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Why Canada's inflation rate is likely much higher than reported – The Globe and Mail

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Canada’s annual inflation rate hit 4.7 per cent in November, the highest increase since 1991. A prominent voice on Bay Street thinks the actual inflation rate is much higher.

After Wednesday’s inflation report, Derek Holt published a scathing critique of Statistics Canada, the agency that produces the numbers. Mr. Holt, the head of capital market economics at Bank of Nova Scotia, wrote that investors are getting “fake data on what’s really going on with Canadian inflation.”

The true rate? It’s likely around 6 per cent, Mr. Holt said – closing most of the gap with the U.S., where inflation jumped to a near 40-year high of 6.8 per cent.

His argument centres on a key omission in Canada’s report: used cars. Statscan doesn’t track prices for used vehicles, a major source of inflationary pressure over the COVID-19 pandemic.

Few industries have been as affected by supply issues as the auto sector. A global shortage of semi-conductor chips has led to steep production cuts for new vehicles. Subsequently, rental fleets have held onto their vehicles longer, limiting the flow to the used market. And many people want to buy used cars, rather than take public transit during a health crisis.

All of that has conspired to send prices skyward. In November, the price of used cars and trucks in the U.S. surged 31 per cent from a year earlier. The shortage is so bad that some lightly used vehicles are selling for more than when they were purchased new.

The Canadian auto market is similarly strapped for vehicles, but the impact on used-car prices isn’t reflected in the consumer price index, or CPI, the country’s main gauge of inflation. When asked by The Globe and Mail about the omission, Statscan said it lacks sufficiently detailed data.

“This is because the quality characteristics for used vehicles vary greatly, and adjusting for these quality differences requires detailed information on the characteristics and selling prices of used vehicles, which we don’t currently have,” the agency said in a statement.

Mr. Holt said the U.S. and Britain have tracked used-car prices for years, “so frankly that excuse has worn a little thin by now.”

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There are various measures of the domestic market. For instance, an index published by Canadian Black Book shows used-car values jumped 9.5 per cent in November alone and by 38 per cent over the previous year – both records. Using that data source, Mr. Holt estimates annual inflation would jump about 1.3 percentage points, taking the rate to 6 per cent from 4.7 per cent.

“The issue is hugely important at a time of heightened sensitivity toward inflationary pressures,” he said. “Many things hinge upon accurate inflation readings, yet in Canada, markets and main street businesses and consumers are not being well served by this ongoing omission.”

For example, some individuals have their wages and benefits tied to changes in CPI.

“Monetary policy decisions affecting the cost of borrowing are the other obvious example of something that needs accurate inflation gauges,” Mr. Holt added.

Statscan does account for used vehicles when constructing its weighting of goods and services in the CPI. However, it uses new-car prices as a proxy for the used market. In November, the price of such vehicles rose 6.1 per cent over the previous year. In the U.S., those prices jumped 11.1 per cent.

Statscan said it’s evaluating alternative data sources and methods for including used cars in CPI.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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