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Why the stock market is outperforming the economy: Morning Brief – Yahoo Canada Finance

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<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Tuesday, May 26, 2020” data-reactid=”16″>Tuesday, May 26, 2020

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET.&nbsp;” data-reactid=”17″>Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET. 

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<h2 class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Corporate profits look better than expected, the economy looks worse than expected” data-reactid=”19″>Corporate profits look better than expected, the economy looks worse than expected

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="During the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, economic and market forecasters were flying blind.” data-reactid=”20″>During the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, economic and market forecasters were flying blind.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Accelerating numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases along with sudden lockdowns around the globe made it impossible to estimate with any accuracy the kind of impact economies and businesses would see.” data-reactid=”21″>Accelerating numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases along with sudden lockdowns around the globe made it impossible to estimate with any accuracy the kind of impact economies and businesses would see.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="As preliminary March data — which captured the earliest impacts of these lockdowns — started to trickle in, forecasters were quick to slash their expectations. Economists predicted depression-like numbers and the financial market pros predicted earnings would crash.” data-reactid=”22″>As preliminary March data — which captured the earliest impacts of these lockdowns — started to trickle in, forecasters were quick to slash their expectations. Economists predicted depression-like numbers and the financial market pros predicted earnings would crash.

Now, after two months and many economic and earnings reports later, two narratives have emerged: the U.S. economy as a whole is in worse shape than expected, and the profits of America’s biggest corporations are doing better than expected.

<h3 class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="The economy looks worse” data-reactid=”24″>The economy looks worse

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Following the releases of April economic numbers, including dismal jobs numbers and disastrous retail numbers, economists revised their forecasts even lower.” data-reactid=”25″>Following the releases of April economic numbers, including dismal jobs numbers and disastrous retail numbers, economists revised their forecasts even lower.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="On May 12, Goldman Sachs cut its GDP forecasts and while warning the unemployment rate would spike to 25%. The same day Goldman cut its forecasts, Credit Suisse economists made similar cuts while warning “a longer growth slump will outlast fiscal relief.”” data-reactid=”26″>On May 12, Goldman Sachs cut its GDP forecasts and while warning the unemployment rate would spike to 25%. The same day Goldman cut its forecasts, Credit Suisse economists made similar cuts while warning “a longer growth slump will outlast fiscal relief.”

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="BofA economists lowered their GDP estimates last Wednesday, warning that GDP in Q2 would fall at a 40% rate while saying the recession will be “unlike anything we have seen in modern history.”” data-reactid=”27″>BofA economists lowered their GDP estimates last Wednesday, warning that GDP in Q2 would fall at a 40% rate while saying the recession will be “unlike anything we have seen in modern history.”

And just on Friday, JPMorgan economists cut their 2021 GDP forecasts while warning the unemployment rate would stay above 10% through at least the end of the year.

<h3 class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Big companies are doing better” data-reactid=”29″>Big companies are doing better

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Through Friday, 97% of S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC) companies had announced their Q1 financial results, including many retailers whose quarters went through April.” data-reactid=”30″>Through Friday, 97% of S&P 500 (^GSPC) companies had announced their Q1 financial results, including many retailers whose quarters went through April.

And these numbers have mostly been better than expected.

“Although aggregate earnings are beating estimates by +2.6%, ex-Financials, earnings are surpassing expectations by +7.1%, with 65% of companies exceeding their lowered projections,” Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Golub wrote on Friday.

To be clear, it looks like earnings per share will have been down by around 14% in Q1. But the takeaway is that analysts were expecting worse.

“Expectations were -10.5% at the end of March, and -25.3% when 1Q reporting season began,” Golub added.

These better-than-expected earnings results help, in part, explain the rebound in the stock market.

The U.S. economy appears to be in worse shape than expected. (AP)
The U.S. economy appears to be in worse shape than expected. (AP)

<h3 class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Bigger companies cash in as their smaller competitors struggle” data-reactid=”47″>Bigger companies cash in as their smaller competitors struggle

We’re aware that Corporate America is a part of the U.S. economy, and so these stories aren’t mutually exclusive. Still, these diverging narratives call attention to the fact that big companies have massive advantages in the current environment as everyone else struggles to keep up.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="With many small businesses shuttered and tens of millions of Americans workers headed to the unemployment office, government stimulus checks have made their way to big retailers like Amazon and Walmart, which both reported blowout quarterly numbers.” data-reactid=”49″>With many small businesses shuttered and tens of millions of Americans workers headed to the unemployment office, government stimulus checks have made their way to big retailers like Amazon and Walmart, which both reported blowout quarterly numbers.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="“The stimulus might as well be called the Amazon and Walmart shareholder act,” NYU professor Scott Galloway said to Yahoo Finance. “There are some unintended consequences here. The strong are getting stronger.”” data-reactid=”50″>“The stimulus might as well be called the Amazon and Walmart shareholder act,” NYU professor Scott Galloway said to Yahoo Finance. “There are some unintended consequences here. The strong are getting stronger.”

