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Why Oil Traders Are More Bullish On 2020 – OilPrice.com

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Optimism among oil traders is rising despite mixed signals from the world’s top oil consumers, largely thanks to signs that pressure is easing between Washington and Beijing and the latter’s record-breaking oil imports.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate have both been on a more or less steady rise for about four weeks now. During that period, OPEC+ agreed to deepen its production cuts by half a million bpd, China continued importing crude at record-breaking rates, and U.S. industrial production rebounded in November.

While not everyone was convinced that the deeper cuts will make much of a difference if not everyone in OPEC and outside it complies with their new quotas, the fact of the announcement of additional cuts must have made the right impression. That’s despite a warning from the International Energy Agency that next year the global oil market could swing into oversupply.

Meanwhile, China reported yet another record-breaking month of oil imports: the average daily for November was 11.18 million bpd, which, according to Bloomberg, was unprecedented. This was largely thanks to the ramp-up of two new refineries with a combined capacity of almost 900,000 bpd, but also because of signs of thawing between the U.S. and China.

The two have been cautiously getting closer to a preliminary deal despite setbacks. The latest from President Trump on the topic was that the parties are almost done with the so-called “phase-one” deal, and all that remains is for it to be translated. Related: Texas Driller Goes All-In On This New Oil Frontier

“I said make sure you have the right translators because you can lose a lot with bad translation. So we’re working on getting that done,” Trump said, as quoted by CNN.

While translators are working on the document, the U.S. administration is focusing on the economy. As Reuters’ John Kemp pointed out in his latest column on prices, this year the Fed cut interest rates by as much as 75 basis points to sustain growth and spur it on. The latest data in jobs and industrial production is encouraging for oil demand.

Payrolls in November shot up by 266,000, beating analyst expectations of 187,000 new additions, and industrial activity inched up by 1.1 percent last month after a fall of 0.7 percent in October. However, it bears noting here that the expectation-beating November figure was the result mainly of a pick-up in the carmaking industry after the six-week strike of UAW workers for GM.

Industrial activity data from China added to the optimism about the immediate future of oil demand. Like the U.S. November figures, those for China exceeded expectations. The combined positive effect of U.S. and China data offset bad economic news from India, where industrial activity shrunk by 3.8 percent in November. Eurozone industrial activity also fell, but that region is not among the top oil consumers, and economic updates are not high on the watch-out-for agenda of oil traders. Related: The 5 Biggest Threats To Oil & Gas In 2020

In further good news for oil bulls, as Reuters’ Kemp noted in his column, the governments of China and India have set up economic stimulus packages, whose effect on oil demand will be certainly positive. Even the German government is considering economic stimulus after a contraction earlier this year.

No wonder, then, that hedge fund managers are increasing their bullish bets on oil—to almost 320 million barrels since mid-October, according to Kemp—and that investment banks are raising their price forecasts.

Goldman Sachs said last week it now expected Brent crude to average $63 per barrel in 2020, with West Texas Intermediate seen at $58.50 per barrel. The so-called long-term anchor price for Brent was set at $55 per barrel, with WTI pegged at $50 per barrel.

Then yesterday JP Morgan followed suit, raising its Brent crude forecast to $64.50 a barrel, up from $59 per barrel, and its WTI forecast to $60 per barrel. The bank even expects the oil market to swing into a deficit of some 200,000 bpd.

The thing to bear in mind, however, is that this optimism is fragile. Any piece of bad news regarding oil consumption in any of the top consumers and importers will pressure prices. So would any bad news about supply, as the latest API weekly inventory report proved yet again yesterday.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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