour side, but Keir Starmer, of course, doesn’t talk about it quite so much,” he said.

A Labour party spokesperson said the party’s “number one mission is growing the economy to boost living standards for everyone, everywhere”.

“Keir Starmer has repeatedly spoken about how decarbonising our economy is one of the many ways we will achieve this. With Keir Starmer’s leadership, Labour is offering the most significant investment in clean, homegrown energy in British history and providing global leadership in tackling the climate crisis.”

Mr Stark said politicians in the UK across the spectrum have a “collective fear” of talking about climate change.

“You look out your window and you see we’ve had, you know, the wettest 18 months ever in this country, we’ve got the hottest year on record in the last 12 months.

“I think people around the world know climate change is happening, but there is definitely a fear of talking about it in British politics at the moment.”

He cautioned against leaving a “vacuum” where climate change denial could creep in.

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Kuenssberg: Sunak senses political opportunity

There is no question that Rishi Sunak has pulled back from Boris Johnson’s enthusiasm for the push to net zero. His shift seems, in part, down to a genuine difference in view about the urgency of moving to a green economy and the costs for consumers and business.

But the Conservatives also sniffed a political opportunity, particularly after the Uxbridge by-election, where they held on after campaigning against extending a low-emission zone for drivers. Slowing down the move to a green economy, and delaying the price tag for consumers, was a way of trying to grab political support.

Despite the victory in Uxbridge back in the autumn, the new approach on climate has hardly done the Tories many favours – if you believe the polls. But what was a consensus on moving to net zero is strained.

It’s been harder for politicians who are committed to tackling climate change to make the case when many families are struggling to make ends meet, even though many argue that investing in green technology is a way to help create jobs and wealth.

Reform UK, the party that’s chasing disaffected voters, is campaigning hard on scrapping the net zero target.

And there is a genuine difference between the two big parties on how we produce our energy, how fast we move to a greener economy, and how the UK manages the huge shift that most countries are undertaking. It’s a gap that both the Tories and Labour will try to use to their advantage between now and the election.

Chris Stark has plenty more to say on climate protests, “faceless quangos”, and what he reckons is at risk. We’ll be talking to the Climate Secretary Claire Coutinho in the studio tomorrow.

The full interview with Mr Stark will be broadcast tomorrow on Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg.

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Politics Briefing: Premiers warn Ottawa against 'overreaching' and setting conditions on funding – The Globe and Mail

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Hello,

Canada’s premiers and territorial leaders are pressing the federal government to refrain from overreaching into provincial and territorial jurisdictions, particularly in such areas as housing, health care and education.

“Every government should have the right to receive ongoing financial compensation representing their fair share. This includes provinces and territories that reserve the right to require unconditional federal funding,” Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston, chair of the Council of the Federation, wrote in a letter today.

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Houston, speaking for the premiers and territorial leaders, warned the federal government against “overreaching into provincial and territorial jurisdiction.”

The premiers’ letter, available here, said this week’s federal budget provided an opportunity to promote affordability, increase productivity and invest in economic growth for Canada.

“However, to fully deliver for Canadians we must return to a cooperative approach, where governments work together so that the unique needs and priorities of Canadians are respected and responded to in the most efficient way possible.”

The letter comes as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government have launched a housing program with billions of dollars available to provinces or municipalities ready to work with Ottawa, but conditions are attached.

In Victoria, Trudeau responded to the letter, defending federal action on issues of concern to Canadians

“I’d always rather work with provinces, but if we have to, I will go around them and be there for Canadians,” Trudeau told a news conference.

“I am unabashed about saying I am ambitious to solve problems for Canadians right across the country.”

Houston said the federal budget was announced after provinces and territories had released their respective budgets, with initiatives that will impact their spending plans.

“There was limited and inconsistent outreach from the federal government in advance to ensure priorities and objectives of [provinces and territories] were considered,” said the letter.

“Premiers are concerned that new federal programs, created without long-term funding commitments, will eventually be downloaded on provinces and territories, increasing the financial burdens borne by their taxpayers.”

This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter signup page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.

TODAY’S HEADLINES

Quebec follows Ottawa and raises amount of capital gains subject to tax: Ottawa announced increases in its budget Tuesday, and Quebec now says it will tax two-thirds rather than one-half of capital gains, which are profits made on the sale of assets. Story here.

