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Why Canada’s ban on foreign buyers hasn’t made homes more affordable

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Kris Wallace and Andy Ali of Vancouver say their search for a larger condo to give their family more room has been frustrating. Real estate and rental costs in the city are so high that their 26-year-old daughter is still living with them and they’re all feeling the squeeze.

A year ago, the federal government instituted a foreign buyer ban after passing the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act in 2022. The two-year ban, which came into effect on Jan. 1, barred non-citizens, non-permanent residents and foreign controlled companies from buying up Canadian property as an investment.

But Wallace says that ban didn’t do much for her family.

“There’s all of these very luxurious buildings going in all around us that are outrageously priced,” said Wallace, after attending an open house at a promising $1.1-million condo. “The foreign buyers tax … I don’t think that’s making an iota of difference.”

Critics say the foreign buyers ban, which was aimed at making housing affordable for Canadians, had many exemptions and was more of a political manoeuvre. They say it’s clear housing remains out of reach for too many in Canada, and that the country should look to other places in the world to find strategies to foster home ownership.

 

Federal budget’s housing plan targets foreign and first-time homebuyers

Housing affordability is a key focus for the Liberals in their 2022 federal budget, with promises of a ban on some foreign buyers for two years and billions of dollars to help first-time home buyers get into the market.

Though Housing Minister Sean Fraser’s office declined an interview request, his spokesperson said the government had worked with cities across the country to help “over 250,000 new homes get built over the next decade.” Earlier this month, the government announced a deal with Vancouver — $115 million to fast track the building of 40,000 homes in coming years.

In an email, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said 2023 data from the Canadian Housing Statistics Program is not yet available to determine the ban’s full effect.

The CMHC said Ottawa is “working to ensure every Canadian … has an affordable place to call home,” citing moves to forgive GST from newly constructed rental units, $20-billion in apartment financing and other initiatives.

In Vancouver late last month, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said the ban “is making a difference” by preserving housing where people can live. Earlier in November, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said that rather than helping to make housing affordable, the government’s policies have instead “made the problem worse.”

The housing minister acknowledged the housing crunch earlier this month, but challenged Poilievre’s strategy. “He seems content to tap into the anxiety of Canadians without putting forward a plan that’s actually going to help them,” said Fraser.

The Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act was meant to bar non-citizens, non-permanent residents and foreign controlled companies from buying Canadian property as an investment, but critics say there are so many exemptions that the ban doesn’t make much of a difference. (Ben Nelms/CBC)

Exemptions watered down ban

CMHC data reveals that only two per cent of real estate purchases in 2021 were made by non-Canadians, according to communications obtained by Global News through Access to Information.

A few months after the ban was put into place more exemptions were added. These included students, first-time buyers and properties under $500,000.

“There were so many exemptions to the foreign buyer ban that it really didn’t make any difference at all,” said Tim Sabitov of Team 3000 Realty Ltd, in Vancouver.

Any impacts of the ban were short-lived, according to Brendon Ogmundson, the chief economist for the B.C. Real Estate Association. “The foreign buyer ban was more political than economic policy or housing policy,” he said.

This year, Toronto’s market has softened, but the average home price is still $1.1-million — and the typical price of a home in Vancouver was $1.2-million in September, according to data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

Even as Canadian home sales fell off in October, the average sale price rose 1.8 per cent that month, compared to the same period in 2022, according to the CREA. It was up 5.8 per cent in Vancouver, with the benchmark price for a detached home rising to $2,001,400, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).

Though the number of home sales fell off in the month of October, the average price of homes rose, according to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association. (Ben Nelms/CBC)

Some success

In 2016, B.C. introduced speculation and vacancy or empty homes taxes. Ontario followed the next year. These taxes were applied to high-demand areas to discourage people from buying property as an investment.

Thomas Davidoff, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business, and UBC PhD student Keling Zheng studied the effect of foreign buyer taxes in B.C. and Toronto and found they resulted in an initial drop in the price of housing that soon levelled off.

The city of Vancouver says CMHC data showed that speculation taxes helped cool the market and convert vacant properties into long-term rentals between 2017 and 2021.

On Tuesday, Ottawa announced new measures intended to help Canadians with the affordability crisis, including funding for new affordable homes and a new “Canadian Mortgage Charter,” which the government says will give homeowners new rights when facing a mortgage renewal. Meanwhile, the B.C. government has been introducing its own slew of housing-related policies, including a crackdown on short-term rentals. Dustin Miller, a real estate broker from Victoria, joins CBC’s Tanya Fletcher to talk about the immediate aftermath of the province’s new regulations.

Based on that success, B.C. has expanded the speculation tax program to 59 municipalities and the federal government is adopting many provincial policies encouraging transit-oriented and multi-unit developments, according to B.C.’s housing minister Ravi Kahlon.

