On the surface, this may seem strange given the coronavirus pandemic.
However there was little doubt the labour market would recover given the major demographic shifts that were transforming Canada’s workforce prior to the pandemic, and that will continue to transform it over the next decade.
From an immigration policy perspective, one of the biggest concerns is how a recession will impact the labour market performance of immigrants who obtain permanent residence during periods of economic downturn. Research shows that such immigrants may see their labour market outcomes negatively impacted for the rest of their careers in Canada.
This is alarming in light of the major shock to the Canadian economy at the start of the pandemic and Canada seeking to welcome the highest levels of immigration in its history.
But a closer look suggests that the COVID recession is different, and immigrants who have recently landed or who will be landing in the near future are still poised for a bright future in the Canadian labour market.
More Canadian workers retiring
The first reason for this is the exodus of baby boomers from Canada’s workforce. This exodus helps explain why Canada enjoyed its lowest unemployment rate ever prior to the COVID recession, and has achieved another historic low in the unemployment rate despite the pandemic continuing to impact the Canadian and global economy.
Canada has about 20 million workers, of whom about 9 million are baby boomers. All 9 million of these baby boomers will reach Canada’s retirement age of 65 within the next decade. More of them are retiring which is leaving a larger gap in the labour market. Historically, Canada has been able to fully replace retirees with young Canadian graduates completing their education and entering the workforce but this is no longer the case. Canada’s low birth rate means it must rely on other sources of talent to replace its retiring workers.
Replacing retiring workers is important to keep the economy going and ensure the tax base is large enough to support the services that residents of Canada are able to benefit from such as education and health care. This is even more important as the aging of the population will see Canada’s health care spending rise.
Other talent sources include under-utilized groups such as women, persons with disabilities, older workers, Indigenous peoples, and disengaged youth, among other groups. But adding more of them to the labour market would not fully compensate for all the retirees even if we lifted their employment participation rates to the national average.
This explains why immigration is so crucial to Canada’s economic success. Prior to the pandemic, they comprised up to 100% of Canada’s annual labour force growth on a few occasions, and this will become the norm over the next decade.
With so much experience and skill leaving the labour market, Canadian employers will need to turn to all the talent sources they can find to keep their operations going, which is precisely the phenomenon we are seeing now. The aging of the Canadian labour force is seeing the unemployment rate fall and wages rise, a phenomenon that is benefiting Canadian and immigrant workers alike. What we’re seeing now is likely to continue as more baby boomers retire.
We should also make note of the major immigration policy shifts over the past decade that are also having an impact on the labour market outcomes of newcomers.
More competitive selection process
One is the shift to a more competitive selection process for skilled immigrants. The federal government and provinces and territories have transformed their selection criteria in recent years to account for human capital factors demonstrated by research to result in stronger economic outcomes for immigrants. Under the Express Entry Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) for example, candidates who are young, well-educated, fluent in English and/or French, with professional work experience, and other bonuses such as having Canadian education and/or work experience, are awarded a higher CRS score which increases their chances of obtaining permanent residence and ultimately succeeding in the Canadian labour market.
More immigrants selected from within Canada
Another major shift has been the increasing number of permanent residents selected from within Canada. Prior to the pandemic, immigrants overseas comprised some 70% of those who landed under Express Entry but last year this figure fell to 30% with Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) relying more on in-Canada candidates to achieve its immigration levels targets amid pandemic-related disruptions such as travel restrictions. It remains to be seen whether IRCC will rely more on selecting immigrants overseas or in Canada after the pandemic, we do know Immigration Minister Sean Fraser’s mandate letter asks him to identify more immigration pathways for in-Canada candidates. In addition, provinces and territories are increasingly selecting more in-Canada candidates via the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) and other streams.
The in-Canada selection trend is also backed by Canadian government research which shows that former international students and temporary foreign workers benefit in the labour market from their Canadian experience once they gain permanent residence.
More Canadian government investment to help newcomers
A third major consideration is IRCC’s increased investment in immigrant settlement services such as workforce and language training. IRCC now spends some $2 billion per year on such services compared to about $350 million per year twenty years ago. These services are also delivered pre-arrival to give immigrants useful information and supports to help expedite the settlement process once they arrive in Canada.