For Galloway, what’s happening in business now was inevitable. “The future doesn’t look any different. It’s just being accelerated faster… After 11 years of a bull economy, a lot of these small businesses quite frankly just shouldn’t be around. And they have to adapt and reshape.”

However, many would contend that it’s unreasonable for all businesses to have prepared a financial buffer for a pandemic that led to an unexpected, fragmented, government-mandated, months-long economic shutdown.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="“We let big box retailers stay open because they sell essential goods, but they also sell the same nonessential goods that small stores — who were forced to close — normally do,” Gary Cohn, former director of the National Economic Council recently tweeted. “We can’t let this run small stores out of business and need to make sure we level the playing field.“” data-reactid=”57″>“We let big box retailers stay open because they sell essential goods, but they also sell the same nonessential goods that small stores — who were forced to close — normally do,” Gary Cohn, former director of the National Economic Council recently tweeted. “We can’t let this run small stores out of business and need to make sure we level the playing field.“

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="By Sam Ro, managing editor. Follow him at @SamRo” data-reactid=”58″>By Sam Ro, managing editor. Follow him at @SamRo

What to watch today

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Economy” data-reactid=”60″>Economy

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, April (-4.19 in March)

  • 9 a.m. ET: FHFA House Price Index month-on-month, March (+0.6% expected, +0.7% in February)

  • 9 a.m. ET: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City home price index MoM SA, March (0.3% estimated, 0.45% in February); S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA, March (3.4% estimated, 3.47% in February)

  • 10 a.m. Conference Board Consumer Confidence, May (87.5 expected, 86.9 in April)

  • 10 a.m. ET: New Home Sales, April (500,000 expected, 627,000 in March); New Home Sales month-on-month, April (-20.3% expected, -15.4% in March)

  • 10:30 a.m. ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, May (-73.7 in April)

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Earnings” data-reactid=”68″>Earnings

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Pre-market” data-reactid=”69″>Pre-market

  • 6:55 a.m. ET: AutoZone (AZO) before market open

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="READ MORE” data-reactid=”72″>READ MORE

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<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="European stocks rise as all UK shops allowed to reopen next month [Yahoo Finance UK]” data-reactid=”74″>European stocks rise as all UK shops allowed to reopen next month [Yahoo Finance UK]

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<h2 class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="YAHOO FINANCE HIGHLIGHTS” data-reactid=”78″>YAHOO FINANCE HIGHLIGHTS

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<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Editor’s note: Morning Brief will be observing Memorial Day. We will return Tuesday, May 26.” data-reactid=”83″>Editor’s note: Morning Brief will be observing Memorial Day. We will return Tuesday, May 26.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, SmartNews, LinkedIn, YouTube, and reddit.” data-reactid=”85″>Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, SmartNews, LinkedIn, YouTube, and reddit.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Find live stock market quotes and the latest business and finance news” data-reactid=”86″>Find live stock market quotes and the latest business and finance news

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="For tutorials and information on investing and trading stocks, check out&nbsp;Cashay” data-reactid=”87″>For tutorials and information on investing and trading stocks, check out Cashay

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Austrian economy might not shrink as much as previously forecast: ONB – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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BERLIN (Reuters) – Austria’s economy could shrink by around 6% this year, the Austrian National Bank on Friday, striking a more optimistic tone than in early June, when it had forecast a 7.2% decline.

It said weekly real-time gross domestic product (GDP) data showed the Alpine republic’s economy was recovering faster than expected.

“As long as we avoid a strong second wave of COVID-19 infections, the collapse in Austria’s economy in 2020 could be less severe than had been expected in our forecast in early June,” the ONB said.

It warned that the risks related to the forecast for a 6% contraction remained clearly to the downside though.

(Reporting by Michelle Martin; editing by Thomas Seythal)

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Japan's spending slump eases as economy reopens, COVID-19 clouds outlook – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Leika Kihara

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s household spending fell at a much slower pace in June than in the previous month as the economy re-opened from lockdown measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic, offering some hope of a moderate recovery later this year.

But the recovery was driven largely by the government’s blanket cash payouts to households, which were spent on big ticket items like television sets, personal computers and sofas.

That cast some doubt on the sustainability of the rebound, particuarly as rising COVID-19 infections nationwide have forced the government to request citizens hold off on unnecessary travel and work from home as much as possible.