“The Federal housing minister just recently went to Toronto Council and said, ‘Adopt what British Columbia is doing,’ ” Kahlon told CBC in Victoria on Nov. 30.

“We’re not waiting for the federal government. We’re taking action here already.”

According to Davidoff, high-end home prices did plummet initially after the foreign buyers ban — but he says the real driver was soaring interest rates that triggered an economic slowdown.

“The most affordable products actually rose in price for whatever reasons after the foreign buyer tax.”

There are still units for sale in this 43-storey luxury West End Vancouver condo, the Alberni by Japanese architect Kengo Kuma. Experts say that though high-end home prices did plummet after the ban on foreign buyers was instituted, the real driver was soaring interest rates. (Andrew Lee/CBC)

He says he’s not sure focusing only on foreign buyers helps make things more affordable and believes the focus should be on how a property is used — not who owns it.

Mike Stewart, a realtor with Vancouver New Condos, says “the ban was maybe a way for certain federal politicians to do better at the next election as opposed to trying to help housing affordability.”

Canada’s ban ‘full of holes,’ critics say

Those who do advocate for taxes and bans say they need to be tougher to work.

“Canada’s ban was full of holes,” said Andy Yan, director of the City Program, a continuing education program focusing on urban planning and development at Simon Fraser University. “I would tell people it was more like cheesecloth than duct tape.”

Yan says places like Hong Kong and Singapore use much higher taxes and rigid buyer restrictions to cool prices.

The foreign buyer ban came long after speculation taxes already discouraged non-resident property investors in B.C., he and other housing experts note. And the country has other problems.

Stagnant wages, a lack of affordable housing stock and a legacy of attracting global property investors due to weak regulations all feed the affordability problem, according to David Ley, author of Housing Booms in Gateway Cities.

The retired UBC Urban Geography professor says Canada could learn from success stories like Singapore, which boasted one of the highest home ownership rates in the world in 2022 at 89 per cent.

A rapid transit train passes a public housing construction site in Singapore on Oct. 21, 2022. About 80 per cent of Singapore’s housing stock is public. (Roslan Rahman/AFP/Getty Images)

“Singapore has solved its housing question. Now, how many cities in the world could we say that of?” asked Ley.

He credits Singapore’s success to aggressive speculation taxes — 60 per cent compared to B.C.’s 25 per cent — and the use of those taxes to create robust public housing stocks.

Singapore’s housing is 80 per cent public, compared to Canada’s, which sits closer to six per cent.

Ley says Singapore controls “investor play” in the housing market “so there is opportunity for local buyers to be successful.”

Back in Vancouver, Wallace and Ali are still hunting for a condo, for they say many are priced too high, especially given today’s interest rates.

“Most of the building owners seem financially able to sit tight and wait. Which is frustrating for buyers,” said Wallace.

Kris Wallace and Andy Ali say they’re still looking for a new condo in Vancouver, but they’re finding many they feel are too expensive, especially considering how high interest rates are. (Ben Nelms/CBC)

 

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As plant-based milk becomes more popular, brands look for new ways to compete

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When it comes to plant-based alternatives, Canadians have never had so many options — and nowhere is that choice more abundantly clear than in the milk section of the dairy aisle.

To meet growing demand, companies are investing in new products and technology to keep up with consumer tastes and differentiate themselves from all the other players on the shelf.

“The product mix has just expanded so fast,” said Liza Amlani, co-founder of the Retail Strategy Group.

She said younger generations in particular are driving growth in the plant-based market as they are consuming less dairy and meat.

Commercial sales of dairy milk have been weakening for years, according to research firm Mintel, likely in part because of the rise of plant-based alternatives — even though many Canadians still drink dairy.

The No. 1 reason people opt for plant-based milk is because they see it as healthier than dairy, said Joel Gregoire, Mintel’s associate director for food and drink.

“Plant-based milk, the one thing about it — it’s not new. It’s been around for quite some time. It’s pretty established,” said Gregoire.

Because of that, it serves as an “entry point” for many consumers interested in plant-based alternatives to animal products, he said.

Plant-based milk consumption is expected to continue growing in the coming years, according to Mintel research, with more options available than ever and more consumers opting for a diet that includes both dairy and non-dairy milk.

A 2023 report by Ernst & Young for Protein Industries Canada projected that the plant-based dairy market will reach US$51.3 billion in 2035, at a compound annual growth rate of 9.5 per cent.

Because of this growth opportunity, even well-established dairy or plant-based companies are stepping up their game.

It’s been more than three decades since Saint-Hyacinthe, Que.-based Natura first launched a line of soy beverages. Over the years, the company has rolled out new products to meet rising demand, and earlier this year launched a line of oat beverages that it says are the only ones with a stamp of approval from Celiac Canada.