Conclusion
When all these factors are considered, one is able to better feel at ease that the COVID-induced recession should result in less labour market scarring for newcomers than prior recessions. Compared to the past, Canada has a historically tight labour market, a more competitive selection process, is selecting more immigrant candidates from within the country, and is spending more money to help immigrants succeed.
HALIFAX – A strike that has shuttered libraries in the Halifax region for the past three-and-a-half weeks could come to an end on Thursday now that the employer and union representing hundreds of workers have reached a tentative labour deal.
The Nova Scotia Union of Public and Private Employees Local 14 and Halifax Public Libraries issued a joint statement on Friday announcing the agreement, though they did not share details on its terms.
It said both library workers and the library board will vote on the deal as soon as possible, and branches will re-open for business on Sept. 19 if it’s approved.
Chad Murphy, spokesperson and vice president of NSUPE Local 14, said voting for library workers opened Saturday morning and will close at 12 p.m. Sunday. He declined to share details of the deal but said the membership met to “review the offer in its entirety” on Friday night.
About 340 workers at libraries across the region have been on strike since Aug. 26 as they fought for improvements to wages they said were “miles behind” other libraries in Canada. Negotiations broke down after the employer offered the workers 3.5-per-cent raises in the first year of a new contract, and then three per cent in each of the next three years.
Library service adviser Dominique Nielsen told The Canadian Press in the first week on the picket line that those increases would not bring wages up to a livable wage for many workers, adding that some library workers sometimes have to choose between paying rent and paying for groceries.
When the strike began, employees were working under a collective agreement that expired in April 2023. Librarians make between $59,705 and $68,224 a year under that agreement, while service support workers — who are the lowest paid employees at Halifax Public Libraries — make between $35,512 and $40,460 annually.
By contrast, the lowest paid library workers at the London Public Library in London, Ont.— a city with a comparable population and cost of living to Halifax — make at least $37,756, according to their collective agreement.
Library workers also cited a changing workplace as another reason why they rejected Halifax Public Libraries’ first offer. Libraries have become gathering spaces for people with increasingly complex needs, and it is more common for library workers to take on more social responsibilities in addition to lending books.
“We need to ensure that members are able to care for themselves first before they are able to care for our communities,” an NSUPE strike FAQ page reads.
Other issues at play during the strike have included better parental leave top-up pay for adoptive parents and eliminating a provision of the collective agreement that calls for dismissals for employees who are absent from work for two days or more without approved leave.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.
EDMONTON – RCMP say a second suspect has been arrested in the killing of an Alberta county worker.
Mounties say 28-year-old Elijah Strawberry was taken into custody Friday at a house on O’Chiese First Nation.
Colin Hough, a worker with Rocky View County, was shot and killed while on the job on a rural road east of Calgary on Aug. 6.
Another man who worked for Fortis Alberta was shot and wounded, and RCMP said the suspects fled in a Rocky View County work truck.
Police later arrested Arthur Wayne Penner, 35, and charged him with first-degree murder and attempted murder, and a warrant was issued for Strawberry’s arrest.
RCMP also said there was a $10,000 reward for information leading to the arrest of Strawberry, describing him as armed and dangerous.
Chief Supt. Roberta McKale, told a news conference in Edmonton that officers had received tips and information over the last few weeks.
“I don’t know of many members that when were stopped, fuelling up our vehicles, we weren’t keeping an eye out, looking for him,” she said.
But officers had been investigating other cases when they found Strawberry.
“Our investigators were in O’Chiese First Nation at a residence on another matter and the major crimes unit was there working another file and ended up locating him hiding in the residence,” McKale said.
While an investigation is still underway, RCMP say they’re confident both suspects in the case are in police custody.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
RICHMOND, B.C. – The Integrated Homicide Investigation Team says the 26-year-old son of a man found dead on British Columbia’s Sunshine Coast has been charged with his murder.
Police say 58-year-old Henry Doyle was found badly injured on a forest service road in Egmont last September and died of his injuries.
The homicide team took over when the BC Coroners Service said the man’s death was suspicious.
It says in a statement that the BC Prosecution Service has approved one count of first-degree murder against the man’s son, Jackson Doyle.
Police say the accused will remain in custody until at least his next court appearance.
The homicide team says investigators remained committed to solving the case with the help of the community of Egmont, the RCMP on the Sunshine Coast and in Richmond, and the Vancouver Police Department.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
