Why is gold price down as markets price in a pause after 10 consecutive rate hikes? | Canada News Media
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Why is gold price down as markets price in a pause after 10 consecutive rate hikes?

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(Kitco News)
The gold market extended its weekly losses ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision as markets re-priced expectations for a rate skip on Wednesday, followed by a rate hike in July.

The highly anticipated inflation report revealed a contradictory outlook for the U.S. On the surface, inflation cooled to a 4% annual rate, marking the lowest level in more than two years. However, the core CPI number, which the Fed pays closer attention to because it strips out volatile food and energy prices, ran at a pace of 5.3%, down from 5.5% but slightly hotter than market consensus calls.

Analysts remain cautious despite cooling inflation, which unlocks a pause option for the Fed.

“Today’s data should lock in a pause at the June FOMC meeting, i.e. no rate hike,” said Wells Fargo’s economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese. “However, we expect Chair Powell’s press conference and the latest Summary of Economic Projections to signal that one more rate hike is still in the cards.”

And if the Fed is still dealing with core inflation between 3% and 3.5% at the end of the year, markets won’t be expecting rate cuts any time soon either.

“Directional progress should not be confused with mission accomplished,” House and Pugliese added. “There is a lot of ground to cover between the 5.0% run rate of core inflation today and the FOMC’s 2% goal.”

After the CPI data on Tuesday, markets were projecting a 92% chance of a pause on Wednesday and a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

“A June hold is done deal, and the July FOMC decision should be a coin flip as the disinflation process will likely continue, but signs of stickiness remain,” said OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya.

The focus for the gold market will be the updated economic forecasts, the dot plot, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.

“For gold to rally, it needs Wall Street to become confident that the Fed is done raising rates. This inflation report was in-line, but some Fed members might be concerned that core pricing pressures are looking sticky,” added Moya. “The Fed will remain data-driven, but optimism should be high that the end of tightening is near.”

Tuesday, gold saw double-digit losses, with August Comex gold futures last trading at $1,956.30 an ounce, down $13.40.

Analysts warn that if there is a surprise rate hike on Wednesday, gold is at risk of an extensive selloff.

“A surprise rate hike has the potential to trigger an aggressive selloff towards levels not touched since mid-March at $1,900,” said FXTM senior market analyst Lukman Otunuga. “In the meantime, prices remain trapped within a range with support at $1,935 and resistance at $1,983.”

The outlook for the Fed depends on how much the economy cools from here, said Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams.

“The most likely path for the economy is further softening of activity and the job market, passing through to lower inflation and eventually lower interest rates,” said Adams. “But economic growth and the job market have been more resilient than expected; if that trend holds up, inflation could surprise to the upside too, forcing the Fed to keep rates high for longer than expected.”

The updated dot plot, which will be released along with the rate decision on Wednesday, will clarify how high the Fed is willing to raise rates in this tightening cycle.

At the May meeting, the Fed raised rates for the tenth consecutive time, bringing the federal funds rate to a 5-5.25% range – the highest since mid-2007. But the statement included a “meaningful” change — a decision to take out the reference to “some additional policy firming may be appropriate.”

Risk of a July hike

The Fed is likely to describe its June decision as a ‘pause’ rather than a ‘hold’ to appease the more hawkish members of the FOMC, Adams added. “Reflecting the FOMC’s lean toward more hikes, financial markets price in greater than 50-50 odds that the Fed raises its policy rate by a quarter percentage point at either the July or September decision after holding rates steady next week,” he said.

Markets are keeping a close eye on the scenario where the Fed pauses in June only to hike again in July, a similar path taken by other central banks, including Canada and Australia.

“The core debate is between 1) a hawkish pause based on guidance from top Fed officials & market expectations that the Fed will ‘skip’ (the new term) with an inclination to resume hikes at the July meeting, similar to what Canada & Australia did (EG: RBA was a hike/hike/pause/hike/hike cycle) vs 2) a dovish 25bp hike (recent U.S. labor & inflation data favors a hike for the Fed who has repeatedly insist they’re ‘data dependent’),” said MKS PAMP head of metals strategy Nicky Shiels.

At the June meeting, the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% — the highest since 2001 — after pausing for two consecutive meetings. The move was a surprise as market consensus calls projected for rates to remain on hold.

 

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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