Ottawa to force banks to identify carbon rebate by name in direct deposits: Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault says Canadian banks that refuse to identify the carbon rebate by name when doing direct deposits are forcing the government to change the law to make them do it.

New Brunswick man kidnapped in Congo, held for more than four months: Premier Blaine Higgs has sent a letter to Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly urging Ottawa to redouble its efforts on behalf of Fredrick (Freddy) Wangabo Mwenengabo, a Canadian citizen born in Congo, who was kidnapped in the eastern city of Goma in December.

Dominic LeBlanc says he supports PM, but doesn’t deny report on organizing leadership bid: LeBlanc is a lifelong friend of Justin Trudeau. On Wednesday, The Globe and Mail reported that he held a meeting with a former Liberal cabinet minister to lay the groundwork for a leadership campaign should Mr. Trudeau step down. Story here.

‘To us, that border doesn’t exist’: Alaska Indigenous groups want a say in B.C. mining projects they fear could hurt their livelihoods. A border stands in the way – but they hope a Canadian court ruling strengthens the case for ignoring it.

Chinese ambassador ends his posting in Canada: Cong Peiwu, Beijing’s envoy to Ottawa since 2019 – through much of the strained ties between China and Canada – has informed the Department of Global Affairs and other diplomatic missions in the capital that he’s heading home, sources say.

Federal Addictions Minister to meet with B.C. counterpart as backlash continues on decriminalization: A statement from the office of Ya’ara Saks, the federal Minister for Mental Health and Addictions, said she would be meeting with B.C.’s Jennifer Whiteside next week to discuss fallout from the province’s drug policies, including decriminalization and safer supply. Story here.

Poilievre won’t commit to keeping new social programs like pharmacare: CBC reports that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is depicting the government’s latest budget as a threat to the country’s future, and suggesting a number of new social programs will get a second look if he leads the next government.

TODAY’S POLITICAL QUOTES

“I really believe in capitalist democracy. I have lived in other systems actually and they’re pretty awful.” – Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, in Toronto, today at a news conference in a lab.

“Limp, wet and utterly useless, paper straws and Liberal governments are not worth the cost.” – Conservative MP Corey Tochor during Question Period today.

“That’s the price of Pierre” – NDP MP Peter Julian, in a statement today, referring to the implications of federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s policies on pharmacare, dental care and support for corporations.

THIS AND THAT

Today in the Commons: Projected Order of Business at the House of Commons, April. 19, accessible here.

Deputy Prime Minister’s Day: Private meetings in Toronto, and Chrystia Freeland toured a research lab and discussed her budget’s impact on research labs.

Ministers on the Road: Members of the federal cabinet are out across Canada, holding events to emphasize aspects of the federal budget, including research funding. Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister Gary Anandasangaree, International Development Minister Ahmed Hussen and Filomena Tassi, Minister for the Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario, are in Hamilton. Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault, is in Saskatoon, with Labour Minister Seamus O’Regan. Health Minister Mark Holland is in the Ontario city of Waterloo, hosting an event at the University of Waterloo. Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay highlighted student-research investments at the University of Prince Edward Island’s Canadian Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation in St. Peter’s Bay. Mental Health Minister Ya’ara Saks hosted an event at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg. Justice Minister Minister Arif Virani made a research funding announcement at the University of Calgary.

Meanwhile, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, on the Italian island of Capri, attended the final day of the G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting.

In Ottawa: Governor-General Mary Simon participated in the unveiling of a heraldic badge granted to the Rainbow Veterans of Canada by the Canadian Heraldic Authority.

Commons Committee Highlights: Heather Jeffrey, president of the Public Health Agency of Canada, and Stephen Lucas, deputy health minister, were scheduled to appear before the afternoon special committee on the Canada-China relationship.

New member of intelligence committee: Darren Fisher, a Liberal MP from Nova Scotia, has been appointed to the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians, says the Office of the Prime Minister. The committee, created in 2017, includes MPs and Senators from various parties who review national-security and intelligence activities carried out by the government.

