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Why the economy could make or break Biden's presidency – CNN

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Now with President Joe Biden in the White House, it looks as though politics may be returning to a degree of normalcy. Americans’ views on the economy could once again tell us who is going to hold congressional power after the midterms.
Recent polls show a high correlation with how voters feel about Biden’s performance on the economy and how they intend to vote in the 2022 midterms. Polls from AP-NORC, Fox News and NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist all have Biden’s approval rating on the economy in the low 50s with a disapproval rating in the mid-to-high 40s. The average gap was about 4 points.
Polling also shows that Democrats have around a 4-point advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot.
When you examine individual demographic groups, you see how closely the two questions are related.
A Quinnipiac University poll from May showed that Biden’s net approval rating (approval – disapproval) on the economy differed from the margin on the generic congressional ballot by a median of just 4 points across more than a dozen demographic and political groups.
Right now, this puts Biden and the Democrats in a decent position. It’s hardly a secure one, however. Things can certainly shift in the next year. (I’m betting on it.)
Additionally, a 4-point advantage on the generic ballot may not even be enough to hold on to the House given potential polling errors. Even if the current polling were perfect and held through the midterms, the upcoming redistricting process could possibly allow for Republicans to gain a majority in the House without improving their position in the national vote.
We shouldn’t be too surprised that voters’ views on Biden’s economic standing and their political preferences ahead of 2022 are clearly correlated. Normally, when Americans like a president’s economic performance, they are more likely to reward (or at least not punish) his party in the midterms.
George W. Bush in 2002 was the last president before Trump whom more voters approved than disapproved of on the economy in a midterm cycle. Bush’s Republican Party in 2002 defied the history of a president’s party losing seats in the midterm.
Before Bush in 2002, Bill Clinton’s Democratic Party picked up seats in the 1998 midterm election. Again, many more voters approved than disapproved of Clinton’s economic performance.
Bush (in 2006) and Clinton (in 1994) were far less fortunate in their other midterm election. Both of them saw their party’s lose the House and the Senate. Both had disapproval ratings on the economy above their approval ratings.
Indeed, it is worth remarking how much of an outlier Trump was when it came to the economy and midterm elections.
Outside of Trump, previous major midterm losses have been associated with presidents who rated poorly on the economy: Lyndon Johnson in 1966, Gerald Ford in 1974, Ronald Reagan in 1982, Clinton in 1994, Bush in 2002 and Barack Obama in both 2010 and 2014.
Now, it wasn’t the case that in all of these midterms that it was the economy that did the president’s party in. The Watergate scandal, for instance, had a lot to do with the Republican Party’s problems in 1974. Likewise, voter response to Bush’s handling of 9/11 likely played a big role in how well Republicans did in 2002.
Still, it’s clear that Trump broke the mold. Biden could break it too, but I’m less inclined to think he will.
One big reason why is the economy is simply rated as a more important issue now than it was in either 2018 or in 2020.
Economic problems are currently rated as — or tied for — the nation’s most important problem in polling from Fox News and Gallup. Back in 2018, the economy regularly ran a distant second or third for the nation’s most important problem. In the leadup to the 2020 election, the coronavirus was seen as the nation’s problem. In Gallup’s most recent poll, less than 10% of Americans listed it as the nation’s most important problem for the first time in over a year.
Put another way, there was a lot more going on than just the economy with Trump. Voters didn’t judge Trump just on his economic record, but also on how they felt he was acting in the Oval Office. In Gallup polling, poor leadership consistently beat out the economy as one of the nation’s most important problems during Trump’s time in office.
With Biden and the Democrats, on the other hand, the economy is more likely to make or break them. A derailed recovery could lead to a Republican resurgence next year. A strong recovery could be the way the Democrats hold onto power.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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N.B. election: Parties’ answers on treaty rights, taxes, Indigenous participation

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FREDERICTON – The six chiefs of the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick distributed a survey on Indigenous issues to political parties ahead of the provincial election, which is scheduled to kick off Thursday. Here are some of the answers from the Progressive Conservative, Liberal and Green parties.

Q: How does your party plan to demonstrate a renewed commitment to recognizing our joint treaty responsibilities and acknowledging that the lands and waters of this territory remain unceded?

Progressive Conservative: The party respectfully disagrees with the assertion that land title has been unceded. This is a legal question that has not been determined by the courts.

Liberal: When we form government, the first conversations the premier-designate will have is with First Nations leaders. We will publicly and explicitly acknowledge your treaty rights, and our joint responsibility as treaty people.

Green: The Green Party acknowledges that New Brunswick is situated on the unceded and unsurrendered territories of the Wolastoqiyik, Mi’kmaq and Peskotomuhkati peoples, covered by the Treaties of Peace and Friendship. Our party is committed to establishing true nation-to-nation relationships with First Nations, grounded in mutual respect and co-operation as the treaties intended.

Q: How does your party propose to approach the issue of provincial tax agreements with First Nations?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick operates in a balanced and fair manner with all organizations, institutions and local governments that represent the citizens of this province, including First Nations. Therefore, we cannot offer tax agreements that do not demonstrate a benefit to all citizens.

Liberal: Recent discussions with First Nations chiefs shed light on the gaps that existed in the previous provincial tax agreements with First Nations. Our party is committed to negotiating and establishing new tax agreements with First Nations that address the local needs and priorities and ensure all parties have a fair deal.

Green: The Green Party is committed to fostering a respectful relationship with First Nations in New Brunswick and strongly opposes Premier Blaine Higgs’s decision to end tax-sharing agreements. We believe reinstating these agreements is crucial for supporting the economic development and job creation in First Nation communities.

Q: How will your party ensure more meaningful participation of Indigenous communities in provincial land use and resource management decision-making?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick has invested significant resources in developing a robust duty to consult and engagement process. We are interested in fully involving First Nations in the development of natural resources, including natural gas development. We believe that the development of natural gas is better for the environment — because it allows for the shutdown of coal-fired power plants all over the globe — and it allows for a meaningful step along the path to reconciliation.

Liberal: Our party is focused on building strong relations with First Nations and their representatives based on mutual respect and a nation-to-nation relationship, with a shared understanding of treaty obligations and a recognition of your rights. This includes having First Nations at the table and engaged on all files, including land-use and resource management.

Green: We will develop a new Crown lands management framework with First Nations, focusing on shared management that respects the Peace and Friendship Treaties. We will enhance consultation by developing parameters for meaningful consultation with First Nations that will include a dispute resolution mechanism, so the courts become the last resort, not the default in the face of disagreements.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canadian Coast Guard crew member lost at sea off Newfoundland

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – A crew member of a Canadian Coast Guard ship has been lost at sea off southern Newfoundland.

The agency said in a release Wednesday that an extensive search and rescue effort for the man was ended Tuesday evening.

He was reported missing on Monday morning when the CCGS Vincent Massey arrived in St. John’s, N.L.

The coast guard says there was an “immediate” search on the vessel for the crew member and when he wasn’t located the sea and air search began.

Wednesday’s announcement said the agency was “devastated to confirm” the crew member had been lost at sea, adding that decisions to end searches are “never taken lightly.”

The coast guard says the employee was last seen on board Sunday evening as the vessel sailed along the northeast coast of Newfoundland.

Spokeswoman Kariane Charron says no other details are being provided at this time and that the RCMP will be investigating the matter as a missing person case.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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