Competition is tough, said owner and founder Nick Feldman — especially from large American brands, which have the money to ensure their products hit shelves across the country.

Natura has kept growing, though, with a focus on using organic ingredients and localized production from raw materials.

“We’re maybe not appealing to the mass market, but we’re appealing to the natural consumer, to the organic consumer,” Feldman said.

Amlani said brands are increasingly advertising the simplicity of their ingredient lists. She’s also noticing more companies offering different kinds of products, such as coffee creamers.

Companies are also looking to stand out through eye-catching packaging and marketing, added Amlani, and by competing on price.

Besides all the companies competing for shelf space, there are many different kinds of plant-based milk consumers can choose from, such as almond, soy, oat, rice, hazelnut, macadamia, pea, coconut and hemp.

However, one alternative in particular has enjoyed a recent, rapid ascendance in popularity.

“I would say oat is the big up-and-coming product,” said Feldman.

Mintel’s report found the share of Canadians who say they buy oat milk has quadrupled between 2019 and 2023 (though almond is still the most popular).

“There seems to be a very nice marriage of coffee and oat milk,” said Feldman. “The flavour combination is excellent, better than any other non-dairy alternative.”

The beverage’s surge in popularity in cafés is a big part of why it’s ascending so quickly, said Gregoire — its texture and ability to froth makes it a good alternative for lattes and cappuccinos.

It’s also a good example of companies making a strong “use case” for yet another new entrant in a competitive market, he said.

Amid the long-standing brands and new entrants, there’s another — perhaps unexpected — group of players that has been increasingly investing in plant-based milk alternatives: dairy companies.

For example, Danone has owned the Silk and So Delicious brands since an acquisition in 2014, and long-standing U.S. dairy company HP Hood LLC launched Planet Oat in 2018.

Lactalis Canada also recently converted its facility in Sudbury, Ont., to manufacture its new plant-based Enjoy! brand, with beverages made from oats, almonds and hazelnuts.

“As an organization, we obviously follow consumer trends, and have seen the amount of interest in plant-based products, particularly fluid beverages,” said Mark Taylor, president and CEO of Lactalis Canada, whose parent company Lactalis is the largest dairy products company in the world.

The facility was a milk processing plant for six decades, until Lactalis Canada began renovating it in 2022. It now manufactures not only the new brand, but also the company’s existing Sensational Soy brand, and is the company’s first dedicated plant-based facility.

“We’re predominantly a dairy company, and we’ll always predominantly be a dairy company, but we see these products as complementary,” said Taylor.

It makes sense that major dairy companies want to get in on plant-based milk, said Gregoire. The dairy business is large — a “cash cow,” if you will — but not really growing, while plant-based products are seeing a boom.

“If I’m looking for avenues of growth, I don’t want to be left behind,” he said.

Gregoire said there’s a potential for consumers to get confused with so many options, which is why it’s so important for brands to find a way to differentiate themselves, whether it’s with taste, health, or how well the drink froths for a latte.

Competition in a more crowded market is challenging, but Taylor believes it results in better products for consumers.

“It keeps you sharp, and it forces you to be really good at what you’re doing. It drives innovation,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.



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Inflation expected to ease to 2.1%, lowest level since March 2021: economists

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Economists anticipate that Canada’s annual inflation rate in August fell to its lowest level since March 2021.

Ahead of Statistics Canada’s consumer price index set to be released on Tuesday, economists polled by Reuters are expecting the report to show prices rose 2.1 per cent from a year ago, down from a 2.5 per cent annual gain in July. The forecasters also anticipate inflation remained flat on a month-over-month basis.

“Unless there’s something lurking out there that we’re not aware of, it looks like we’re headed for a pretty favourable reading,” said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter.

RBC economists Nathan Janzen and Claire Fan said in a report last week that those expectations would put the headline inflation rate just a hair over the Bank of Canada’s two per cent inflation target.

“Most of that August slowing is expected from a pullback in gasoline prices, but the (Bank of Canada’s) preferred core CPI measures are also expected to trend lower, with the closely-watched three-month annualized growth rate easing from an average of 2.6 per cent in July,” the RBC economists said.

The continued progress on slowing inflation comes as the central bank has signalled a willingness to speed up cuts to its key lending rate if circumstances warrant.

The Bank of Canada reduced its key lending rate by a quarter-percentage point earlier this month — the third consecutive cut — to 4.25 per cent. Governor Tiff Macklem said the decision was motivated by falling inflation, noting if the CPI moving forward “was significantly weaker than we expected … it could be appropriate to take a bigger step, something bigger than 25 basis points.”

On the other hand, Macklem said if inflation is stronger than expected, the bank could slow the pace of rate cuts.

Inflation has remained below three per cent since January and fears of price growth reaccelerating have diminished as the economy has weakened.

Porter said despite progress on the inflation rate, it’s still “not in a place where it’s a compelling argument that the bank has to go even faster.”