Unanimous consent: MPs have given unanimous consent to a motion on antisemitism advanced by Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, and, says a spokesperson for May, inspired by a May. 22 Globe and Mail editorial. The motion, given consent Thursday, read: “That the House unequivocally condemns antisemitism, and in particular rejects the idea that Jewish Canadians are responsible for the actions of the State of Israel.”

PRIME MINISTER’S DAY

Justin Trudeau, in Victoria, met with students to highlight federal budget measures, and made an announcement on budget measures related to Canadian research and education.

On Saturday, Trudeau was scheduled to meet at CFB Esquimalt Naval Base Headquarters with visiting Polish President Andrzej Duda, who is making stops in Vancouver, the Victoria area, and Edmonton through Monday.

LEADERS

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre participated in a fundraising event in the Southern Ontario town of Milton.

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May travelled to her B.C. riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands, and attended the Beacon Community Services Volunteer Long Service ceremony and luncheon.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, in Richmond, B.C., joined food-service workers outside Vancouver International Airport who have recently voted for strike action.

No schedule released for Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet.

THE DECIBEL

On today’s Decibel podcast, Bill Curry, The Globe’s deputy Ottawa bureau chief, discusses the ArriveCan app and what was learned from Kristian Firth’s appearance at the House of Commons. Firth was the first person in over a century held in contempt of Parliament and ordered to answer MPs’ questions. His company, GC Strategies, was awarded millions of dollars to help develop the app. The Decibel is here.

OPINION

Reconciliation: How to build up an Indigenous economy

“Investigations from both media and government into the ArriveCan app have laid bare much rot at the heart of the federal government’s procurement. There have been concerns about how costs can balloon out of control, or how middlemen can pocket millions of dollars for doing little work. Another troubling thread has been the apparent exploitation of a program meant to support Indigenous businesses.” – The Globe and Mail Editorial Board

The foreign interference inquiry features a parade of senior Liberals protesting too much

“We are partway through the mandate of the Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference in Federal Electoral Processes and Democratic Institutions, a.k.a. the Foreign Interference Commission, which is to say we are all the way through the only part that matters. – Andrew Coyne.

Jewish students are being forced to weigh a new factor when choosing universities

“This time of year, Grade 12 students are making big decisions about what comes next. Parents’ Facebook feeds feature proud announcements about where their child will attend university in the fall. It’s lovely. But for Jewish parents, a new factor has entered into the mix: Where can we send our kids that will be safe?” –Marsha Lederman.

Danielle Smith’s Bill 18 is as cynical and nefarious as it gets

“Alberta Premier Danielle Smith must awaken each morning and think: what fresh havoc can I wreak today? What’s remarkable is that she continues to get away with just about ev–deologue on the loose, free to indulge her libertarian, Justin Trudeau-despising whims as she wishes. She gets away with it largely because conservative politicians in Alberta have trained the populace to despise Ottawa, too, or at least “liberal” Ottawa.” – Gary Mason.

Here’s what a ‘fairness for every generation’ budget would have actually included

“Canada’s “Fairness For Every Generation” budget was quite clearly designed to promote the perception of fairness, rather than its realization. It’s a marketing document, as federal budgets are, through which a government with a certain degree of gall can claim that “it would be irresponsible and unfair to pass on more debt to the next generations,” while also introducing $52.9-billion in new spending, with the cost to service the national debt ($54.1-billion) now surpassing health transfers to the provinces ($52.1-billion).” – Robyn Urback

Got a news tip that you’d like us to look into? E-mail us at tips@globeandmail.com. Need to share documents securely? Reach out via SecureDrop.

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Iran news: Canada, G7 urge de-escalation after Israel strike – CTV News

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Canada called for “all parties” to de-escalate rising tensions in the Mideast following an apparent Israeli drone attack against Iran overnight.

G7 foreign ministers, including Canada’s, and the High Representative for the European Union released a public statement Friday morning. The statement condemned Iran’s “direct and unprecedented attack” on April 13, which saw Western allies intercept more than 100 bomb-carrying drones headed towards Israel, the G7 countries said.

Prior to the Iranian attack, a previous airstrike, widely blamed on Israel, destroyed Iran’s consulate in Syria, killing 12 people including two elite Iranian generals.

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“I join my G7 colleagues in urging all parties to work to prevent further escalation,” wrote Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly in a post on X Friday.

More details to come.

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