“The rebound in consumption was stronger than expected, so we may see the economy pick up faster than initially thought,” said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“But renewed rises in infection numbers are worrying. It’s too early to be optimistic on the outlook.”

Household spending in June declined 1.2% from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, less than a median market forecast for a 7.5% drop.

It followed a record 16.2% drop in May, when consumers were still heeding authorities’ calls to stay home to contain the pandemic. Those emergency steps were lifted in late May.

Compared with the previous month, household spending jumped 13.0% in June to mark the biggest increase on record as the government’s cash payouts offset a steady drop in regular wages.

The payouts helped push spending on air conditioners up by nearly 30% in June, television sets by 83%, and tables and sofas by two-fold, the data showed.

But inflation-adjusted real wages fell for the fourth consecutive month in June, clouding the outlook for an economy bracing for a prolonged impact from the pandemic.

The fallout from the pandemic has pushed Japan deeper into recession, hitting an economy already reeling from the damage to consumption and exports from last year’s tax hike and slumping overseas demand.

(Reporting by Leika Kihara; additional reporting by Daniel Leussink; editing by Jane Wardell)

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Lebanon's economy was already in crisis. Then the blast hit Beirut – CNN

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On Tuesday, a massive explosion at the city’s port left at least 135 people dead and 5,000 injured. The number of deaths is expected to climb as search-and-rescue efforts continue.
The blast, which also leveled huge swaths of Beirut and displaced 300,000 people, couldn’t come at a worse moment.
In the past year, a breakdown in the country’s banking system and skyrocketing inflation had triggered mass protests. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, the World Bank projected that 45% of people in Lebanon would be below the poverty line in 2020.
“It’s an economic crisis, a financial crisis, a political crisis, a health crisis and now this horrible explosion,” said Tamara Alrifai, spokesperson at the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East.
Dumpster diving, blackouts and suicides. Lebanon's woes laid bare as crisis deepens
European and Gulf countries have sent aid to help Lebanon manage the fallout from the blast, and the country’s central bank instructed lenders to make zero-interest dollar loans to be repaid over the next five years so people and businesses can rebuild. But it’s expected to fall far short of what the country needs to pull back from the brink, and some donors may be deterred by widespread corruption and mismanagement.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who was mobbed by angry crowds during a tour of devastated Beirut neighborhoods on Thursday, said France would provide medication and food, but not via corrupt officials.
“This aid, I guarantee it, won’t end up in corrupt hands,” he told Lebanese protesters, according to a spokesperson.
Macron told reporters later that France would help organize an international conference to raise funds for Lebanon. He promised “clear and transparent governance, whether it’s French or international” to ensure the money is “directly provided to the local population, the NGOs and teams on site that need it.”

Economy in free fall

The economic situation in Lebanon was grim before the explosion.
The International Monetary Fund last forecast that Lebanon’s economy — beset by soaring food prices, a collapsing currency and Covid-19 — would contract by 12% this year. That’s far worse than the 4.7% average drop in output forecast for the Middle East and central Asia.
The country defaulted on some of its debt in March. And last week, Moody’s cut Lebanon’s credit rating to its lowest rank. It’s now on par with Venezuela.
“The country is steeped in an economic, financial and social crisis, which very weak institutions … appear unable to address,” Moody’s said in a statement. The currency’s collapse and the related surge in inflation create a “highly unstable environment,” it continued.
Lebanon had been looking to secure a $10 billion loan from the IMF, but talks stalled last month.
On Thursday, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva called for “national unity” to address the country’s deep crisis, and she said the agency is “exploring all possible ways to support the people of Lebanon.”
“It is essential to overcome the impasse in the discussions on critical reforms and put in place a meaningful program to turn around the economy and build accountability and trust in the future of the country,” she added.
The explosion in Beirut, which has been declared a “disaster city,” will only pile more pressure on the economy.
“There is not one apartment in Beirut that wasn’t impacted, not one [business] that wasn’t impacted — whether the storefront [or] the goods,” Lebanon’s Economy Minister Raoul Nehme told CNBC Arabia on Wednesday.
The port where the blast occurred is the nation’s main maritime hub, and 60% of the country’s imports pass through it. Nehme said it has been “practically erased.”
Tourism accounted for nearly a fifth of Lebanon’s GDP in 2018, when two million people visited the country. That sector has suffered another huge hit.
“It’s a disaster for Lebanon,” said Pierre Achkar, head of the Lebanon Hotel Federation for Tourism. He said occupancy rates at the hotels still open had already slumped to 5% and 15% because of coronavirus and political issues.
Achkar told the state news agency NNA on Wednesday that the explosion damaged 90% of the hotels in Beirut.
— Chris Liakos, Nada AlThaher, Schams Elwazer, Barbara Wojazer and Sharon Braithwaite contributed to this article.

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