He forecasts the central bank will cut its key lending rate by a quarter-percentage point at every meeting until July 2025, bringing it down to 2.5 per cent by that time. That prediction also comes after data released last week that showed Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.6 per cent in August from 6.4 per cent in July.

However, Porter said it’s possible the bank could speed up its rate cutting cycle if inflation continues easing.

“If we’re going to be wrong, it’s that we’re going to get to 2.5 per cent even more quickly and possibly lower than that,” said Porter.

“There is a case to be made that if the economy were to weaken further, there’s little reason for the bank to keep rates in what they consider to be the neutral zone. They could go below that.”

Shelter costs have remained the main driver of inflation as Canadians face high rents and mortgage payments. Porter noted that when factoring out housing costs, inflation in both Canada and U.S. is hovering slightly above one per cent.

“So really, the only thing keeping Canadian inflation above two per cent is shelter and it does look like shelter costs are probably going to fade,” he said.

“It looks as if rents are starting to moderate. They’re not necessarily falling, but not rising as quickly. And of course with interest rates coming down, ultimately the big kahuna here, mortgage interest costs, will recede as well.”

With the U.S. Federal Reserve set to meet on Wednesday, Janzen and Fan said they expect the American central bank to announce its first rate cut in four years.

“Gradual but persistent labour market softening and slowing inflation make it clear that current high interest rates are no longer needed,” they wrote.

“We think governor (Jerome) Powell’s comments will likely stay on the cautious side — hinting at future rate cuts without committing to a pre-determined path to allow for more flexibility in future decisions.”

—With files from Nojoud Al Mallees in Ottawa

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Air Canada, pilots reach tentative deal, averting work stoppage

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MONTREAL – Passengers with plans to fly on Canada’s largest airline can breathe a sigh of relief after Air Canada said Sunday it has reached a tentative agreement with the union representing more than 5,200 of its pilots.

The news of a preliminary deal with the Air Line Pilots Association came shortly after midnight on Sunday when the airline issued a press release just days ahead of a potential work stoppage for Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge.

The tentative deal averts a strike or lockout that could have begun on Wednesday, with flight cancellations expected before then.

“The new agreement recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline,” the carrier said in the statement.

It said Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge will continue to operate as normal while union members vote on the tentative four-year contract.

It said the terms of the new deal will remain confidential pending a ratification vote by the membership, expected to be completed over the next month, and approval by Air Canada’s board of directors.

ALPA issued a statement after midnight Sunday, saying if ratified, the tentative agreement will generate an approximate additional $1.9 billion of value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the agreement.

First Officer Charlene Hudy, chair of the Air Canada ALPA MEC, says in a Sunday statement, “The consistent engagement and unified determination of our pilots have been the catalyst for achieving this contract.” She added that progress was made on several key issues including compensation, retirement, and work rules.

The airline said customers who changed flights originally scheduled from between Sunday and Sept. 23 under its labour disruption plan can change their booking back to their original flight in the same cabin at no cost, providing there is space available.

In the lead-up to Sunday’s deadline to issue notice of a stoppage, the two sides said they remained far apart on the issue of pay, which was central in the negotiations that had stretched for more than a year.

The pilots’ union argued Air Canada continues to post record profits while expecting pilots to accept below-market compensation. It had also said about a quarter of pilots report taking on second jobs, with about 80 per cent of those doing so out of necessity.

The airline had said it has offered salary increases of more than 30 per cent over four years, plus improvements to benefits, and said the union was being inflexible with “unreasonable wage demands.”

Air Canada and numerous business groups had called on the government to intervene in the matter, including the Canadian Federation of Independent Business and the Canadian and U.S. Chambers of Commerce.

“The Government of Canada must take swift action to avoid another labour disruption that negatively impacts cross-border travel and trade, a damaging outcome for both people and businesses,” said the chambers and the Business Council of Canada in a statement Friday.

The union had called for the opposite approach, with Association President Capt. Tim Perry issuing a Friday statement asking Ottawa to respect workers’ collective rights and refrain from getting involved in the bargaining process. He said the government intervention violates the constitutional rights and freedoms of Canadians.

For his part, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had said it’s up to the two sides to hash out a deal.

Trudeau said Friday the government isn’t just going to step in and fix the issue, something it did promptly after both of Canada’s major railways saw lockouts in August and during a strike by WestJet mechanics on the Canada Day long weekend.

He said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became clear no negotiated agreement was possible.

Air Canada had already begun preparing for a possible shutdown, saying its cargo service had stopped accepting items such as perishables and indicating a wind-down plan for passenger flights would take effect if a notice of a strike or lockout was issued.

The tentative deal averts travel disruptions for the 670 daily flights on average operated by Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge, and the travel of more than 110,000 passengers.

This report from The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:AC)



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