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Why the Chinese yuan is in rebound mode versus the U.S. dollar – MarketWatch

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Look out, here comes the Chinese yuan.

The currency on Monday extended a rally in offshore trade

USDCNH, +0.0436%

 after the U.S. Treasury Department moved ahead of the planned Wednesday signing of a so-called phase-one U.S.-China trade deal to remove its largely symbolic designation of Beijing as a currency manipulator.

Read: China no longer a currency manipulator, U.S. Treasury says

The U.S. dollar bought 6.883 yuan in offshore trade on Monday, a fall of 0.4%. In onshore trade

USDCNY, +0.1088%,

the yuan had traded at less than 6.9 per dollar for the first time since late August. While the lifting of the manipulator tag certainly won’t hurt, Monday’s gains are a continuation of a rally that’s seen the yuan rebound from last summer’s bout of weakness.

“While markets were firmly focused on Middle East tensions, the Chinese yuan quietly strengthened below its uptrend that developed alongside the trade war, ahead of phase one’s signing expected on Jan. 15,” wrote Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG, in a Monday note.

“Could we see upside surprises out of China? Stabilizing manufacturing, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and a rotation toward offense all help — Chinese mall caps seem to be taking note,” he said.

Indeed, the iShares MSCI China small-cap exchange-traded fund

ECNS, +2.09%

 is up around 4.7% less than two weeks into the new year, while Chinese stocks overall have also rallied. The Shanghai Composite Index

SHCOMP, -0.28%

 is up 2.2% in local terms.

The manipulator designation came in August, as a slide in the yuan saw the currency trade at more than 7 per dollar for the first time in more than a decade, violating what analysts had widely deemed a “line in the sand for the Chinese unit and stoking fears around an intensification of the U.S.-China trade war. That all contributed to a rocky August for global equity markets, which saw some big but temporary pullbacks for the Dow Jones Industrial Average

DJIA, +0.29%

, S&P 500

SPX, +0.70%

 and Nasdaq Composite

COMP, +1.04%

.

A weaker yuan was seen offsetting some of the impact of increased tariffs on imports of Chinese goods and working to undercut U.S. manufacturers. The phase-one pact reportedly includes a pledge by Beijing not to devalue the yuan.

The yuan’s rebound, however, began to take hold late last year as China’s economy showed some early signs of stabilization and ended 2019 on a brighter note — thanks in part to the improved tone around U.S.-China trade talks and a stream of monetary and fiscal policy efforts by Beijing, said Candice Bangsund, portfolio manager at Fiera Capital, in an email.

“Taken together, the economy may be past the worst of its cyclical slump thanks to the prospect for an accord that will prevent further tariff increases and de-escalate the trade war, while proactive stimulus measures should also help to prop up the world’s second-largest economy and accordingly, the Chinese yuan,” she said.

Broad weakness in the U.S. dollar is another factor helping to drive yuan strength, she said, noting the U.S. currency lost upside momentum in the fourth quarter as fading trade worries and political headwinds dampened buying interest.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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